Multi-Physics ensemble prediction of tropical cyclone movement over Bay of Bengal

Ensemble prediction methodology based on variations in physical process parameterizations in tropical cyclone track prediction has been assessed. Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model with 30-km resolution was used to make 5-day simulation of the movement of Orissa super cyclone (1999), one of the most intense tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean. Altogether 36 ensemble members with all possible combinations of three cumulus convection, two planetary boundary layer and six cloud microphysics parameterization schemes were produced. A comparison of individual members indicated that Kain–Fritsch cumulus convection scheme, Mellor–Yamada–Janjic planetary boundary layer scheme and Purdue Lin cloud microphysics scheme showed better performance. The best possible ensemble formulation is identified based on SPREAD and root mean square error (RMSE). While the individual members had track errors ranging from 96–240 km at 24 h to 50–803 km at 120 h, most of the ensemble predictions show significant betterment with mean errors less than 130 km up to 120 h. The convection ensembles had large spread of the cluster, and boundary layer ensembles had significant error disparity, indicating their important roles in the movement of tropical cyclones. Six-member ensemble predictions with cloud microphysics schemes of LIN, WSM5, and WSM6 produce the best predictions with least of RMSE, and large SPREAD indicates the need for inclusion of all possible hydrometeors in the simulation and that six-member ensemble is sufficient to produce the best ensemble prediction of tropical cyclone tracks over Bay of Bengal.     

Implications of vortex initialization and model spin-up in tropical cyclone prediction using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model

The roles of vortex initialization and model spin-up in tropical cyclone (TC) prediction using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) Model are studied through a case study of NARGIS (2008) cyclone over Bay of Bengal. ARW model is designed to have three two-way interactive nested domains, and a suite of 36 numerical experiments are performed with three values of maximum wind (MW), four of radius of maximum wind (RMW), and three of α and one experiment without vortex initialization. The results indicate that vortex initialization is important toward realistic representation of initial structure and location of cyclone vortex. Model spin-up during the first 18–24 h of model integration lead to faster intensification than of the real atmosphere, thus a weaker initial vortex evolved more realistically. Three experiments from vortex initialization produced MW and RMW nearer to the observations, but none of these produced a good prediction due to unrealistic intensification during model spin-up. A weaker vortex with intensity less than 50 % than observations produced the best forecast in terms of intensity, track, and landfall. The results suggest that slightly larger (~30 %) RMW than observations with α as ?0.5 (for 81 km model resolution) that produces weaker vortex is to be implemented in the design of bogus vortex. This study assesses the merits of TC bogus scheme in ARW model, illustrates the need for vortex initialization, and analyzes the spin-up problem in cold-start model simulations of TC prediction.     

Redistribution of riverine and rainfall freshwater by the Bay of Bengal circulation

Ocean Dynamics - We use satellite-derived currents and a Lagrangian approach to investigate the redistribution of the precipitation minus evaporation (P-E) and river freshwater inputs into Bay of...     

Agricultural drought assessment at disaggregated level using AWiFS/WiFS data of Indian Remote Sensing satellites

Spatial differences in drought proneness and intensity of drought caused by differences in cropping patterns and crop growing environments within a district indicate the need for agricultural drought assessment at disaggregated level. The objective of this study is to use moderate resolution satellite images for detailed assessment of the agricultural drought situation at different administrative units (blocks) within a district. Monthly time composite NDVI images derived from moderate resolution AWiFS (60 m) and WiFS (180 m) images from Indian Remote Sensing satellites were analysed along with ground data on rainfall and crop sown areas for the kharif seasons (June – November) of 2002 (drought year), 2004 (early season drought) and 2005 (good monsoon year). The impact of the 2002 meteorological drought on crop area in different blocks of the district was assessed. The amplitude of crop condition variability in a severe drought year (2002) and a good year (2005) was used to map the degree of vulnerability of different blocks in the district to agricultural drought. The impact of early season deficit rainfall in 2004 on the agricultural situation and subsequent recovery of the agricultural situation was clearly shown. Agricultural drought assessment at disaggregated level using moderate resolution images is useful for prioritizing the problem areas within a district to undertake, in season drought management plans, such as alternate cropping strategies, as well as for end of the season drought relief management actions. The availability of ground data on rainfall, cropping pattern, crop calendar, irrigation, soil type etc., is very crucial in order to interpret the seasonal NDVI patterns at disaggregated level for drought assessment. The SWIR band of AWiFS sensor is a potential data source for assessing surface drought at the beginning of the season.     

‘Thermohaline front’ off the east coast of India and its generating mechanism

Physical oceanography measurements reveal a strong salinity (0.18 psu km⁻¹) and temperature (0.07 °C km⁻¹) front off the east coast of India in December 1997. T–S diagrams suggest lateral mixing between the fresh water at the coast and the ambient warmer, saltier water. This front seems to be the result of southward advection of fresh and cool water, formed in the northern Bay of Bengal during the monsoon, by the East Indian Coastal Current, as suggested by the large-scale salinity structure in the SODA re-analysis and the anti-cyclonic gyre in the northwestern Bay of Bengal during winter. The data further reveals an offshore front in January, which appears to be the result of a meso-scale re-circulation around an eddy, bringing cold and freshwater from the northern Bay of Bengal further away from the shore. Our cruise data hence illustrates that very strong salinity fronts can appear in the Bay of Bengal after the monsoon, as a result of intense coastal circulation and stirring by eddies.

     

Role of Nitrogen Oxides,Black Carbon,and Meteorological Parameters on the Variation of Surface Ozone Levels at a Tropical Urban Site – Hyderabad,India

In this study, temporal variations of surface ozone (O₃) were investigated at tropical urban site of Hyderabad during the year 2009. O₃, oxides of nitrogen (NO_x = NO + NO₂), black carbon (BC), and meteorological parameters were continuously monitored at the established air monitoring station. Results revealed the production of surface O₃ from NO₂ through photochemical oxidation. Averaged datasets illustrated the variations in ground‐level concentrations of these air pollutants along different time scales. Maximum mean concentrations of O₃ (56.75 ppbv) and NO_x (8.9 ppbv) were observed in summer. Diurnal‐seasonal changes in surface O₃ and NO_x concentrations were explicated with complex atmospheric chemistry, boundary layer dynamics, and local meteorology. In addition, nocturnal chemistry of NO_x played a decisive role in the formation of O₃ during day time. Mean BC mass concentration in winter (10.92 µg m^?3) was high during morning hours. Heterogeneous chemistry of BC on O₃ destruction and NO_x formation was elucidated. Apart from these local observations, long‐range transport of trace gases and BC aerosols were evidenced from air mass back trajectories. Further, statistical modeling was performed to predict O₃ using multi‐linear regression method, which resulted in 91% of the overall variance.     

多波束测深系统内部参数的设定与校准

以EM710RD多波束测深系统为例,通过高精度测量获得的系统参数,对该系统内部参数的设定与校准过程进行详细分析,从而为多波束测量外业工作提供参考依据。     

冀北火山岩型铀矿地球化学评价指标研究

冀北地区是火山岩型铀矿的有利产出区域,本文以该区的水系沉积物区域化探数据与典型铀矿矿区岩石和土壤地球化学数据为研究基础,建立适用于火山岩型铀矿的地球化学勘查评价指标。含矿围岩富铀、钍、硅、钾。铀富集于粗粒级(-4～+20目)水系沉积物和细粒级(-100目)土壤。因此,粗粒级水系沉积物是区域测量的有效采样介质,细粒级土壤是矿区测量的有效采样介质。火山岩型铀矿直接的特征指示元素为U和Mo,其它伴生元素还有Th、La、Hg、Sb、Zr、B、F等。该指标的建立对冀北地区及北方火山岩型铀矿勘查评价具有实际意义。     

山东半岛东北部新发现近EW向活断层

山东半岛东北部地区晚第四纪的构造活动以整体性抬升为主,内部的断裂活动相对较弱,晚更新世以来的断裂活动仅分布在局部地区,新发现的东殿后断裂是其中的1条。断裂总体走向近EW,全长约20km,地貌上表现为由3条河流上游组成的谷地。断裂错断的最新地层的热释光年龄为84～75kaBP,上覆坡积角砾层的热释光年龄为64kaBP,断裂发育的松软断层泥的热释光年龄为82kaBP。断裂的剖面特征和断盖地层的年龄表明,东殿后断裂的最新活动时代是晚更新世早中期,垂直活动速率不<016mm/a,晚更新世晚期以来停止活动;断裂的最大潜在地震为6级     

Modelling of Riparian-Imitated Constructed Wetland for Fish Habitat

This paper presents a hydrodynamic-based investigation of constructed wetland suitability for fish habitat. A constructed wetland adjacent to river is manoeuvred to imitate riparian fish habitat by means of computer modelling. Flow-velocity conditions, water depths and effects of macrophytes to resistance of flow in constructed wetland are modelled and steered towards creating a favourable ground for natural substrate spawning of native fish species. The model suggests combination of two zones, which are a macrophyte zone for typical functions of a wetland and an open water zone with gravel bed to support fish reproductive cycles.