Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean

We present a preliminary estimation of tsunami hazard associated with the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean. Makran is one of the two main tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean, which has produced some tsunamis in the past. Northwestern Indian Ocean remains one of the least studied regions in the world in terms of tsunami hazard assessment. Hence, a scenario-based method is employed to provide an estimation of tsunami hazard in this region for the first time. The numerical modeling of tsunami is verified using historical observations of the 1945 Makran tsunami. Then, a number of tsunamis each resulting from a 1945-type earthquake (M _w 8.1) and spaced evenly along the MSZ are simulated. The results indicate that by moving a 1945-type earthquake along the MSZ, the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan will experience the largest waves with heights of between 5 and 7 m, depending on the location of the source. The tsunami will reach a height of about 5 m and 2 m in northern coast of Oman and eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates, respectively.     

On the Use of Crushed Recycled Glass Instead of Silica Sand in Dual‐Media Filters

Crushed recycled glass was evaluated as an alternative to silica sand in dual‐media filters. Pilot scale inline filtration experiments were carried out using raw waters from three different water sources with turbidities between 6.0 and 14.0 NTU. Two physically identical filter columns were operated in parallel in the experiments. One filter consisted of 62.5 cm silica sand and 41.5 cm anthracite coal, whereas the other filter contained 62.5 cm crushed recycled glass plus 41.5 cm anthracite coal. The total bed depth was 104 cm for both filters. The properties of the media were as follows: Glass effective size = 0.77 mm, uniformity coefficient = 1.41. Sand effective size = 0.79 mm, uniformity coefficient = 1.33. Coal effective size = 1.45 mm, uniformity coefficient = 1.39. Experiments were repeated five times as follows: (i) Without the use of a coagulant, (ii–iii) with 5 and 10 mg/L of alum, and (iv–v) with 5 and 10 mg/L of ferric chloride. The filtration rate used was 11.5 m/h. Turbidity, particle counts, and head losses were measured and compared as functions of time. The following were observed: (i) Effluent turbidities and particle counts of the two filters were very close, i.e., essentially the same effluent quality was obtained when crushed glass was used instead of silica sand. (ii) In the majority of the tests, the filter with crushed glass generated both a smaller clean‐bed head loss and smaller clogging head losses than those of the filter containing sand. It is concluded that crushed glass may be a good alternative to silica sand in dual‐media filtration.     

Comparison of near-fault and far-fault ground motion effects on geometrically nonlinear earthquake behavior of suspension bridges

This paper presents a comparison of near-fault and far-fault ground motion effects on geometrically nonlinear earthquake behavior of suspension bridges. Bo?azi?i (The First Bosporus) and Fatih Sultan Mehmet (Second Bosporus) suspension bridges built in Istanbul, Turkey, are selected as numerical examples. Both bridges have almost the same span. While Bo?azi?i Suspension Bridge has inclined hangers, Fatih Sultan Mehmet Suspension Bridge has vertical hangers. Geometric nonlinearity including P-delta effects from self-weight of the bridges is taken into account in the determination of the dynamic behavior of the suspension bridges for near-fault and far-fault ground motions. Near-fault and far-fault strong ground motion records, which have approximately identical peak ground accelerations, of 1999 Chi-Chi, 1999 Kocaeli, and 1979 Imperial Valley earthquakes are selected for the analyses. Displacements and internal forces of the bridges are determined using the finite element method including geometric nonlinearity. The displacements and internal forces obtained from the dynamic analyses of suspension bridges subjected to each fault effect are compared with each other. It is clearly seen that near-fault ground motions are more effective than far-fault ground motion on the displacements and internal forces such as bending moment, shear force and axial forces of the suspension bridges.     

Effects of soil heterogeneity on susceptibility of shallow landslides

Uncertainties in parameters of landslide susceptibility models often hinder them from providing accurate spatial and temporal predictions of landslide occurrences. Substantial contribution to the uncertainties in landslide assessment originates from spatially variable geotechnical and hydrological parameters. These input parameters may often vary significantly through space, even within the same geological deposit, and there is a need to quantify the effects of the uncertainties in these parameters. This study addresses this issue with a new three-dimensional probabilistic landslide susceptibility model. The spatial variability of the model parameters is modeled with the random field approach and coupled with the Monte Carlo method to propagate uncertainties from the model parameters to landslide predictions (i.e., factor of safety). The resulting uncertainties in landslide predictions allow the effects of spatial variability in the input parameters to be quantified. The performance of the proposed model in capturing the effect of spatial variability and predicting landslide occurrence has been compared with a conventional physical-based landslide susceptibility model that does not account for three-dimensional effects on slope stability. The results indicate that the proposed model has better performance in landslide prediction with higher accuracy and precision than the conventional model. The novelty of this study is illustrating the effects of the soil heterogeneity on the susceptibility of shallow landslides, which was made possible by the development of a three-dimensional slope stability model that was coupled with random field model and the Monte Carlo method.

     

Basin progress: active deformation analysis by tectonostratigraphic elements and geophysical methods on North Anatolian Fault System (Eastern Marmara Region,Turkey)

Natural Hazards - The Northern Branch of the North Anatolian Fault System controls and deforms the Izmit Basin and the Sapanca Lake Basin in the study area. Unlike the Sapanca Lake Basin, the...     

Relation of tectonic structure to groundwater flow in the Beypazari region, NW Anatolia, Turkey

The Beypazari region in NW Anatolia (Turkey) is characterized by high water demand and stress on available water resources. Tectonic structures control the groundwater flow, hydraulic head and well yield in the study area, which is located in the central part of the Beypazari Neogen basin. The impact of major tectonic structures on groundwater flow in the Cakiloba-Karadoruk aquifer is described. This aquifer is of sedimentary composition and underwent tectonic deformation, post-Miocene, forming northeast-striking asymmetric synclines, anticlines, monoclines, high-angle reverse faults and N–S striking tensional faults. Some of these structures affect groundwater flow by separating the aquifer system into sub-compartments, each having unique recharge, boundary and flow conditions. The groundwater system is compartmentalized into three sub-systems under the impacts of the Zaviye and Kanliceviz faults: (1) Arisekisi, (2) Elmabeli and (3) Southern sub-systems. The southern part of the Arisekisi sub-system and the Southern sub-system are characterized by a syncline and the aquifer is confined in the central part of the syncline. The Elmabeli sub-system has unconfined conditions. Consequently, the effects of tectonic structures are shown to be important for selecting well locations, evaluating groundwater use, groundwater management, and contaminant control in the study area, and also in other tectonic regions.     

Basin-wide hydrological system assessment under climate change scenarios through conceptual modelling

ABSTRACT

Mediterranean region is identified as a primary hot-spot for climate change due to the expected temperature and rainfall changes. Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology in these regions is an important task to develop long-term water management strategies. The aim of this study was to quantify the potential impacts of the climate changes on local hydrological quantities at the Goksu Watershed at the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey as a case study. A set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios were used as drivers for the conceptual hydrological model J2000 to investigate how the hydrological system and the underlying processes would respond to projected future climate conditions. The model was implemented to simulate daily hydrological quantities including runoff generation, Actual Evapotranspiration (AET) and soil-water balance for present (2005–2015) and future (up to 2100). The results indicated an increase of both precipitation and runoff throughout the region from January to March. The region showed a strong seasonally dependent runoff regime with higher flows during winter and spring and lower flows in summer and fall. The study provides a comparative methodology to include meteorological-hydrological modelling integration that can be feasible to assess the climate change impacts in mountainous regions.     

Modeling and simulating earthquake accelerograms using strong-motion data from the Istanbul, Turkey, region

In order to simulate earthquake ground motions for the Instanbul (Turkey) region, acceleration time series from western Turkey are modeled by transforming the series into a stationary one which can be described by an autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) process. The ARMA and other parameters used in the stationary transformation are related to physical parameters (e.g. magnitude, distance to epicenter, depth to hypocenter and duration) via a regression analysis. To create simulations for a given set of physical parameters, the modelling procedure is reversed.