水库库容变化对蓟县地震台DSQ型水管倾斜仪观测的影响

对比于桥水库库容变化与蓟县地震台DSQ型水管仪观测数据表明,水库容量对水管仪长周期趋势性变化影响不大,蓄水和泄水过程中库容量变化与水管仪观测数据不存在相关关系。根据近场三维不规则形状荷载模型,对于于桥水库3次蓄水和3次泄水过程,定量计算库容变化对蓟县地震台DSQ型水管倾斜仪观测影响的理论值,结果表明,库容变化引起的水管仪倾斜值与实际观测数据变化幅度相比小得多,库容改变不足以对水管仪倾斜观测造成显著干扰。该分析结果可在观测资料异常判定中提供参考。     

A depth‐averaged two‐phase model for debris flows over erodible beds

Mass exchange between debris flow and the bed plays a vital role in debris flow dynamics. Here a depth‐averaged two‐phase model is proposed for debris flows over erodible beds. Compared to previous depth‐averaged two‐phase models, the present model features a physical step forward by explicitly incorporating the mass exchange between the flow and the bed. A widely used closure model in fluvial hydraulics is employed to estimate the mass exchange between the debris flow and the bed, and an existing relationship for bed entrainment rate is introduced for comparison. Also, two distinct closure models for the bed shear stresses are evaluated. One uses the Coulomb friction law and Manning's equation to determine the solid and fluid resistances respectively, while the other employs an analytically derived formula for the solid phase and the mixing length approach for the fluid phase. A well‐balanced numerical algorithm is applied to solve the governing equations of the model. The present model is first shown to reproduce average sediment concentrations in steady and uniform debris flows over saturated bed as compared to an existing formula underpinned by experimental datasets. Then, it is demonstrated to perform rather well as compared to the full set of USGS large‐scale experimental debris flows over erodible beds, in producing debris flow depth, front location and bed deformation. The effects of initial conditions on debris flow mass and momentum gain are resolved by the present model, which explicitly demonstrates the roles of the wetness, porosity and volume of bed sediments in affecting the flow. By virtue of extended modeling cases, the present model produces debris flow efficiency that, as revealed by existing observations and empirical relations, increases with initial volume, which is enhanced by mass gain from the bed. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

乌梁素海悬浮颗粒物和沉积物有机碳同位素特征及来源

悬浮颗粒物和沉积物是湖泊有机污染物的主要承载物质,其稳定同位素研究对有效识别有机质污染导致的湖泊富营养化具有重要意义.本研究选取乌梁素海为研究区,于2019年4月（融冰期）、7月（夏灌期）和10月（秋灌期）对湖区及入湖渠道的表层沉积物和悬浮颗粒物中有机碳的δ¹³C、C/N比及总有机碳（TOC、POC）和总氮（TON、PON）含量进行测定分析,联合采用δ¹³C、C/N及同位素多元混合模型研究湖泊有机碳来源及其贡献率.结果表明,乌梁素海悬浮颗粒物有机碳δ¹³C_POC的变化范围为-23.29‰~-29.75‰,呈现10月>4月>7月、入湖渠道>湖区的趋势,悬浮颗粒物POC/PON比变化范围为4.10~21.35,呈现出4月<7月<10月的时间变化,悬浮颗粒有机质主要来源于浮游植物（51.59%）、入湖渠道泥沙（34.60%）和大型水生植物（13.76%）.沉积物有机碳δ¹³C_TOC变化范围为-27.58‰~-22.68‰,呈现4月<10月<7月的变化,沉积物TOC/TON比变化范围为3.06~23.77,时空变化明显,沉积物有机质则主要源于入湖渠道挟带的泥沙,贡献达72.79%以上,而浮游植物与大型水生植物的贡献率相差较小,分别为11.85%和15.36%.本研究可以初步判定受入湖渠道影响的富营养化湖泊中悬浮颗粒物和沉积物有机碳来源,为改善湖泊有机污染和研究有机碳来源提供更多理解.     

Interaction of multiple courses of wave‐induced fluid flow in layered porous media

Different theoretical and laboratory studies on the propagation of elastic waves in layered hydrocarbon reservoir have shown characteristic velocity dispersion and attenuation of seismic waves. The wave‐induced fluid flow between mesoscopic‐scale heterogeneities (larger than the pore size but smaller than the predominant wavelengths) is the most important cause of attenuation for frequencies below 1 kHz. Most studies on mesoscopic wave‐induced fluid flow in the seismic frequency band are based on the representative elementary volume, which does not consider interaction of fluid flow due to the symmetrical structure of representative elementary volume. However, in strongly heterogeneous media with unsymmetrical structures, different courses of wave‐induced fluid flow may lead to the interaction of the fluid flux in the seismic band; this has not yet been explored. This paper analyses the interaction of different courses of wave‐induced fluid flow in layered porous media. We apply a one‐dimensional finite‐element numerical creep test based on Biot's theory of consolidation to obtain the fluid flux in the frequency domain. The characteristic frequency of the fluid flux and the strain rate tensor are introduced to characterise the interaction of different courses of fluid flux. We also compare the behaviours of characteristic frequencies and the strain rate tensor on two scales: the local scale and the global scale. It is shown that, at the local scale, the interaction between different courses of fluid flux is a dynamic process, and the weak fluid flux and corresponding characteristic frequencies contain detailed information about the interaction of the fluid flux. At the global scale, the averaged strain rate tensor can facilitate the identification of the interaction degree of the fluid flux for the porous medium with a random distribution of mesoscopic heterogeneities, and the characteristic frequency of the fluid flux is potentially related to that of the peak attenuation. The results are helpful for the prediction of the distribution of oil–gas patches based on the statistical properties of phase velocities and attenuation in layered porous media with random disorder.     

Characterization of phosphorus sorption on the sediments of Yangtze River Estuary and its adjacent areas

This paper studied the kinetics, isotherm and thermodynamics of phosphorus sorption onto the sediments of the Yangtze River estuary and its adjacent waters, as well as the sediments' compositions and physicochemical properties. The process could be described well by a two-compartment first order equation. The sorbed phosphorus mainly consisted of Ex-P and Fe-P, with Ex-P being the dominant. The equilibrium isotherms could be fitted well with a modified Langmuir equation. The calculations of the thermodynamic parameters indicated that the process was spontaneous and exothermic. The CEC and the fractions of clay, calcite and organic matter were correlated with the sorption parameters, while the surface proton charge of the sediments was significantly negatively correlated with them. Considering the kinetics and phosphorus forms changes during the process, the sorption in our study could be considered that the physical process plays an important role.     

1980s以来巢湖藻华物候时空变化遥感分析

蓝藻水华暴发时间变化一定程度上表征了藻华物候特征,研究藻华物候变化可为湖泊水环境健康问题治理和缓解水生生态系统环境退化提供科学依据。以往巢湖蓝藻水华遥感监测主要基于2000年以来的MODIS卫星数据,限制了对巢湖蓝藻水华暴发时空变化过程的理解。本文利用Landsat扩展时间序列,联合MODIS数据,基于浮游藻类指数和阈值分割技术提取巢湖蓝藻水华,在评估二者藻华提取结果一致性的基础上,获取并分析了巢湖1987-2020年蓝藻水华暴发物候的规律及影响因子。结果表明：(1) 2000年前,巢湖蓝藻水华暴发规模较小,2000年后面积显著上升,大面积蓝藻水华出现频繁,2011年达到最高峰(608.4 km²);(2)1987-2020年间,巢湖蓝藻水华暴发可以分为3个阶段：(1)1987-2004年,巢湖蓝藻水华年暴发开始时间显著提前,暴发持续时间显著增加;(2)2005-2010年,藻华年暴发开始时间显著延迟,但暴发持续时间变化不显著;(3)2011-2020年,巢湖藻华暴发开始、结束和持续时间呈现年际波动,年暴发开始时间、结束时间和持续时间有所提前,但不显著;(3)巢湖...     

云县地震台DSQ水管倾斜仪与VP垂直摆观测资料对比分析

云县地震台架设DSQ水管倾斜仪和VP垂直摆2套数字化地倾斜观测仪器,2套仪器的结构和原理差别较大,但观测的物理量一致。本文从数据完整率、内在精度、年变幅度、相关性、形态特征等角度出发,对数据进行对比分析,结果表明:2套仪器稳定性均较强,数据完整率较高,且地倾斜变化规律一致,均能反映监测区域大地倾斜变化特征,年变趋势受降雨干扰明显。     

The Large Earthquake Offshore West of Seoul, Korea, in the Southern Yellow Sea on June 22, 1518

On June 22,1518,a large earthquake,measuring M7~(1/2),occurred offshore west of Seoul,Korea in the southern Yellow Sea. This earthquake affected the whole Korean Peninsula,and caused damage to the coastal areas such as Seoul,where the seismic intensity was degree Ⅷ. Aftershock activity lasted for more than one month. The earthquake also affected the Eastern China region. This earthquake was possibly related to the activity of the western margin fault zone of the Korean Peninsula( the eastern margin fault zone of the southern Yellow Sea). The epicenter of the earthquake was located 36. 5°N and 125. 2°E.     

中国城市人口户籍迁移的估算及时空特征——新型城镇化的落户政策导向

基于户籍人口自然与机械增长的分解,估算2011-2017年全国地级及以上城市的户籍迁移人口,对比分析户籍迁移和人口流动的时空特征,评估国家新型城镇化战略中按规模等级引导城市落户政策的影响.结果表明,近年来,中国户籍迁移日趋活跃,人口迁移与流动的空间格局高度耦合;迁入热点区主要集中在沿海三大城市群,迁出地较为分散,以长江...     

人工智能技术在数值天气预报中的应用

当前,人工智能迎来第3次发展浪潮并在多个领域大数据分析中取得巨大成功,这为人工智能技术与数值天气预报结合提供了契机.已有大量研究尝试将人工智能技术用于数值天气预报的初值生成、预报和产品应用过程中,涉及观测资料预处理、资料同化、模式积分、后处理以及高性能计算,通过误差估计、参数估计和局部代理等手段使预报结果,得到改进且计...