A new approach for evaluating climate change communication

Many scholars study when climate change communication increases citizen engagement. Yet, past work has largely used public opinion-based measures of engagement to evaluate alternative frames. In this paper, we argue for a new approach to evaluation, which is premised on research on the policy-making process showing that space on the political agenda and, ultimately, policy change are more likely to arise in response to changes in both public opinion and collective political action. Thus, we argue that alternative frames should be evaluated based on their consequences for both. This is especially critical given that frames can have divergent effects on attitudes and behavior. Using a combination of field and survey experiments, we apply our approach to evaluate two frames related to climate change risks. We find that they heighten people’s concern about climate change yet decrease their rate of political action to express that concern. Our results suggest caution with regard to these frames in particular and that, more generally, frames that might seem advantageous when examining public opinion may not be when political behavior is analyzed.

     

Very high resolution rainfall patterns measured by TRMM precipitation radar: seasonal and diurnal cycles

The TRMM Precipitation Radar is used to construct a high resolution (0.05°?×?0.05°) climatology of rainfall over the latitude band extending to about 36° North and South. This study describes climatological patterns of rainfall frequency and intensity at high spatial resolution, with special focus on the seasonal and diurnal cycles in the frequency of rainfall events. We use this Tropics-wide dataset to highlight small-scale precipitation features that are too fine to be captured by the most widely used satellite-based rainfall datasets. The results shed light on the roles of changes in the wind direction, the land-sea thermal contrast, small-scale variations in sea surface temperature, and orography in shaping the seasonal and diurnal cycles of rainfall. In some regions of the tropics, diurnally locked local circulations are largely responsible for sharp gradients in the spatial distribution of seasonal mean precipitation. In other regions, we show that climatological rainfall frequency changes very sharply at coastlines, even though rainfall in these regions is expected to be controlled by relatively large scale weather systems.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin

We demonstrate that there is significant skill in the GloSea5 operational seasonal forecasting system for predicting June mean rainfall in the middle/lower Yangtze River basin up to four months in advance. Much of the rainfall in this region during June is contributed by the mei-yu rain band. We find that similar skill exists for predicting the East Asian summer monsoon index(EASMI) on monthly time scales, and that the latter could be used as a proxy to predict the regional rainfall. However, th...     

Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching

Climate Dynamics - We describe the method of history matching, a method currently used to help quantify parametric uncertainty in climate models, and argue for its use in identifying and removing...     

A comment on the continuity equation model of slope profile development and its boundary conditions

The constant base boundary condition used by Kirkby to derive characteristic form solutions to the continuity equation are unlikely in practice. Constant form solutions relying on constant basal erosion are however more probable.     

Application of trichloroacetic acid (TCA) to extraction of soft body for the determination of tissue Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn in the prosobranch Hydrobia ulvae (Pennant)

The application of trichloroacetic acid (TCA) as a shell extractant for preparation of soft body parts with reference to tissue metal concentrations (Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn) in shellfish has been evaluated on the example of the mud snail Hydrobia ulvae, a small marine prosobranch densely present in rocky and soft-bottom habitats of the eastern Atlantic. A solution of 0.1 M TCA was tested on individuals treated according to two different protocols: (1) thawed after freezing ("non-dried") and (2) thawed and air-dried to a constant weight ("dried"). Two points were investigated in detail to improve the method: individual soft tissue dry weight and tissue metal concentration following a standard digestion method. In both instances, the results were compared with those from manually dissected snails. Conditions for total shell decalcification of 60 individuals (3-4 mm long) were 5.5 h in 20 ml of 0.1 M TCA.No differences in individual soft tissue weight were observed between the treatments, indicating good efficiency of the TCA extraction with respect to weight of soft body parts. In contrast, tissue metal concentrations varied among treatments. The TCA extraction of the dried animals had a good recovery for Cd, most likely due to the lower solubility of Cd vital cellular components (proteins and mineral concretions) from the dried tissue. Satisfactory recoveries of the tissue concentrations of Cu and Pb were obtained for the non-dried individuals. This might be related to the specific distribution of metals in the organism (namely in the digestive glands and gonads) and their different chemical reactivity with TCA after the tissue was dried. Limited susceptibility of Zn-bearing protein bindings to complexing with TCA also accounts for significantly lower concentrations of Zn in the mud snail's soft tissue that was extracted. The 0.1 M TCA solution is therefore recommended for extraction of the shells of Hydrobia ulvae for tissue determination of Cd, Cu and Pb; however the treatment protocol does affect metal recovery and thus a consistent procedure should be followed.The extracted metals from the soft tissues and shells of the mud snails (on the basis of both metal concentrations and contents) were ranked in order of increasing contribution of soft body parts to the total (shell+tissue): Pb相似文献   

Long-term diagnostics of precipitation estimates and the development of radar hardware monitoring within a radar product data quality management system

Abstract

Quality is key to ensuring that the potential offered by weather radar networks is realized. To achieve optimum quality, a comprehensive radar data quality management system, designed to monitor the end-to-end radar data processing chain and evaluate product quality, is being developed at the UK Met Office. Three contrasting elements of this system are described: monitoring of key radar hardware performance indicators; generation of long-term integrations of radar products; and monitoring of radar reflectivity factor using synthesized observations from numerical weather prediction model fields. Examples of each component are presented and ways in which the different types of monitoring information have been used to both identify issues with the radar product data quality and help formulate solutions are given.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Harrison, D., Georgiou, S., Gaussiat, N., and Curtis, A., 2013. Long-term diagnostics of precipitation estimates and the development of radar hardware monitoring within a radar product data quality management system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1327–1342. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.841316     

Consistency of precipitation products over the Arabian Peninsula and interactions with soil moisture and water storage

The regional-scale consistency between four precipitation products from the GPCC, TRMM, WM, and CMORPH datasets over the Arabian Peninsula was assessed. Their macroscale relationships were inter-compared with soil moisture and total water storage (TWS) estimates from AMSR-E and GRACE. The consistency analysis was studied with multivariate statistical hypothesis testing and Pearson correlation metrics for the period from January 2000 to December 2010. The products and GRACE estimates were assessed over a representative sub-domain (United Arab Emirates) with available in situ well observations. Next, geographically temporally weighted regression (GTWR) was employed to examine the interdependencies among the peninsula’s hydrological components. The results showed GPCC-TRMM recording the highest correlation (0.85) with insignificant mean differences over more than 90% of the peninsula. The highest GTWR predictive performance of TWS (R² = 0.84) was achieved with TRMM forcing, which indicates its potential to monitor changes in TWS over the arid peninsular region.