Model tree approach for prediction of pile groups scour due to waves

Scour around piles could endanger the stability of the structures placed on them. Hence, an accurate estimation of the scour depth around piles is very important in coastal and marine engineering. Due to the complex interaction between the wave, seabed and pile group; prediction of the scour depth is not an easy task and the available empirical formulas have limited accuracy. Recently, soft computing methods such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) have been used for the prediction of the scour depth. However, these methods do not give enough insight about the process and are not as easy to use as the empirical equations. In this study, new formulas are given that are easy to use, accurate and physically sound. Available empirical equations for estimating the pile group scour depth such as those of Sumer et al. (1992) and Bayram and Larson (2000), are less accurate compared to the given equations. These equations are as accurate as other soft computing methods such as ANN and SVM. Moreover, in this study, safety factors are given for different levels of acceptable risks, which can be so useful for engineers.     

Influence of strong sudden stratospheric warmings on ozone in the middle stratosphere according to millimeter wave observations

This paper reports the study data on variations in the ozone content in the middle stratosphere over Moscow based on millimeter wavelength observations during a range of midwinter sudden stratospheric warmings that occurred in the past two decades. The relation of ozone with planetary waves and the intensity of the polar stratospheric vortex has been established. The ozone vertical distribution has been monitored with a highly sensitive spectrometer with a two-millimeter wave band. The discovered phenomena of a relatively long-term lower ozone content in December in the considered cold half-year periods are related to the higher amplitude of the planetary wave with n = 1. Such phenomena preceded the development of strong midwinter stratospheric warmings, which, in turn, were accompanied by a significant increase in the ozone content in January. This ozone enrichment was related to the lower amplitude of the wave with n = 1 and higher amplitude of the wave with n = 2 and was accompanied by geopotential H _c.v. growth in the polar vortex center. Specific features of variations in the ozone content under the influence of the major atmospheric processes are observed not only in certain cold half-year periods but are also well seen in the general averaged pattern for winters with strong stratospheric warmings.     

Composition of the core,I. Solubility of oxygen in molten iron at high temperatures

Experiments on the solubility of FeO in molten iron have been carried out at temperatures between 2100 and 2550°C. The results show that liquid FeO is extensively soluble in molten iron at 2500°C and indicate that they probably become completely miscible above 2800°C. Liquid iron in equilibrium with crystalline magnesiowüstite (Mg_0.8Fe_0.2)O which is believed to be an important mineral in the lower mantle, would dissolve about 14 mol.% of FeO at 2500°C and 40 mol.% of FeO at 2800°C. The geochemical implications of these results are discussed. It is concluded that the outer core probably contains a large amount of dissolved FeO and that oxygen is probably the principal light element in the outer core.     

Ionospheric measurements of relative coronal brightness during the total solar eclipses of 11 August, 1999 and 9 July, 1945

Swept-frequency (1/10 MHz) ionosonde measurements were made at Helston, Cornwall (50°06N, 5°18W) during the total solar eclipse on August 11, 1999. Soundings were made every three minutes. We present a method for estimating the percentage of the ionising solar radiation which remains unobscured at any time during the eclipse by comparing the variation of the ionospheric E-layer with the behaviour of the layer during a control day. Application to the ionosonde date for 11 August, 1999, shows that the flux of solar ionising radiation fell to a minimum of 25±2% of the value before and after the eclipse. For comparison, the same technique was also applied to measurements made during the total solar eclipse of 9 July, 1945, at Sörmjöle (63°68N, 20°20E) and yielded a corresponding minimum of 16 ± 2%. Therefore the method can detect variations in the fraction of solar emissions that originate from the unobscured corona and chromosphere. We discuss the differences between these two eclipses in terms of the nature of the eclipse, short-term fluctuations, the sunspot cycle and the recently-discovered long-term change in the coronal magnetic field.     

The Boumerdes (Algeria) earthquake of May 21, 2003 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> = 6.8): Ground deformation and intensity

A destructive earthquake of magnitude M_w = 6.8 hit the region of Boumerdes and Algiers (Algeria) on May 21, 2003. This is among the strongest seismic events of the mediterranean region and the most important event in the capital Algiers since 1716. It caused a widespread damage in the epicentral region, claimed 2271 human lives, injured 10000, about 20000 housing units affected and left about 160000 homeless. The main shock was felt about 250 km far from the epicenter and triggered sea waves of 1–3 m in amplitude in Balearic islands (Spain). Based on field observations and press report an intensity IX (MSK scale) is attributed to the epicentral area. The main shock was followed by many aftershocks among them several are of magnitude greater than 5.0, which added panic to inhabitants. The main shock triggered ground deformation, particularly liquefaction whose features are in different forms and sizes and caused damage and collapse of roads. The focal mechanism determined by worldwide institutions yield a pure reverse faulting with a compressional axis striking NE-SW. The epicenter is located offshore about 7 km from the Boumerdes-Dellys coast. Field observations show 0.7 m of coseismic uplift of shoreline between Boudouaou and Dellys. This uplift is about a half of the extracted coseismic slip from the seismic moment. On the other hand there is no clear surface break onshore, confirming hence, that the causative active fault is offshore. However, the rupture may propagate onshore to the SE near the Boudouaou region where ground cracks showing reverse faulting are observed a long a corridor of about 1 km wide. These fissures may correspond to a diffuse coseismic deformation.     

The eruptive history of the Tequila volcanic field, western Mexico: ages, volumes, and relative proportions of lava types

The eruptive history of the Tequila volcanic field (1600 km²) in the western Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt is based on ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar chronology and volume estimates for eruptive units younger than 1 Ma. Ages are reported for 49 volcanic units, including Volcán Tequila (an andesitic stratovolcano) and peripheral domes, flows, and scoria cones. Volumes of volcanic units 1 Ma were obtained with the aid of field mapping, ortho aerial photographs, digital elevation models (DEMs), and ArcGIS software. Between 1120 and 200 kyrs ago, a bimodal distribution of rhyolite (~35 km³) and high-Ti basalt (~39 km³) dominated the volcanic field. Between 685 and 225 kyrs ago, less than 3 km³ of andesite and dacite erupted from more than 15 isolated vents; these lavas are crystal-poor and show little evidence of storage in an upper crustal chamber. Approximately 200 kyr ago, ~31 km³ of andesite erupted to form the stratocone of Volcán Tequila. The phenocryst assemblage of these lavas suggests storage within a chamber at ~2–3 km depth. After a hiatus of ~110 kyrs, ~15 km³ of andesite erupted along the W and SE flanks of Volcán Tequila at ~90 ka, most likely from a second, discrete magma chamber located at ~5–6 km depth. The youngest volcanic feature (~60 ka) is the small andesitic volcano Cerro Tomasillo (~2 km³). Over the last 1 Myr, a total of 128±22 km³ of lava erupted in the Tequila volcanic field, leading to an average eruption rate of ~0.13 km³/kyr. This volume erupted over ~1600 km², leading to an average lava accumulation rate of ~8 cm/kyr. The relative proportions of lava types are ~22–43% basalt, ~0.4–1% basaltic andesite, ~29–54% andesite, ~2–3% dacite, and ~18–40% rhyolite. On the basis of eruptive sequence, proportions of lava types, phenocryst assemblages, textures, and chemical composition, the lavas do not reflect the differentiation of a single (or only a few) parental liquids in a long-lived magma chamber. The rhyolites are geochemically diverse and were likely formed by episodic partial melting of upper crustal rocks in response to emplacement of basalts. There are no examples of mingled rhyolitic and basaltic magmas. Whatever mechanism is invoked to explain the generation of andesite at the Tequila volcanic field, it must be consistent with a dominantly bimodal distribution of high-Ti basalt and rhyolite for an 800 kyr interval beginning ~1 Ma, which abruptly switched to punctuated bursts of predominantly andesitic volcanism over the last 200 kyrs.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at Editorial responsility: J. Donnelly-NolanThis revised version was published online in January 2005 with corrections to Tables 1 and 3.An erratum to this article can be found at     

Combined method for detecting hidden anomalies in galactic cosmic ray variations

A method has been proposed for detecting hidden periodicities in nonstationary finite time series with strong noise. The successive application of the spectral singular expansion and wavelet transform makes it possible to calculate the energy of short signals with an arbitrary form against a suppressing noise back-ground, the amplitude of which is several times as large as that of a useful signal. This method has been used to identify variations in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux related to IMF disturbances due to the earthward propagation of solar magnetic clouds in the heliosphere.     

Numerical modelling of the transverse dynamic behaviour of circular tunnels in clayey soils

In this paper, different approaches aimed at investigating the dynamic behaviour of circular tunnels in the transverse direction are presented. The analysed cases refer to a shallow tunnel built in two different clayey deposits. The adopted approaches include 1D numerical analyses performed modelling the soil as a single-phase visco-elastic non-linear medium, the results of which are then used to evaluate the input data for selected analytical solutions proposed in the literature (uncoupled approach), and 2D fully coupled FE simulations adopting visco-elastic and visco-elasto-plastic effective stress models for the soil (coupled approach). The results are proposed in terms of seismic-induced loads in the transverse direction of the tunnel lining. The different constitutive hypotheses adopted in the coupled numerical approach prove to play a significant role on the results. In particular, the plasticity-based analyses indicate that a seismic event can produce a substantial modification of loads acting in the lining, leading to permanent increments of both hoop force and bending moment.     

Modeling 3D thermal fracture propagation by transient cooling using virtual multidimensional internal bonds

Thermal fracturing can play an important role in development of unconventional petroleum and geothermal resources. Thermal fractures can result from the nonlinear deformation of the rock in response to thermal stress related to cold water injection as well as heating. Before the rock reaches the final failure stage, material softening and bulk modulus degradation can cause changes in the thermo‐mechanical properties of the solid. In order to capture this aspect of the rock fracture, a virtual multidimensional internal bond‐based thermo‐mechanical model is derived to track elastic, softening, and the failure stages of the rock in response to the temporal changes of its temperature field. The variations in thermo‐mechanical properties of the rock are derived from a nonlinear constitutive model. To represent the thermo‐mechanical behavior of pre‐existing fractures, the element partition method is employed. Using the model, numerical simulation of 3D thermal fracture propagation in brittle rock is carried out. Results of numerical simulations provide evidence of model verification and illustrate nonlinear thermal response and fracture development in rock under uniform cooling. In addition, fracture coalescence in a cluster of fractures under thermal stress is illustrated, and the process of thermal fracturing from a wellbore is captured. Results underscore the importance of thermal stress in reservoir stimulation and show the effectiveness of the model to predict 3D thermal fracturing. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.