Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching

Climate Dynamics - We describe the method of history matching, a method currently used to help quantify parametric uncertainty in climate models, and argue for its use in identifying and removing...     

Coupled convection and tidal dissipation in Europa’s ice shell

We performed 2D numerical simulations of oscillatory tidal flexing to study the interrelationship between tidal dissipation (calculated using the Maxwell model) and a heterogeneous temperature structure in Europa’s ice shell. Our 2D simulations show that, if the temperature is spatially uniform, the tidal dissipation rate peaks when the Maxwell time is close to the tidal period, consistent with previous studies. The tidal dissipation rate in a convective plume encased in a different background temperature depends on both the plume and background temperature. At a fixed background temperature, the dissipation increases strongly with plume temperature at low temperatures, peaks, and then decreases with temperature near the melting point when a melting-temperature viscosity of 10¹³ Pa s is used; however, the peak occurs at significantly higher temperature in this heterogeneous case than in a homogeneous medium for equivalent rheology. For constant plume temperature, the dissipation rate in a plume decreases as the surrounding temperature increases; plumes that are warmer than their surroundings can exhibit enhanced heating not only relative to their surroundings but relative to the Maxwell-model prediction for a homogeneous medium at the plume temperature. These results have important implications for thermal feedbacks in Europa’s ice shell.To self-consistently determine how convection interacts with tidal heating that is correctly calculated from the time-evolving heterogeneous temperature field, we coupled viscoelastic simulations of oscillatory tidal flexing (using Tekton) to long-term simulations of the convective evolution (using ConMan). Our simulations show that the tidal dissipation rate resulting from heterogeneous temperature can have a strong impact on thermal convection in Europa’s ice shell. Temperatures within upwelling plumes are greatly enhanced and can reach the melting temperature under plausible tidal-flexing amplitude for Europa. A pre-existing fracture zone (at least 6 km deep) promotes the concentration of tidal dissipation (up to ∼20 times more than that in the surroundings), leading to lithospheric thinning. This supports the idea that spatially variable tidal dissipation could lead locally to high temperatures, partial melting, and play an important role in the formation of ridges, chaos, or other features.     

Efficacy of a multi-metric fish index as an analysis tool for the transitional fish component of the Water Framework Directive

The WFD has introduced an international commitment to assess the ecological status of transitional waters (TWs), within which fish communities are a key biological monitoring component. The Transitional Fish Classification Index (TFCI) outlined in this paper uses 10 ecological measures to analyse fish populations caught from various ecological niches using a variety of gear types within the Thames estuary. These reach and method-specific communities are then compared to a reference population created from a 'healthy' population from TWs of a similar type. The results indicate a progressive downstream increase the quality of fish communities, consistent with previous work; variation between methods can be accounted for by gear selectivity. Overall, the TFCI is an effective communication tool for converting ecological information into an easily understood format for managers, policy makers and the general public.     

Experimental analysis of arsenic precipitation during microbial sulfate and iron reduction in model aquifer sediment reactors

Microbial SO₄²⁻ reduction limits accumulation of aqueous As in reducing aquifers where the sulfide that is produced forms minerals that sequester As. We examined the potential for As partitioning into As- and Fe-sulfide minerals in anaerobic, semi-continuous flow bioreactors inoculated with 0.5% (g mL⁻¹) fine-grained alluvial aquifer sediment. A fluid residence time of three weeks was maintained over a ca. 300-d incubation period by replacing one-third of the aqueous phase volume of the reactors with fresh medium every seven days. The medium had a composition comparable to natural As-contaminated groundwater with slightly basic pH (7.3) and 7.5 μM aqueous As(V) and also contained 0.8 mM acetate to stimulate microbial activity. Medium was delivered to a reactor system with and without 10 mmol L⁻¹ synthetic goethite (α-FeOOH). In both reactors, influent As(V) was almost completely reduced to As(III). Pure As-sulfide minerals did not form in the Fe-limited reactor. Realgar (As₄S₄) and As₂S₃(am) were undersaturated throughout the experiment. Orpiment (As₂S₃) was saturated while sulfide content was low (∼50 to 150 μM), but precipitation was likely limited by slow kinetics. Reaction-path modeling suggests that, even if these minerals had formed, the dissolved As content of the reactor would have remained at hazardous levels. Mackinawite (Fe_1 + xS; x ? 0.07) formed readily in the Fe-bearing reactor and held dissolved sulfide at levels below saturation for orpiment and realgar. The mackinawite sequestered little As (<0.1 wt.%), however, and aqueous As accumulated to levels above the influent concentration as microbial Fe(III) reduction consumed goethite and mobilized adsorbed As. A relatively small amount of pyrite (FeS₂) and greigite (Fe₃S₄) formed in the Fe-bearing reactor when we injected a polysulfide solution (Na₂S₄) to a final concentration of 0.5 mM after 216, 230, 279, and 286 days. The pyrite, and to a lesser extent the greigite, that formed did sequester As from solution, containing 0.84 and 0.23 wt.% As on average, respectively. Our results suggest that As precipitation during Fe-sulfide formation in nature occurs mainly in conjunction with pyrite formation. Our findings imply that the effectiveness of stimulating microbial SO₄²⁻ reduction to remediate As contamination may be limited by the rate and extent of pyrite formation and the solubility of As-sulfides.     

Diatoms indicate that calcium decline,not acidification,explains recent cladoceran assemblage changes in south-central Ontario softwater lakes

In recent decades, softwater lakes across Canada have experienced a wide array of anthropogenic influences, with acidification and climate warming of particular concern. Here, we compare modern and pre-industrial sedimentary diatom assemblages from 36 softwater lakes located on the Canadian Shield in south-central Ontario to determine whether lake acidification or reduced calcium availability was the main stressor responsible for recent declines in Ca-sensitive cladoceran taxa. Regional surveys of south-central Ontario water chemistry have identified the pH recovery of many formerly acidified lakes, and our fossil diatom-inferred pH analyses indicate that modern lakewater pH in the 36 study lakes is similar to (or higher than) pre-industrial levels, with diatom assemblages from both time periods dominated by taxa with similar pH preferences. In addition, modern diatom assemblages compared to pre-industrial assemblages contained higher relative abundances of planktonic diatom taxa (e.g. Asterionella formosa and the Discostella stelligera complex) and lower relative abundances of heavily silicified diatoms (e.g. Aulacoseira taxa) and benthic fragilarioid taxa. These taxonomic shifts are consistent with warming-induced changes in lake properties including a longer ice-free period, decreased wind speed and/or increased thermal stability. We conclude that recent changes observed within the cladoceran assemblages of these lakes are not a response to acidification, but are likely a consequence of Ca declines. In addition, our data suggest that regional climate warming is now responsible for the diatom changes observed in this region.     

Glacial and periglacial buzzsaws: fitting mechanisms to metaphors

The buzzsaw hypothesis refers to the potential for glacial and periglacial processes to rapidly denude mountains at and above glacier Equilibrium Line Altitudes (ELAs), irrespective of uplift rates, rock type or pre-existing topography. Here the appropriateness of the buzzsaw metaphor is examined alongside questions of the links between glacial erosion and ELAs, and whether the glacial system can produce low-relief surfaces or limit summit heights. Plateau fragments in mountains on both active orogens and passive margins that have been cited as products of glacial and periglacial buzzsaw erosion instead generally represent dissected remnants of largely inherited, pre-glacial relief. Summit heights may correlate with ELAs but no causal link need be implied as summit erosion rates are low, cirque headwalls may not directly abut summits and, on passive margins, cirques are cut into pre-existing mountain topography. Any simple links between ELAs and glacial erosion break down on passive margins due to topographic forcing of ice-sheet growth, and to the km-scale vertical swaths through which ELAs have shifted through the Quaternary. Glaciers destroy rather than create low-relief rock surfaces through the innate tendency for ice flow to be faster, thicker and warmer along valleys. The glacial buzzsaw cuts down.     

Groundwater management in northern Iraq

Groundwater is vital and the sole resource in most of the studied region of northern Iraq. It has a significant role in agriculture, water supply and health, and the elimination of poverty in rural areas. Although Iraq is currently dramatically disturbed by complex political and socio-economic problems, in its northern part, i.e. the Kurdish-inhabited region, fast urbanization and economic expansion are visible everywhere. Monitoring and water management schemes are necessary to prevent aquifer over-exploitation in the region. Artificial recharge with temporary runoff water, construction of subsurface dams and several other aquifer management and regulation measures have been designed, and some implemented, in order to improve the water situation. Recommendations, presented to the local professionals and decision-makers in water management, include creation of Water Master Plans and Water User Associations, synchronization of drilling programmes, rehabilitation of the existing well fields, opening of new well fields, and the incorporation of new spring intakes in some areas with large groundwater reserves, as well as construction of numerous small-scale schemes for initial in situ water treatment where saline groundwater is present.     

Virtual wave gauges based upon stereo imaging for measuring surface wave characteristics

A virtual wave gauge (VWG) technique based on stereo imaging is developed to remotely measure water wave height, period, and direction. VWG minimizes computational costs by directly tracking the elevation of the water surface at selected points of interest using a Eulerian based dynamic searching algorithm. Results show that the VWG technique developed in this paper dramatically improves efficiency by two orders of magnitude compared to the traditional Lagrangian–Eulerian based point cloud method of stereo image processing. VWG is tested against traditional wave wire gauges to within 98% accuracy for significant wave height. Furthermore, the flexibility of the VWG is demonstrated in two field applications. First in an offshore breaking wave case, an array of VWGs is used to efficiently measure wave directionality. Second to investigate the reflection coefficient of a rock-mounted structure interacting with nearshore waves, linear and spatial VWG arrays are designed and implemented based on a priori information of the wave field from a preliminary VWG measurement. Overall, we demonstrate that the flexible and computational efficient VWG technique has the potential to make real-time remote stereo imaging wave measurements a reality.     

Growing season evapotranspiration in boreal fens in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region: Variability and environmental controls

Current efforts to assess changes to the wetland hydrology caused by growing anthropogenic pressures in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) require well-founded spatial and temporal estimates of actual evapotranspiration (ET), which is the dominant component of the water budget in this region. This study assessed growing season (May–September) and peak growing season (July) ET variability at a treed moderate-rich fen and treed poor fen (in 2013–2018), open poor fen (in 2011–2014), and saline fen (in 2015–2018) using eddy covariance technique and a set of complementary environmental data. Seasonal fluctuations in ET were positively related to net radiation, air temperature and vapour pressure deficit and followed trends typical for the Boreal Plains (BP) and AOSR with highest rates in June–July. However, no strong effect of water table position on ET was found. Strong surface control on ET is evident from lower ET values than potential evapotranspiration (PET); the lowest ET/PET was observed at saline fen, followed by open fen, moderately treed fen, and heavily treed fen, suggesting a strong influence of vegetation on water loss. In most years PET exceeded precipitation (P), and positive relations between P/PET and ET were observed with the highest July ET rates occurring under P/PET ~1. However, during months with P/PET > 1, increased P/PET was associated with decreased July ET. With respect to 30-year mean values of air temperature and P in the area, both dry and wet, cool and warm growing seasons (GS) were observed. No clear trends between ET values and GS wetness/coldness were found, but all wet GS were characterized by peak growing seasons with high daily ET variability.