Comparative analysis of regression and artificial neural network models for wind speed prediction

In this study, wind speed was modeled by linear regression (LR), nonlinear regression (NLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) methods. A three-layer feedforward artificial neural network structure was constructed and a backpropagation algorithm was used for the training of ANNs. To get a successful simulation, firstly, the correlation coefficients between all of the meteorological variables (wind speed, ambient temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity and rainfall) were calculated taking two variables in turn for each calculation. All independent variables were added to the simple regression model. Then, the method of stepwise multiple regression was applied for the selection of the “best” regression equation (model). Thus, the best independent variables were selected for the LR and NLR models and also used in the input layer of the ANN. The results obtained by all methods were compared to each other. Finally, the ANN method was found to provide better performance than the LR and NLR methods.     

Trace elements in high-S subbituminous coals from the teruel Mining District, northeast Spain

The elemental composition of high temperature ash (750°C) and forms of S were studied in 25 coal seams from the Escucha Formation (Middle Albian) in the Teruel Mining District, northeast Spain. The principal analytical method was ICP-MS, but ICP-ES was also used in the determination of some trace elements. The analytical data show wide ranges of trace element cotnents among the coal seams studied, even in the vertical profile of a single coal seam. These wide ranges of the trace element concentrations are attributed to both syngenetic and epigenetic processes.When a comparison was made between the average trace element contents of the Teruel Mining District coals, and those of the average content in worldwide coals, the Teruel coals show slightly higher concentrations of Be and U, and lower concentrations of Ba, Cd, Mn, Pb, Sr and Zr. Further, three main groups of trace elements were differentiated on the basis of the inorganic/organic association: (1) trace elements with inorganic affinity; Ba, Ce, Co, Cr, La, Mn, Ni, Rb and Zr. Between these, Ba, Ce, Cr and Rb show a well defined correlation with the clay mineral content, and Co and Ni with pyritic-S content; (2) trace elements with an intermediate (mixed) affinity; As, Cd, Cu, Dy, Er, Eu, Gd, Ge, Ho, Lu, Mo, Nd, Pb, Pr, Sb, Sm, Sr, Tb, Th, Tm, U, Yb and Zn. In this group, As, Cd, Cu, Ge, Mo, Th, U and Zn show a weak trend associated with the mineral matter and Sr with the organic matter; and (3) Be shows an organic affinity. The high mineral matter content (21.3% HTA) of the Teruel coals may account for the great number of elements with inorganic affinity. This classification represents a general trend, but the results show that the affinities of some trace elements (e.g. As, Sb and Zn) may vary from one coal seam to another in the Teruel Mining District.     

A technique for improving MODIS standard snow products for snow cover monitoring over Eastern Turkey

Daily snow cover maps at 500 m resolution are available from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites. However, information of the ground can only be obtained during clear sky conditions. In addition, the spectral similarity between clouds and snow in the visible part of the spectrum causes some ambiguities in separation of them. The dynamic behavior of clouds with their tendency to move faster often enables discrimination between cloud and snow, since snow remains relatively stationary. In this study, a daily merging methodology to combine Terra and Aqua based snow maps are proposed, and the benefits of this combination are evaluated. The methodology was tested for Eastern Turkey covering the period from December 2002 to March 2003. Merged maps derived from the standard daily snow maps from Terra (MOD10A1) and Aqua (MYD10A1) reduce the cloud cover present in any one image alone, provide better representation of the surface snow cover, and indicate better agreement with ground snow measurements than when either one is used alone. For “on the ground data date” analyses yielded 31% match ratios for MOD10A1 and MYD10A1, whereas combined images enabled 38%. One- to 2-day temporal window shifting enabled further 7% and 5% improvements in match ratios, respectively. The maximum improvement of 25% was achieved in January of 2003. The proposed methodology provides an easy and effective way to improve snow cover maps with little effort and provides fewer cloud-contaminated images for snow monitoring, for hydrology, and water resource management.     

Lg Wave Attenuation in the Isparta Angle and Anatolian Plateau (Turkey)

We estimate Lg wave attenuation using local and regional seismic phases in the Isparta Angle and the Anatolian Plateau (Turkey). The Isparta Angle (IA) is a tectonically active zone forming the boundary between the African Plate and the Anatolian Plateau, and is currently undergoing N–S extensional deformation. The Anatolian Plateau contains many intra-continental faults including the North Anatolian Fault Zone and the East Anatolian Fault Zone as well as the Menderes Massif. A large waveform data set was compiled from a variety of local and regional seismic networks including 121 digital seismic stations (broad-band and short period) between 1999 and 2008 spanning the IA, the Anatolian Plateau and Azerbaijan. The data set was used to determine the nature of Lg wave propagation and characterize the nature of seismic attenuation within the crust of these regions. Lg waveforms were used to calculate the frequency-dependent Lg-Q _o and Lg- $ \eta $ . A wide range of Lg-Q _o values was obtained between ~52 ± 6 and 524 ± 227. Low Lg-Q _o values (~90–155) are calculated towards the north of IA, Iskenderun Gulf and its vicinity, Bingöl-Karl?ova, Izmit and its vicinity. Lg-Q _o values are especially low (<90) along the Menderes Massif and the Aksehir-Simav Fault Zones. This may be due to intrinsic attenuation of Lg associated with the partially molten crust and young volcanism. The high Lg-Q _o values (~350) are probably caused by the crust not being subject to large amounts of extensional deformation like the Antalya Gulf and apparently being thick enough to support Lg propagation. Relatively higher values along the border of this subduction zone and plate boundary might be related to the Taurus Mountain belts and Bitlis-Zagros Suture Zone. The lateral frequency dependency Lg- $ \eta $ is also consistent with high tectonic activity in this region.     

Biodegradability Assessment and Treatability of High Strength Complex Industrial Park Wastewater

Industrial park wastewater (IPWW) includes complex non‐biodegradable organic compounds. A wastewater treatability study using biodegradability assessment approach was carried out for an industrial park housing mainly textile and machinery sectors. Biodegradable and inert chemical oxygen demand (COD) fractions with soluble and particulate counterparts were experimentally estimated by implementing respirometric methods. Aerobic batch test methods and oxygen uptake rate profiles were used to map kinetic parameters and COD fractions. Denitrification potential was also determined by application of anoxic batch tests. Relevant kinetic constants, stoichiometric, and design parameters were determined for biological processes. Tests were carried out for raw and physico‐chemically pre‐treated IPWW. Hence, it was aimed to assess the effects and necessity of pre‐treatment on biological processes. Biological mineralization, nitrification, and denitrification processes were also designed and tested using a bench scale continuous treatment model for pre‐treated IPWW. The sum of initial inert soluble COD fraction and production of soluble microbial products decreased about 25% for the case of pre‐treated IPWW as compared to raw IPWW. Eighty‐three percent total COD and 89% total Kjeldahl nitrogen removal efficiencies were attained for the modeling experiments of pre‐treated IPWW. Results showed the significance of pre‐treatment if complex strength industrial wastewaters are to be biologically treated.     

Impact of mass movements in the Kocaeli Province,Turkey

Recent mass movements in the Kocaeli Province, Turkey in 2010 caused damage to people, property and infrastructure, especially in Izmit and its vicinity. The causes and impact of these mass movements are outlined, so as to increase awareness of their dangerous aspects. Some of these mass movement events took place in urban areas, bringing attention to the need for better and more effective land use practices. The impact of these movements indicates the benefit there would be from geology and engineering geology in the planning of any property development and land use.     

A study of residuals for strong ground motions in Adapazari basin,NW Turkey,by ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs)

The city of Adapazarı — located in the Marmara Region of northwest Turkey — is situated on a deep sedimentary basin and was the city most heavily damaged by the strong ground motion of the 17 August 1999 Kocaeli earthquake (moment magnitude M_w = 7.4). This study determines site amplifications of the attenuation relationships for shallow earthquakes in the Adapazarı basin by using the previous ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and the traditional spectral ratio method. The site amplifications are determined empirically by averaging the residuals between the observed and predicted peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) values for various periods. Residuals are significantly correlated with the known characteristics of geological units. A new attenuation model has also been developed for 5% damped spectral acceleration to determine the dependence of strong ground motions on frequency.     

Coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise: a spatial–temporal assessment framework

The scientific community is confident that warming of the Earth’s climate is unequivocal. Sea-level rise, which poses potential threats to coastal areas, is one of the most recognised possible impacts of this climate change. The nonlinearities, complexities, and spatial and temporal lags are common characteristics of coastal processes driven by human and natural interaction. With the acknowledgement of the complexity and dynamic nature of coastal systems, this paper introduces a spatial–temporal assessment framework, for addressing both the temporal and spatial variations, when assessing the vulnerability of natural and human systems in coastal areas. The framework is based upon a combination of system dynamics (SD) modelling and geographical information systems by taking into account spatial (x, y, z) and temporal (t) dimensions. The strategy of the adopted approach is to use the loose coupling approach by which a spatial model component is incorporated into a SD model component through a data converter.     

Astrometric Solution of the Multiple System Xy Leo

An astrometric solution, together with time of minimum analysis, has been made for the multiple system XY Leonis (HIP 49136) to identify the properties of the remote companion to the eclipsing pair (AB). From this solution, we derive the inclination of the wide orbit (AB-cd) as 94.4^∘± 0.2^∘, angle of nodes as 247.3^∘± 0.2^∘, and the mass of the wide component (the dwarf binary cd) as 0.98 ± 0.2 M_⊙. This study confirms that the light travel time effect can explain the sinusoidal O−C variation of the eclipsing system.