Long-term inter-annual variability of a cyclonic gyre in the western Irish Sea

The western Irish Sea gyre (WISG) is a cyclonic baroclinic flow around a dome of stagnant water which develops each year during the heating season in the western Irish Sea. Research was carried out to determine long-term changes in the strength of stratification within WISG and associated changes in the gyre structure, circulation patterns and retentive properties. Model simulations were carried out for the 58-year period 1951-2008. The characteristics of the gyre were quantified by means of potential energy anomaly (PEA), measuring the strength of stratification, and total kinetic energy (KE), reflecting the strength of cyclonic circulation. Additionally, long-term changes in flushing rates within the gyre were assessed.Results show that stratification in the western Irish Sea consistently begins to develop in March, increases linearly from April till June, peaks at the beginning of July and remains at close to maximum level throughout the month of July, before a start of a sharp decline at the beginning of August. The strength of stratification is significantly correlated with averaged summer air temperatures and summer wind speeds. Trend analysis of PEA shows an increase in the stratification strength over the period considered; the increase of PEA peak value is accompanied by a shortening of the gyre duration and a delay in the timing of the peak value. There is also an increasing trend in the KE value, showing that the thermal stratification plays a crucial role in the hydrography of the region. Flushing analysis shows that the stronger the stratification the lower the residence time and thus the faster the removal of the material from the western Irish Sea. Residence time within WISG shortens on average by 8 days over the 58-year period.     

Paleo-stratigraphic permeability anisotropy controls supergene mimetic martite goethite deposits

The Hamersley Basin in Western Australia is one of the world's largest iron ore-producing regions, hosting two types of ore in banded iron formations: the high-grade martite-microplaty haematite and the supergene martite-goethite ores. With the high-grade ores almost entirely mined in the last decade, the supergene ores have more recently become the dominant resource of interest. Consequently, understanding the genesis of these martite-goethite deposits is a critical step for exploration. Yet, although various models exist, there is still no consensus on how these mineral resources formed, complicating the prediction of resource volume and location. Here, we show that the paleo-stratigraphic permeability anisotropy (with higher permeability along strata than across) controls the supergene mimetic enrichment transport process and, subsequently, the mineralisation distribution. We introduce a flow model that implicitly represents strata with a potential function that orients the permeability tensor accurately. The numerical solver uses automatic mesh adaptivity to deliver robust solutions. By accurately reproducing the mineralisation patterns in specific deposits, we identify and quantify the paleo-water table level and permeability anisotropy ratio as the two main controlling parameters for the mineralisation distribution. These insights provide new timing constraints for the mineralisation and the physical process of iron enrichment, suggesting much more potential mineralisation volume in the paleo-reconstructed zones than previously anticipated. These flow models allow us to draw geological conclusions with few a priori assumptions required for the genetic model in which the transport component is dominant. The predictive power of this methodology will allow targeted drilling to narrow down the prospective areas and lower exploration costs. Furthermore, the methodology's generality applies to other commodities in sedimentary basins involving supergene processes and will improve our understanding of various genetic models.     

Classification and regression tree theory application for assessment of building damage caused by surface deformation

A framework of applying the classification and regression tree theory (CART) for assessing the concrete building damage, caused by surface deformation, is proposed. The prognosis methods used for approximated building hazard estimation caused by continuous deformation are unsatisfactory. Variable local soil condition, changing intensity of the continuous deformation and variable resistance of the concrete buildings require the prognosis method adapted to the local condition. Terrains intensely induced by surface deformation are build-up with hundreds of building, so the method of their hazard estimation needs to be approximated and relatively fast. Therefore, promising might be addressing problems of reliable building damage risk assessment by application of classification and regression tree. The presented method based on the classification and regression tree theory enables to establish the most significant risk factors causing the building damage. Chosen risk factors underlie foundation for the concrete building damage prognosis method, which was caused by the surface continuous deformation. The established method enabled to assess the severity of building damage and was adapted to the local condition. High accuracy of shown approach is validated based on the independent data set of the buildings from the similar region. The research presented introduces the CART to determination of the risk of building damage with the emphasis on the grade of the building damage. Since presented method bases on the observations of the damages from the previous subsidence, the method might be applied to any local condition, where the previous subsidence is known.     

Provenance implications of Th–U–Pb electron microprobe ages from detrital monazite in the Carboniferous Upper Silesia Coal Basin, Poland

This paper reports the results of CHIME (chemical Th–U–Pb isochron method) dating of detrital monazites from Carboniferous sandstones in the Upper Silesia Coal Basin (USCB). A total of 4739 spots on 863 monazite grains were analyzed from samples of sandstone derived from six stratigraphic units in the sedimentary sequence. Age distributions were identified in detrital monazites from the USCB sequence and correlated with specific dated domains in potential source areas. Most monazites in all samples yielded ca. 300–320 Ma (Variscan) ages; however, eo-Variscan, Caledonian and Cadomian ages were also obtained. The predominant ages are comparable to reported ages of certain tectonostratigraphic domains in the polyorogenic Bohemian Massif (BM), which suggests that various crystalline lithologies in the BM were the dominant sources of USCB sediments.