自然灾害的影响及间接经济损失评估方法

灾害的损失受灾前经济发展水平、灾种差异、灾后恢复重建策略、灾害管理水平和灾害保险体系完善程度等复杂因素的影响,加上基础数据精度、获取难度和校验的不确定性,目前还没有有效的灾害间接经济损失评估方法。而已有间接经济损失评估方法存在不足：首先,评估对灾害间接经济损失的构成、时空维界定模糊;其次,评估模型假设太多往往偏离灾后实际经济状况;最后,模型对灾害扰动的动态影响机制考虑不足,往往忽视灾后经济系统的弹性和部门生产容量的动态变化特征。因此,在进行灾害损失评估时应注意灾害对经济影响的动态机理,结合不同灾害类型对经济影响的特点和当地的经济发展状况,合理设置相关参数,使模型更切合实际,从而更合理有效的评估灾害造成的间接损失。     

江苏省异常气候监测分析系统介绍

气象工作的根本任务是为国民经济建设和社会发展服务的,为各级领导的决策提供可靠的资料和依据。异常气候监测分析系统以适时全省气象信息为依据,运用气候统计方法得出气象要素极值,提高了气候分析的准确性和异常年表制作的质量。同时该系统又设计和建立了良好的计算机运行环境(数据存放环境、网络环境),为江苏省气候分析和气候业务提供了快捷、准确、可视性强的工作条件。     

山东地区地震烈度衰减关系

本文利用山东省及其邻区14个地震的37条等震线拟合山东地区地震烈度衰减公式.I=2.419+1.429M-1.286ln(R+9)σ=0.43认为此公式可以在今后山东省地震烈度区划和工程地震危险性分析中应用.同时还简单地讨论了不同震级、不同岩性地区地震烈度衰减的差异问题.     

湿地景观结构遥感动态变化分析

景观镶嵌结构是景观异质性的重要表现,同时又是各种生态过程在不同尺度上作用的结果。本文以北京市野鸭湖湿地自然保护区为区域背景,以RS、GIS和GPS为技术手段,监测获取了1996-2002年研究区域湿地土地利用／土地覆盖景观空间格局变化,探讨了土地利用/土地覆盖景观空间格局变化对湿地环境的影响。故此,对1998-2000年和2000-2002年湿地资源景观镶嵌结构的动态变化进行详细分析。结果表明:(1)利用遥感信息多尺度、多时相、多波段的特点,在GIS、GPS技术的支持下,能够快速及时准确地反映湿地景观类型的动态变化,为湿地资源监测、保护与利用提供科学依据。(2)借助景观生态学中的相关原理,通过景观空间格局计算模型解释不同类型湿地景观的分布、变化,剖析湿地景观演化机制,为湿地景观规划与评价服务。(3)分析认为,野鸭湖湿地景观格局发生了较大的变化,水域面积减少严重,耕地面积增长幅度不高,旅游用地和堤坝面积明显增加。(4)湖泊和沼泽草甸是控制和影响湿地景观格局的主体。野鸭湖整个湿地景观的破碎化程度降低,人类活动干扰湿地在不断减弱,湿地景观异质性在逐渐降低,斑块之间的连通性提高,生境斑块相互之间的隔离度大大减少,湿地景观趋向稳定。     

郯庐断裂带安徽段及“霍山窗”断层活动特征与地震关联性研究

利用郯庐断裂带安徽段及“霍山窗”区域的跨断层水准测量资料,运用断层形变累积率及年滑动速率比方法计算各测线近20 a的观测数据,研究区域内断层活动及能量积累的整体空间演化特征,梳理各测点所跨断裂带的断层形变特征及变化过程,从空间分布和时间演化的角度探讨断层活动特征与安徽及邻近地区中强地震的关联性。结果显示：1）郯庐断裂带安徽段断层形变累积率总体高于“霍山窗”区域,震前存在高值聚集、区域分界、高密度低值梯度带等特征,显示震前的应力积累背景;2）安徽地区断层活动明显受郯庐断裂带整体活动的影响,区域性差异和阶段性变化显著;3）断层形变的年滑动速率比异常对地震活动的判断具有一定的指示作用,主要表现为震前2个月~1 a的高值异常及多个测点的群体性异常等特征,随着震级的增大,异常分布范围和变化幅度均有所增大。     

荒漠草原区风力发电场建设前后的植被变化

调查了甘肃景泰荒漠草原区一处风电场基础设施建设和运行对植被的影响。结果表明:荒漠草原区百兆瓦级风力发电场建设造成直接植被生产力损失量为6.79 g·m^-2·a^-1,间接植被生产力损失量为91.43 g·m^-2·a^-1。随着扰动程度增加,物种丰富度降低,均匀度减小。在工程运行后,经历近10 a的自然恢复,核心扰动区虽然物种单一,但植被生产力是次级扰动区的两倍以上,为间接扰动区和未扰动区的50%和33%左右;而间接扰动区植被生产力仅为未扰动区的50%。总体上,风电工程扰动对区域植被的影响,不仅在于建设期对局地群落植被生产力的完全丧失,更重要的是在运行期间对周边大面积间接影响区群落植被生产力的大幅度降低,而且这种影响是长期和持续性的。     

2014年与2015年夏季琼东上升流的年际变化及其成因分析

本文通过2014年与2015年7月琼东海域的现场调查资料,结合卫星遥感数据,对ENSO影响下琼东上升流的变化进行研究分析,结果表明:2015年为强厄尔尼诺年,2015年7月低温高盐水总体上离表层较深,大约为20~30 m（24.5℃等温线和34等盐线）,但在近岸处（离岸20 km以内）却相对较浅,24.5℃等温线和34等盐线在整个断面抬升15~25 m,上升流的爬升现象更为明显;受西南季风影响,表层海水离岸运动,低温高盐水沿地形爬升进行补充,是典型的风生上升流。2014年为正常年份,2014年7月,整个断面低温高盐水更接近表层（近岸例外）,大约为10~20 m,同等深度低温高盐现象比2015年明显,但上升流爬升现象不明显,24.5℃等温线和34等盐线在整个断面抬升不到10 m;盛行风为东南风、向岸风,对上升流的形成起抑制作用,低温高盐水使整个断面的抬升,不符合风生上升流的特征规律,表明该年琼东上升流的形成可能与外海环流变化导致的温跃层抬升有关。     

Molecular characterization and expression analysis of Lily-type lectin (SmLTL) in turbot Scophthalmus maximus,and its response to Vibrio anguillarum

A full-length lily-type lectin(Sm LTL) was identified from turbot(Scophthalmus maximus) in this study. By searching database for protein identification and function prediction, Sm LTL were confirmed. The full-length c DNA of Sm LTL is composed of 569 bp and contains a 339 bp ORF that encodes 112 amino acid residues. The Sm LTL peptide is characterized by a specific β-prism architecture and contains three mannose binding sites in a three-fold internal repeat between amino acids 30–99; two of the repeats share the classical mannose binding domain(Qx Dx Nx Vx Y) while the third binding site was similar to other fish-specific binding motifs(Tx Tx Gx Rx V). The primary, secondary, and tertiary structures of Sm LTL were predicted and analyzed, indicating that the S m LTL protein was hydrophilic, contained 5.36% α-helices, 39.29% extended strands, 16.07% β-folds, and 39.29% random coils, and three β-folds. Quantitative realtime polymerase chain reaction(qPCR) analysis revealed that the Sm LTL mRNA was abundantly expressed in skin, gill, and intestine. Low levels of Sm LTL expression were observed in other tissues. The expression of Sm LTL in gill, skin and intestine increased at m RNA level after stimulation of V ibrio anguillarum, our results suggest that Sm LTL serve as the first line of defence against microbial infections and play a pivotal role in the innate mucosal immune system. The current study indicates that Sm LTL is a member of the lilytype lectin family and the information reported here will provide an important foundation for future research on the role of this protein.     

Estimation of genetic parameters for upper thermal tolerance and growth-related traits in turbot Scophthalmus maximus using the Bayesian method based on Gibbs sampling

In order to carry out the genetic improvement of turbot upper thermal tolerance, it is necessary to estimate the genetic parameters of UTT(upper thermal tolerance) and growth-related traits. The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for BW(body weight) and UTT in a two-generational turbot(Scophthalmus maximus L.) pedigree derived from four imported turbot stocks(England, France, Denmark and Norway). A total of 42 families including 20 families from G1 generation and 22 families from G2 generation were used to test upper thermal tolerance(40–50 animals per family) in this study and the body weight of individuals were measured. The heritability of BW and UTT and the correlation between these two traits were estimated based on an individual animal model using Bayesian method based on two types of animal models with and without maternal effects.These results showed that the heritabilities for BW and UTT and phenotypic and genetic correlations between the two traits estimated from model without maternal effects were 0.239±0.141, 0.111±0.080, 0.075±0.026 and–0.019±0.011, respectively. The corresponding values from model with maternal effects were 0.203±0.115,0.055±0.026, 0.047±0.034 and –0.024±0.028, respectively. The maternal effects of BW and UTT were 0.050±0.017 and 0.013±0.004, respectively. The maternal effects had a certain influence on the genetic evaluation of the two traits. The findings of this paper provided the necessary background to determine the best selection strategy to be adopted in the genetic improvement program.     

赤道东经90°海岭活塞柱状心钙同位素曲线特征及其古环境意义

A δ~(44) Ca curve from shells of the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides sacculifer in calcareous biogenic oozes has been extracted from the Nintyeast Ridge in the Indian Ocean since 300 ka. By combining terrigenous inputs(e.g., grain size, magnetic susceptibility, and turbidite frequency) with the oceanic productivity(e.g., biogenic content and Neogloboquadrina dutertrei content), it is found that the curve's variations are closely related to the historical evolution of the oceanic calcium cycle. The δ~(44)Ca value is in lower tendency and has small oscillation during Marine Isotope Stage(MIS) 6, when the supply of terrigenous detrital is highest. In contrast, during MIS 3,5 and 7, the δ~(44) Ca values are in higher tendency, and their fluctuations are consistent with the variations of the productivity proxies. These results suggest that the calcium isotopes are mainly influenced by the input of the Himalayan erosion products to the northern Indian Ocean. In addition, the developmental stages of calcareous planktons may have a secondary impact on the fluctuations of the calcium isotope ratio of sea water.