An Instrument for the Determination of a Hydropneumograph in a Bubbling Spring

In order to enable greater accuracy in the determination of the mass discharge of gas and water-gas ratios (WGR) in groundwater from springs, we have developed a field-deployable instrument using commercially available components to independently measure the gas and water mass flow rates in springs with bubbling mixed-phase flow. Collecting and measuring the free gas phase will allow for further compositional analysis that may be useful in improving gas-derived parameters such as recharge temperature and age, as well as quantification of methanogenesis and flux of crustal/mantle gasses. By installing a phase separator at the spring discharge, a thermal mass flow sensor is utilized to measure the gas flow rate (ebullition + flux) generated from a spring. The water flow rate is determined by a standard weir. Field performance of the device was tested on a spring discharging from the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer near the town of Connerville in south-central Oklahoma, USA.     

加利福尼亚未来的地震

对加利福尼亚,将概率原则应用于地震之后对一个未来地震的短期预报。这一预测将怎样被公众使用,我们将试目以待。     

The Impact of the Anomalous Weather of 1995 on the U.K. Economy

This study assesses selected impacts on tertiary activities of the anomalously hot summer of 1995 and warm period from November 1994 through October 1995 in the U.K. Over this period, the mean Central England temperature was 1.6 °C above the 1961–1990 normal, representing the highest mean 12-month temperature since the start of the Central England temperature record in 1659. The study is distinguished by its breadth of coverage, for it includes tertiary sectors and activities. Although impacts in tertiary activities are often not included in assessments of the potential impacts of climatic change, many of these activities are very important to the U.K. economy, and therefore even a small perturbation in output due to a weather extreme can have significant implications for the economy as a whole. The activities and sectors studied include energy consumption, retailing and manufacturing, construction and buildings, tourism, health, human behaviour, and fires. Both negative and positive impacts were incurred within most sectors. Net positive impacts (to the general public) were found convincingly for energy consumption and health, and clear negative impacts for buildings insurance and fires. Sectors which show clear differences in their response to winter and summer warm anomalies are energy consumption, tourism and health (greater sensitivity to winter anomalies) and buildings insurance and fires (greater sensitivity to summer anomalies). Changes in sensitivity to climate extremes may have occurred over time, and a comparison of impacts of the 1995 anomalous weather with the unusually warm dry period of 1975–1976 is approached for several series.     

Observation of Tidal Tilt On Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

Summary. We have analysed the east-west tilt components, O₁, K₁, N₂, M₂ and S₂ from a continuously recording tiltmeter located in Uwekahuna Vault on Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii, for the period 1971—79. Detailed analysis of the M₂ component gives values of 30.9 ± 2.0 (95 per cent) nrad and 116.0 ± 2.0° for the amplitude and phase, respectively, compared to values of 48.5 nrad and 139.4° for the equilibrium tide. the total theoretical tide, found by summing the equilibrium and load tides, amounts to 37.2 nrad at a phase of 121.7°. the 20 per cent discrepancy with that observed may be due to an inaccurate cotical chart, cavity effects in the vault, strain—tilt coupling or an inappropriate solid earth model. In the vicinity of Hawaii (≤ 3°) two independent cotidal charts give almost identical results for the near field ocean load. At greater distances, we use the Schwiderski (1978) cotidal chart. We estimate that local cavity and strain—tilt coupling effects are less than 12 per cent owing to the agreement between geodetically determined and instrumental tilt but we can not rule out regional effects. Assuming these are small and the cotical charts correct, we find that the M₂ results are brought into satisfactory agreement if, instead of using an average oceanic earth model in the (< 75 km) vicinity of Hawaii, we use an earth model with nearly one-half the oceanic rigidity. Such a low upper mantle and crustal rigidity is consistent with Kilauea's position above the thermal upwelling associated with the Hawaiian hotspot.     

Projected 21st-century changes to Arctic marine access

Climate models project continued Arctic sea ice reductions with nearly ice-free summer conditions by the mid-21st century. However, how such reductions will realistically enable marine access is not well understood, especially considering a range of climatic scenarios and ship types. We present 21st century projections of technical shipping accessibility for circumpolar and national scales, the international high seas, and three potential navigation routes. Projections of marine access are based on monthly and daily CCSM4 sea ice concentration and thickness simulations for 2011–2030, 2046–2065, and 2080–2099 under 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m² radiative forcing scenarios. Results suggest substantial areas of the Arctic will become newly accessible to Polar Class 3, Polar Class 6, and open-water vessels, rising from ~54 %, 36 %, and 23 %, respectively of the circumpolar International Maritime Organization Guidelines Boundary area in the late 20th century to ~95 %, 78 %, and 49 %, respectively by the late 21st century. Of the five Arctic Ocean coastal states, Russia experiences the greatest percentage access increases to its exclusive economic zone, followed by Greenland/Denmark, Norway, Canada and the U.S. Along the Northern Sea Route, July-October navigation season length averages ~120, 113, and 103 days for PC3, PC6, and OW vessels, respectively by late-century, with shorter seasons but substantial increases along the Northwest Passage and Trans-Polar Route. While Arctic navigation depends on other factors besides sea ice including economics, infrastructure, bathymetry, and weather, these projections are useful for strategic planning by governments, regulatory agencies, and the global maritime industry to assess spatial and temporal ranges of potential Arctic marine operations in the coming decades.