山东夏季极端热事件变化特征分析

利用山东88个气象站1961—2019年夏季6—8月逐日最高、最低气温观测数据,分析了山东各地极端热昼、极端热夜、极端高温日三个极端热事件的时空演变规律和突变特征。结果表明：1）山东夜间出现极端热事件及白天和夜间同时出现极端热事件的天数增多、强度增强、占比增加。历年极端热昼出现天数和占比均呈不同程度的减少趋势,平均强度呈减小趋势,其中占比减少最明显;极端热夜、极端高温日出现天数和占比均呈不同程度的增加趋势,平均强度呈增强趋势。2）山东内陆和沿海地区各极端热事件变化差异明显。内陆地区极端热昼各指标减少、减小趋势更显著,大部分地区变化趋势通过了0.05的显著性水平检验,半岛南部和东部部分区域则有增加、增强趋势;中西部地区极端热夜各指标增加、增强趋势更显著,大部分地区变化趋势通过了0.05的显著性水平检验;中东部区域尤其是半岛地区极端高温日各指标增加、增强趋势更显著,大部分地区变化趋势通过了0.05的显著性水平检验。3）各极端热事件不同指标的突变情况迥异。极端热昼历年出现天数没有发生突变,平均强度在1970年前后发生突变,突变发生后,平均强度明显减小;极端热夜出现天数和平均强度均在1994年前后发生突变,突变发生后,出现天数明显增加、平均强度明显增强;极端高温日出现天数和强度分别在1994年、1973年前后发生突变,突变发生后,出现天数明显增加。     

浙江中部芙蓉山花岗斑岩及包体岩石地球化学研究

花岗岩的源区、温压条件及与其他岩石的共生组合的研究可以限定其形成构造背景,了解其形成的深部动力学过程.本文对浙江中部中生代芙蓉山花岗斑岩及其暗色包体开展了全岩主微量元素、锆石U-Pb年代学和Hf同位素、Ti温度计和全岩Sr—Nd同位素研究,探讨芙蓉山花岗斑岩的成因类型、源区特征及其与镁铁质包体之间的关系,并进一步限定其...     

Evidence of NW extension of the North Anatolian Fault Zone in the Marmara Sea: a new interpretation of the Marmara Sea (İzmit) earthquake on 17 August 1999

Active faults aligning in NW–SE direction and forming flower structures of strike-slip faults were observed in shallow seismic data from the shelf offshore of Avc?lar in the northern Marmara Sea. By following the parallel drainage pattern and scarps, these faults were traced as NW–SE-directed lineaments in the morphology of the northern onshore sector of the Marmara Sea (eastern Thrace Peninsula). Right-lateral displacements in two watersheds of drainage and on the coast of the Marmara Sea and Black Sea are associated with these lineaments. This right-lateral displacement along the course of these faults suggests a new, active strike-slip fault zone located at the NW extension of the northern boundary fault of the Ç?narc?k Basin in the Marmara Sea. This new fault zone is interpreted as the NW extension of the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), extending from the Ç?narc?k Basin of the Marmara Sea to the Black Sea coast of the Thrace Peninsula, and passing through B üy ük çekmece and K ü ç ük çekmece lagoons. These data suggest that the rupture of the 17 August 1999 earthquake in the NAFZ may have extended through Avc?lar. Indeed, Avc?lar and ?zmit, both located on the Marmara Sea coast along the rupture route, were strongly struck by the earthquake whereas the settlements between Avc?lar and ?zmit were much less affected. Therefore, this interpretation can explain the extraordinary damage in Avc?lar, based on the newly discovered rupture of the NAFZ in the Marmara Sea. However, this suggestion needs to be confirmed by further seismological studies.     

Neural network and wavelet conjunction model for modelling monthly level fluctuations in Turkey

This paper proposes the application of a conjunction model (neuro‐wavelet) for forecasting monthly lake levels. The neuro‐wavelet (NW) conjunction model is improved combining two methods, discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van, which is the biggest lake in Turkey, and Lake Egirdir. The accuracy of the NW model is investigated for 1‐ and 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting. The root mean square errors, mean absolute relative errors and determination coefficient statistics are used for evaluating the accuracy of NW models. The results of the proposed models are compared with those of the neural networks. In the 1‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 87–34% and 86–31% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. In the 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 34–48% and 30‐46% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. The comparison results indicate that the suggested model could significantly increase the short‐ and long‐term forecast accuracy. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Anomalous X-ray pulsars: persistent states with fallback disks

The anomalous X-ray pulsar 4U 0142+61 was recently detected in the mid infrared bands with the SPITZER Observatory (Wang, Chakrabarty and Kaplan: Nature 440, 772 (2006)). This observation is the first instance for a disk around an AXP. From a reanalysis of optical and infrared data, we show that the observations indicate that the disk is likely to be an active disk rather than a passive dust disk beyond the light cylinder, as proposed in the discovering paper. Furthermore, we show that the irradiated accretion disk model can also account for all the optical and infrared observations of the anomalous X-ray pulsars in the persistent state.     

The H N method for Milne problem with polarization

The H _N method, employed for studies in neutron transport theory, is used to establish numerical results basic to the vector equation describing the transfer of polarized light in a Rayleigh scattering atmosphere with true absorption. The method has been applied to the classical Milne problem. The exit distribution is defined as a series in powers of the zenith observation angle. The numerical results are computed and compared with exact values obtained using the exit distribution in terms of the H-matrix. The numerical results are in good agreement with previously published findings.     

Recent photoelectric photometry of the newly discovered eclipsing system BD + 13o4708

Two-colour photoelectric photometry of the eclipsing binary BD + 13^o4708 was carried out. Several features such as asymmetry in the branches, light difference between the maxima, an eccentric orbit, a dip around phase 0.2 are distinctive. The new light elements of the system were computed using also the previous times of primary minima given by Walker (1988).     

Two-colour photoelectric photometry of UV piscium and fourier analysis of its out-of-eclipse light variations

Two-colour photoelectric light curves of the RS CVn-type eclipsing system UV Psc, obtained in 1985 and 1986, are presented. Present work also deals with the Fourier analysis of the outside-eclipse light variations for five years' light curves (1981, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1986). Based on this analysis, the amplitude variations of the so-called wave-like distortion and its migration period have been investigated. The amplitude of the wave-like distortion seems to vary with a very rough period of 4–5 years, and the migration period of the wave minimum appears to be one of the three different (2.3, 0.7, 0.4 years) but most possible values among some others.