Earthquake Forecasting Using Hidden Markov Models

This paper develops a novel method, based on hidden Markov models, to forecast earthquakes and applies the method to mainshock seismic activity in southern California and western Nevada. The forecasts are of the probability of a mainshock within 1, 5, and 10 days in the entire study region or in specific subregions and are based on the observations available at the forecast time, namely the interevent times and locations of the previous mainshocks and the elapsed time since the most recent one. Hidden Markov models have been applied to many problems, including earthquake classification; this is the first application to earthquake forecasting.     

Highly reducing conditions during Alpine metamorphism of the Malenco peridotite (Sondrio,northern Italy) indicated by mineral paragenesis and H2 in fluid inclusions

During regional metamorphism of the Malenco serpentinized peridotite (Sondrio, northern Italy), the mineral assemblage pentlandite-awaruite-magnetite-native copper-antigorite-brucite-olivine-diopside is formed. The opaque assemblage indicates very reduced fluids with fO₂ values 4 log units below QFM. Primary fluid inclusions were trapped in diopside overgrowth, contemporaneous with the opaque assemblage. These metamorphic fluids are saline aqueous solutions (about 10.4 mol% NaCl equivalent) and contain molecular H₂ of approximately 1 mol%, as shown by micro-Raman analysis and microthermometry. The fluids are interpreted to have been formed during deserpentinization at the olivine-in isograd under strong reducing conditions.     

Meta‐analysis of field‐saturated hydraulic conductivity recovery following wildland fire: Applications for hydrologic model parameterization and resilience assessment

Hydrologic recovery after wildfire is critical for restoring the ecosystem services of protecting of human lives and infrastructure from hazards and delivering water supply of sufficient quality and quantity. Recovery of soil‐hydraulic properties, such as field‐saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_fs), is a key factor for assessing the duration of watershed‐scale flash flood and debris flow risks after wildfire. Despite the crucial role of K_fs in parameterizing numerical hydrologic models to predict the magnitude of postwildfire run‐off and erosion, existing quantitative relations to predict K_fs recovery with time since wildfire are lacking. Here, we conduct meta‐analyses of 5 datasets from the literature that measure or estimate K_fs with time since wildfire for longer than 3‐year duration. The meta‐analyses focus on fitting 2 quantitative relations (linear and non‐linear logistic) to explain trends in K_fs temporal recovery. The 2 relations adequately described temporal recovery except for 1 site where macropore flow dominated infiltration and K_fs recovery. This work also suggests that K_fs can have low hydrologic resistance (large postfire changes), and moderate to high hydrologic stability (recovery time relative to disturbance recurrence interval) and resilience (recovery of hydrologic function and provision of ecosystem services). Future K_fs relations could more explicitly incorporate processes such as soil‐water repellency, ground cover and soil structure regeneration, macropore recovery, and vegetation regrowth.     

Earthquakes in the Eastern Great Lakes Basin from a regional perspective

This paper presents a summary of the seismicity and its relation to stress and geologic structures in the Eastern Great Lakes Basin (EGLB) and compares it with that of other regions in the central and eastern North America (CENA). The earthquakes scattered throughout the EGLB are occurring at a rate somewhat less than that of the Appalachians and along the Atlantic Seaboard. Paleoseismology studies suggest that the lower seismicity rate may be characteristic of the EGLB since the Late Wisconsin. North of the EGLB, earthquakes have primarily thrust mechanisms, while to the south of the EGLB, most earthquakes are strike-slip. Throughout the region, including the EGLB, the average P axes of the earthquakes are oriented NE–SW and are aligned with the direction of the current plate driving stress. On a regional basis, earthquakes are centered primarily in the Precambrian basement beneath the Paleozoic cover. Many of the earthquakes in the EGLB have occurred in areas of preexisting faults, at least some of which may have been active during past episodes of continental rifting. For individual faults that have been studied in some detail, however, it is not clear whether earthquakes represent reactivations of local preexisting structures or nucleation of new ruptures in or near the old fault zones.     

Djerfisherite: nebular source of refractory potassium

Djerfisherite is an important carrier of potassium in highly reduced enstatite chondrites, where it occurs in sub-round metal-sulfide nodules. These nodules were once free-floating objects in the protoplanetary nebula. Here, we analyze existing and new data to derive an equation of state (EOS) for djerfisherites of $ {\text{K}}_{ 6} ({\text{Cu}},{\text{Fe}},{\text{Ni}})^{B} ({\text{Fe}},{\text{Ni}},{\text{Cu}})_{24}^{C} {\text{S}}_{ 2 6} {\text{Cl}} $ K 6 ( Cu , Fe , Ni ) B ( Fe , Ni , Cu ) 24 C S 2 6 Cl structural formula. We use this EOS to calculate the thermal stability of djerfisherite coexisting in equilibrium with a cooling vapor of solar composition enriched in a dust analogous to anhydrous, chondritic interplanetary dust (C-IDP). We find that condensed mineral assemblages closely match those found in enstatite chondrites, with djerfisherite condensing above 1,000 K in C-IDP dust-enriched systems. Results may have implications for the volatile budgets of terrestrial planets and the incorporation of K into early formed, highly reduced, planetary cores. Previous work links enstatite chondrites to the planet Mercury, where the surface has a terrestrial K/Th ratio, high S/Si ratio, and very low FeO content. Mercury’s accretion history may yield insights into Earth’s.     

Sources of inherent infiltration variability in postwildfire soils

An automated disc infiltrometer was developed to improve the measurements of soil hydraulic properties (saturated hydraulic conductivity and sorptivity) of soils affected by wildfire. Guidelines are given for interpreting curves showing cumulative infiltration as a function of time measured by the autodisc. The autodisc was used to measure the variability of these soil hydraulic properties in three different sample sets: (a) a reference soil consisting of a nonrepellent, uniform, fine sand; (b) soils with the same soil textural classification derived from the same bedrock geology but having different initial burn severities; and (c) soils from different bedrock geology but having the same burn severity. The autodisc infiltrometer had greater sampling rates and volume resolution when compared with the visual minidisc infiltrometer from previous studies. There was no statistical difference in the mean values measured using the autodisc and visual minidisc, but the variability of the autodisc measurements was significantly less than the visual minidisc for a given set of samples. The greatest variability of soil hydraulic properties in reference samples with uniform particle size was attributed to different pore geometries (coefficient of variation [COV] = 0.28–0.34). Unburned field samples (same soil type) with heterogeneous particle sizes had greater variability (COV = 0.57–0.78) than the reference samples. However, this basic variability decreased or remained constant in these field samples as burn severity increased. Additional sources of variability (COV = 0.53–1.99) were attributed to multiple layers resulting from ash or sediment deposition. Results indicate that resolving differences in soil hydraulic properties from different sites requires more than the common 10 random samples because of the multiple sources of variability.     

Simulating the temporal and spatial dynamics of the North Sea using the new model GETM (general estuarine transport model)

Here we present results of a 1-year realistic North Sea simulation from the new model GETM (general estuarine transport model) and assess the capabilities of this model by comparing them to model results from the well-known HAMSOM (Hamburg shelf sea and ocean model) model, in situ data from the North Sea project and satellite-derived sea-surface temperature data. The annual cycle and the spatial variability of stratification and mixing in the North Sea is simulated. It is shown that the new model is successful in reproducing the general temporal and spatial dynamics of the North Sea. The major advantages of GETM for achieving improved results in this simulation are the implementation of general vertical coordinates, of a state-of-the-art turbulence model and of higher-order advection schemes. By exploiting the full capabilities of these features a more realistic simulation could be achieved. We found that the greatest differences in the model results are produced by applying advection schemes of different complexity. Here we are able to demonstrate that better advection schemes lead to stronger horizontal gradients and stronger vertical stratification during summer. When comparing these results to measurements from the North Sea project and to satellite data, we find that these stronger gradients are more realistic. Therefore, we consider it as essential to use such high-order advection schemes if the spatial variability of estuarine or shelf seas like the North Sea is to be resolved adequately. The advanced turbulence closure scheme also contributed to more realistic simulation of the vertical stratification. Finally, general vertical coordinates better resolve the shallow regions, but are also useful for the deeper regions, as they allow a better estimation of sea-surface temperature compared to traditional coordinates.Responsible Editor: Phil Dyke     

Zur Frage Kaledonischer Tektonik und Magmabewegung im Variskischen Gebirge Nordostbayerns

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Projection of runoff characteristics as a response to regional climate change in a Central/Eastern European catchment

ABSTRACT

The impact of climate change on runoff characteristics is investigated for the Upper Tisza basin, in eastern Central Europe. For a reliable estimation of uncertainty, an appropriate stochastic weather generator is embedded into a Monte Carlo cycle capable of generating any large number of independent, equally probable, 100-year-long daily sequences of synthetic data with which a hydrological model is driven in order to obtain the hydrological responses to the meteorological data sequences. According to our results, a decrease of daily average runoff is likely to occur in the future in the Upper Tisza basin, especially in July and August. The occurrence of water levels below the critical low level is estimated to increase between July and October. Level-3 flood warnings are projected to be less frequent in the future; however, they will tend to be more severe than in the historical period.