Understanding the relative impacts of natural processes and human activities on the hydrology of the Central Rift Valley lakes,East Africa

Significant changes have been observed in the hydrology of Central Rift Valley (CRV) lakes in Ethiopia, East Africa as a result of both natural processes and human activities during the past three decades. This study applied an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modelling, and statistical analysis) to understand the relative effects of natural processes and human activities over a sparsely gauged CRV basin. Lake storage estimates were calculated from a hydrologic model constructed without inputs from human impacts such as water abstraction and compared with satellite‐based (observed) lake storage measurements to characterize the magnitude of human‐induced impacts. A non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to detect the presence of climatic trends (e.g. a decreasing or increasing trends in precipitation), while the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) analysis was used to assess the long‐term, inter‐annual climate variability within the basin. Results indicate human activities (e.g. abstraction) significantly contributed to the changes in the hydrology of the lakes, while no statistically significant climatic trend was seen in the basin, however inter‐annual natural climate variability, extreme dryness, and prolonged drought has negatively affected the lakes. The relative contributions of natural and human‐induced impacts on the lakes were quantified and evaluated by comparing hydrographs of the CRV lakes. Lake Abiyata has lost ~6.5 m in total lake height between 1985 and 2006, 70% (~4.5 m) of the loss has been attributed to human‐induced causes, whereas the remaining 30% is related to natural climate variability. The relative impact analysis utilized in this study could potentially be used to better plan and create effective water‐management practices in the basin and demonstrates the utility of this integrated methodology for similar studies assessing the relative natural and human‐induced impacts on lakes in data sparse areas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting the dependency of a degree of saturation on void ratio and suction using effective stress principle for unsaturated soils

The paper presents an approach to predicting variation of a degree of saturation in unsaturated soils with void ratio and suction. The approach is based on the effective stress principle for unsaturated soils and several underlying assumptions. It focuses on the main drying and wetting processes and does not incorporate the effects of hydraulic hysteresis. It leads to the dependency of water retention curve (WRC) on void ratio, which does not require any material parameters apart from the parameters specifying WRC for the reference void ratio. Its validity is demonstrated by comparing predictions with the experimental data on four different soils taken over from the literature. Good correlation between the measured and predicted behaviour indirectly supports applicability of the effective stress principle for unsaturated soils. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Root‐related rhodochrosite and concretionary siderite formation in oxygen‐deficient conditions induced by a ground‐water table rise

Sedimentological, mineralogical, stable carbon and oxygen isotope determinations and biomarker analyses were performed on siderite concretions occurring in terrestrial silts to understand their formation and to characterize the sedimentary and diagenetic conditions favouring their growth. High δ¹³C values (6·4‰ on average) indicate that siderite precipitated in an anoxic environment where bacterial methanogenesis operated. The development of anoxic conditions during shallow burial was induced by a change in sedimentary environment from flood plain to swamp, related to a rise of the ground‐water table. Large amounts of decaying plant debris led to efficient oxygen consumption within the pore‐water in the peat. Oxygen depletion, in combination with a decrease in sedimentation rate, promoted anoxic diagenetic conditions under the swamp and favoured abundant siderite precipitation. This shows how a change in sedimentary conditions can have a profound impact on the early‐diagenetic environment and carbonate authigenesis. The concretions contain numerous rhizoliths; they are cemented with calcium‐rhodochrosite, a feature which has not been reported before. The rhodochrosite cement has negative δ¹³C values (?16·5‰ on average) and precipitated in suboxic conditions due to microbial degradation of roots coupled to manganese reduction. The exceptional preservation of the epidermis/exodermis and xylem vessels of former root tissues indicates that the rhodochrosite formed shortly after the death of a root in water‐logged sediments. Rhodochrosite precipitated during the initial stages of concretionary growth in suboxic microenvironments within roots, while siderite cementation occurred simultaneously around them in anoxic conditions. These suboxic microenvironments developed because oxygen was transported from the overlying oxygenated soil into sediments saturated with anoxic water via roots acting as permeable conduits. This model explains how separate generations of carbonate cements having different mineralogy and isotopic compositions, which would conventionally be regarded as cements precipitated sequentially in different diagenetic zones during gradual burial, can form simultaneously in shallow burial settings where strong redox gradients exist around vertically oriented permeable root structures.     

Politics of technology in the informal governance of destructive fishing in Spermonde,Indonesia

Technology has politics and plays a role in societal governance. This article explores the fishing community of Karanrang island (Spermonde Archipelago, Indonesia) to consider how fishing technologies reinforce existing power structures in the local informal governance system. Informal governance actors deploy the politics of technology in order to manage a socially problematic and environmentally destructive fishing economy. In the punggawa-sawi system of patron-client relationships, fishers are economically dependent on patrons, who supply them with fishing technologies like boats, bombs, and cyanide. The patrons themselves are embedded in a complex governance network, encompassing corrupt police and officials, importers, and live food fish traders. The politics of technology contribute to maintaining the local informal governance system of patron-client relationships. This paper draws upon theories from science and technology studies and network governance to argue that although patron-client relationships are problematic in themselves, the politics of technology further maintain power imbalances.     

Convective and stratiform precipitation characteristics in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

We apply a recently proposed algorithm for disaggregating observed precipitation data into predominantly convective and stratiform, and evaluate biases in characteristics of parameterized convective (subgrid) and stratiform (large-scale) precipitation in an ensemble of 11 RCM simulations for recent climate in Central Europe. All RCMs have a resolution of 25 km and are driven by the ERA-40 reanalysis. We focus on mean annual cycle, proportion of convective precipitation, dependence on altitude, and extremes. The results show that characteristics of total precipitation are often better simulated than are those of convective and stratiform precipitation evaluated separately. While annual cycles of convective and stratiform precipitation are reproduced reasonably well in most RCMs, some of them consistently and substantially overestimate or underestimate the proportion of convective precipitation throughout the year. Intensity of convective precipitation is underestimated in all RCMs. Dependence on altitude is also simulated better for stratiform and total precipitation than for convective precipitation, for which several RCMs produce unrealistic slopes. Extremes are underestimated for convective precipitation while they tend to be slightly overestimated for stratiform precipitation, thus resulting in a relatively good reproduction of extremes in total precipitation amounts. The results suggest that the examined ensemble of RCMs suffers from substantial deficiencies in reproducing precipitation processes and support previous findings that climate models’ errors in precipitation characteristics are mainly related to deficiencies in the representation of convection.     

Modeling Urban Land Use Changes Using Support Vector Machines

Support Vector Machines (SVM) is a machine learning (ML) algorithm commonly applied to the classification of remotely sensing data and more recently for modeling land use changes. However, in most geospatial applications the current literature does not elaborate on specifications of the SVM method with respect to data sampling, attribute selection and optimal parameters choices. Therefore the main objective of this study is to present and investigate the SVM technique for modeling urban land use change. The SVM model building procedure is presented together with the detailed evaluation of the output results with respect to the choice of datasets, attributes and the change of SVM parameters. Geospatial datasets containing nine land use classes and spatial attributes for the Municipality of Zemun, Republic of Serbia were used for years 2001, 2003, 2007 and 2011. The Correlation‐based Feature Subset method, kappa coefficient, Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) and kappa simulation were used to perform the model evaluation and compare the model outputs with the real land use datasets. The obtained results indicate that the SVM‐based models perform better when implementing balanced data sampling, reduced data sets to informative subsets of attributes and properly identify the optimal learning parameters.     

Stratigraphic and lithologic characteristics of Pleistocene fluvial deposits in the Danube and Sava riparian area near Belgrade (Serbia)

The Quaternary sediments in the Danube and Sava riparian area near Belgrade have a considerable thickness. Several categories of deposits (fluvial-lacustrine, fluvial and aeolian) of Pliocene and Quaternary age have been identified. Their thickness, granulometric composition and paleontological features change depending on the distance from the recent Danube and Sava riverbeds. The Pleistocene fluvial deposits are underlain by sediments of the Late Miocene (Sarmatian and Pannonian) or the Plio-Pleistocene age, and are overlain by fluvial-palustrine deposits of the Pleistocene age and recent alluvial deposits. Pleistocene fluvial deposits that form a major part of the Quaternary sediments, have a great significance, since they are proved to be excellent collectors of ground water. Although these deposits are at lower altitudes in the area of Srem, they could be correlated with the high Danube and Morava terraces in Serbia and Drava in Croatia on the basis of their lithologic and paleontological features.