Parameter Estimation for Groundwater Models under Uncertain Irrigation Data

The success of modeling groundwater is strongly influenced by the accuracy of the model parameters that are used to characterize the subsurface system. However, the presence of uncertainty and possibly bias in groundwater model source/sink terms may lead to biased estimates of model parameters and model predictions when the standard regression‐based inverse modeling techniques are used. This study first quantifies the levels of bias in groundwater model parameters and predictions due to the presence of errors in irrigation data. Then, a new inverse modeling technique called input uncertainty weighted least‐squares (IUWLS) is presented for unbiased estimation of the parameters when pumping and other source/sink data are uncertain. The approach uses the concept of generalized least‐squares method with the weight of the objective function depending on the level of pumping uncertainty and iteratively adjusted during the parameter optimization process. We have conducted both analytical and numerical experiments, using irrigation pumping data from the Republican River Basin in Nebraska, to evaluate the performance of ordinary least‐squares (OLS) and IUWLS calibration methods under different levels of uncertainty of irrigation data and calibration conditions. The result from the OLS method shows the presence of statistically significant (p < 0.05) bias in estimated parameters and model predictions that persist despite calibrating the models to different calibration data and sample sizes. However, by directly accounting for the irrigation pumping uncertainties during the calibration procedures, the proposed IUWLS is able to minimize the bias effectively without adding significant computational burden to the calibration processes.     

On the material dependence of experimental shear fracture orientation

It is not uncommon to observe shear fractures in ductile rocks oriented at more than 45° with respect to the maximum compression direction. Since these orientations cannot be explained with the classic Mohr-Coulumb or Tresca yield criteria, Zheng et al.(Journal of Structural Geology, 35: 1394–1405, 2011) proposed the maximum effective moment(MEM) failure criterion. This rule suggests that shear fractures in ductile rocks form at ?55° with the maximum compression axis and that this orientation is material-independent and, therefore, universal. Zheng et al.(Science China: Earth Sciences, 57(11): 2819–2824, 2014) used data from our own experiments as supporting evidence of their failure criterion. In this contribution we discuss why shear fracture formation in ductile rocks indeed strongly depends on the mechanical properties of the deforming medium, and why experimental data should not be taken to prove the validity of the MEM criterion. The formation mechanisms and orientations of shear fractures in our experiments significantly vary depending on the material strength and degree and type of anisotropy(composite and intrinsic). We therefore demonstrate using experimental data that a universal failure angle in ductile and anisotropic rocks does not apply. Additionally, we highlight some inconsistencies of the MEM criterion.     

Seasonal and event-controlled export of organic matter from the shelf towards the Gulf of Lions continental slope

To investigate the role of coastal canyons in the transfer of organic matter from the shelf to the slope and basin, we deployed sediment trap/current meter pairs at the head of five canyons in the Gulf of Lions (GoL) between November 2003 and May 2004. Analysis of organic carbon, biogenic silica, Corg isotopic composition, Corg/total nitrogen, chloropigments, and amino acids clearly shows the seasonal influence and effect of extreme meteorological events on the composition of collected particles. The sampling period was divided into three “scenarios”. The first corresponded to a large easterly storm and flood of the Rhone river during stratified water column conditions; the composition of material collected during this event was influenced by increased transfer of riverine and coastal particulate matter, with a lower Corg content. During the second “fall-winter” scenario, northern and northwestern winds blowing over the shelf caused cooling and homogenization of the shelf water column; particles collected at this time reflected the homogeneous source of particulate matter transported through canyons; particles sitting in the vicinity of canyon heads are most likely swept downslope by the general south-westward circulation. Organic tracers indicate a degraded origin for organic matter transported during this period. A third “spring” scenario corresponded to northern winds alternating with eastward windstorms that triggered and/or enhanced the cascading of dense waters accumulated on the bottom of the shelf due to previous cooling. These conditions occurred in conjunction with increased phytoplankton productivity in shelf surface waters. Organic matter advected mainly by dense shelf water cascading was fresher due to the transport of newly produced particles and a variable terrestrial fraction; this fraction depended on the proportion of resuspended material accumulated during previous high discharge periods that was involved in each transport pulse. The tight link shown between meteorological conditions and organic matter transport is important for continental margin geochemical studies as future changes in climatic conditions may lead to dramatic changes in carbon sequestration capability and in the ecosystems of deep margin environments.     

Tectonic controls on carbonate sequence formation in an active strike–slip setting: Serranilla Basin, Northern Nicaragua Rise, Western Caribbean Sea

The Serranilla Basin is a flat-floored, semi-circular bathymetric depression (100×100 km; 1100–1200 m deep) at the western end of the northern Nicaragua Rise (NNR) in the Caribbean Sea. It is bound to the north by the Cayman Trough, an area of active sea floor spreading, and is part of the Northern Caribbean Plate Boundary Zone (NCPBZ). Single-channel, high-resolution seismic data were calibrated to rock dredges and ODP Site 1000 to define the geologic evolution and attempt to tie sequence formation within the basin to tectonic developments in this part of the Caribbean. Five seismic sequences were identified within the basin. The two lower sequences (A and B) are interpreted as neritic and shallow periplatform deposits which infill three distinct basins that make up the early to late Miocene Serranilla Basin. The three upper sequences (C through E) are interpreted as periplatform and pelagic deposits interspersed with turbidites, and in some areas, megabreccias. Faulting is prevalent in sequences A through C in the central basin, and becomes progressively younger toward the south, disrupting the seafloor in places and perhaps indicating renewed activity along the Pedro Fracture Zone. The timing of sequence boundary formation has been correlated to tectonic activity along the NCPBZ and closure of the Central American Seaway. Possible mechanisms of sequence boundary formation include tectonic tilting within the basin in conjunction with increased turbidite deposition, carbonate platform drowning and subsequent back-stepping associated with circulation changes resulting from tectonic ‘gateway' closure, and megabreccia deposition associated with bank demise. Although a direct genetic relationship is not proven, regional tectonic changes are considered more important than eustatic sea-level changes in controlling depositional sequence formation in the Serranilla Basin.     

SWAT模型在斯里兰卡河流径流预测中的运用

本文运用SWAT模型和新安江模型对斯里兰卡卡鲁河流域上游地区日径流进行了预测.卡鲁河是斯里兰卡的第二大河,由于流域的降雨量很大,上游地区河流沿峡谷流下,中下游平原地区河床平坦.卡鲁河流域的洪水变的很正常.应用SWAT模型来对卡鲁河的日径流量进行预测,并同应用新安江模型所得到的结果做对比.研究表明,新安江模型要比SWAT (分布式水文模型)模型在卡鲁河日径流量预测上稍微好一些.实际上,或许数据质量不高或不恰当是部分原因,因为SWAT的输出成果严格取决于其输入的数据质量.此外,在斯里兰卡,许多人的日常用水是靠井水.当把流域看作一个整体,通常都是一个很大的范围,那样的话就不可能详尽的记录所有各个小规模的水利用,例如:小灌溉、小规模的家畜管理和工业水利用.这些水利用累积起来或许就很可观.这些数据的缺失对分布式水文模型在水平衡的应用有着独特的影响.但是概念水文模型(如新安江模型)可以根据实际情况在校正中调节它的参数,因为这些参数并没有实质的物理含义.因此,在流域特征和模型输入数据有限或不完整的情况下,概念水文模型比分布式水文模型更具优势.     

East Asian monsoon intensification promoted weathering of the magnesium-rich southern China upper crust and its global significance

The Oligocene-Miocene boundary Asian climatic reorganization linked to the northward migration of the East Asian monsoon into subtropical China is a potentially important but poorly constrained atmospheric CO_2 consumption process.Here,we performed a first-order estimate of the CO_2 consumption induced by silicate chemical weathering and organic carbon burial in subtropical China related to this climatic reorganization.Our results show that an increase in long-term CO_2 consumption by silicate weathering varies from 0.06×10~(12)to 0.87×10~(12)mol yr~(-1)depending on erosion flux reconstructions,with an~50%contribution of Mg-silicate weathering since the late Oligocene.The organic carbon burial flux is approximately 25% of the contemporary CO_2 consumption by silicate weathering.The results highlight the significant role of weathering of the Mg-rich upper continental crust in East China,which would contribute to the rapid decline in atmospheric CO_2 during the late Oligocene and the Neogene rise in the seawater Mg content.If this climatic reorganization was mainly induced by the Tibetan Plateau uplift,our study suggests that the growth of the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau can lead to indirect modification of the global carbon and magnesium cycles by changing the regional hydrological cycle in areas of East Asia that are tectonically less active.     

Scaling Variances of Scalars in a Convective Boundary Layer Under Different Entrainment Regimes

For the presentation and analysis of atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) data, scales are used to non-dimensionalise the observed quantities and independent variables. Usually, the ABL height, surface sensible heat flux and surface scalar flux are used. This works well, so long as the absolute values of the entrainment ratio for both the scalar and temperature are similar. The entrainment ratio for temperature naturally ranges from −0.4 to −0.1. However, the entrainment ratio for passive scalars can vary widely in magnitude and sign. Then the entrainment flux becomes relevant as well. The only customary scalar scale that takes into account both the surface flux and the entrainment flux is the bulk scalar scale, but this scale is not well-behaved for large negative entrainment ratios and for an entrainment ratio equal to −1. We derive a new scalar scale, using previously published large-eddy simulation results for the convective ABL. The scale is derived under the constraint that scaled scalar variance profiles are similar at those heights where the variance producing mechanisms are identical (i.e., either near the entrainment layer or near the surface). The new scale takes into account that scalar variance in the ABL is not only related to the surface flux of that scalar, but to the scalar entrainment flux as well. Furthermore, it takes into account that the production of variance by the entrainment flux is an order of magnitude larger than the production of variance by the surface flux (per unit flux). Other desirable features of the new scale are that it is always positive (which is relevant when scaling standard deviations) and that the scaled variances are always of order 1–10.