Can tidal perturbations associated with sea level variations in the western Pacific Ocean be used to understand future effects of tidal evolution?

This study examines connections between mean sea level (MSL) variability and diurnal and semidiurnal tidal constituent variations at 17 open-ocean and 9 continental shelf tide gauges in the western tropical Pacific Ocean, a region showing anomalous rise in MSL over the last 20 years and strong interannual variability. Detrended MSL fluctuations are correlated with detrended tidal amplitude and phase fluctuations, defined as tidal anomaly trends (TATs), to quantify the response of tidal properties to MSL variation. About 20 significant amplitude and phase TATs are found for each of the two strongest tidal constituents, K₁ (diurnal) and M₂ (semidiurnal). Lesser constituents (O₁ and S₂) show trends at nearly half of all gauges. Fluctuations in MSL shift amplitudes and phases; both positive and negative responses occur. Changing overtides suggest that TATs are influenced by changing shallow water friction over the equatorial Western Pacific and the eastern coast of Australia (especially near the Great Barrier Reef). There is a strong connection between semidiurnal TATs at stations around the Solomon Islands and changes in thermocline depth, overtide generation, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). TATs for O₁, K₁, and M₂ are related to each other in a manner that suggests transfer of energy from M₂ to the two diurnals via resonant triad interactions; these cause major tidal variability on sub-decadal time scales, especially for M₂. The response of tides to MSL variability is not only spatially complex, it is frequency dependent; therefore, short-term responses may not predict long-term behavior.     

Microstructure measures and the minimum size of a representative volume element: 2D numerical study

In the paper, a numerical study of the size of a representative volume element (RVE) for both the heat flow as well as the linear elasticity problems is presented. A particular two-phase random microstructure is studied and the method is applied to the digital image of reconstructed 2D realization of random media. The minimum size of RVE is determined by the investigation of the convergence of apparent properties as the size of RVE is increasing. Then, two estimates of the minimum RVE size are proposed and it is shown that the estimates are in a good agreement with the results determined by the investigation of the convergence of apparent properties. The minimum size of RVE can be successfully predicted based only on the microstructure morphology. The statistical measures used in this work are: the two-point probability and the linealpath functions.     

Influence of heterogeneous air entry pressure on large scale unsaturated flow in porous media

The paper presents numerical simulations of water infiltration in unsaturated porous media containing coarse-textured inclusions embedded in fine-textured background material. The calculations are performed using the two-phase model for water and air flow and a simplified model known as the Richards equation. It is shown that the Richards equation cannot correctly describe flow in the presence of heterogeneities. However, its performance can be improved by introducing appropriately defined effective capillary and permeability functions, representing largescale behaviour of the heterogeneous medium.     

Statistical downscaling of historical monthly mean winds over a coastal region of complex terrain. II. Predicting wind components

A regression-based downscaling technique was applied to monthly mean surface wind observations from stations throughout western Canada as well as from buoys in the Northeast Pacific Ocean over the period 1979–2006. A predictor set was developed from principal component analysis of the three wind components at 500?hPa and mean sea-level pressure taken from the NCEP Reanalysis II. Building on the results of a companion paper, Curry et al. (Clim Dyn 2011, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1173-3), the downscaling was applied to both wind speed and wind components, in an effort to evaluate the utility of each type of predictand. Cross-validated prediction skill varied strongly with season, with autumn and summer displaying the highest and lowest skill, respectively. In most cases wind components were predicted with better skill than wind speeds. The predictive ability of wind components was found to be strongly related to their orientation. Wind components with the best predictions were often oriented along topographically significant features such as constricted valleys, mountain ranges or ocean channels. This influence of directionality on predictive ability is most prominent during autumn and winter at inland sites with complex topography. Stations in regions with relatively flat terrain (where topographic steering is minimal) exhibit inter-station consistencies including region-wide seasonal shifts in the direction of the best predicted wind component. The conclusion that wind components can be skillfully predicted only over a limited range of directions at most stations limits the scope of statistically downscaled wind speed predictions. It seems likely that such limitations apply to other regions of complex terrain as well.     

A sedimentary facies model for glacial-age sediments in Baldwin Lake, Southern California

A combined sedimentological and high-resolution petrographic analysis was conducted on a glacial-age (20,000–65,000 cal yr BP) sediment core from Baldwin Lake, Southern California. The results of this research represent the most complete glacial-age, terrestrial climate record from Southern California to date. These results are used to characterize the different sediment types and to investigate the difference in depositional processes and environments between the core's three predominant sediment types: massive, semi-laminated, and laminated sediments. Massive sediments are commonly associated with a blocky texture and/or desiccation cracks, are organic-poor, have high magnetic susceptibility values, and are coarser-grained. Thin-sections from massive sediments reveal a homogenous sediment fabric. Sub-centimeter-scale laminated and centimeter-scale semi-laminated sediments are generally organic-rich, have low magnetic susceptibility values, and are finer grained. Thin-sections from laminated and semi-laminated sediments reveal diffuse sub-millimeter- to millimeter-scale laminae. This combination of sedimentological and high-resolution petrographic data enabled us to characterize four sediment facies, each related to specific depositional processes and environments: (1) a playa lake; (2) a perennial shallow lake; (3) an intermediate lake with variable lake level; and, (4) a perennial deep lake. At centennial-to millennial-timescales, lower lake levels are represented by deposition of massive to semi-laminated sediments in a playa to a perennial shallow lake environment. At similar timescales, higher lake levels are recorded by semi-laminated to laminated sediments deposited in an intermediate lake to a perennial deep lake environment. These results provide an additional sedimentological study for comparison to similar arid environment basins, and for comparison to existing regional paleoclimatic reconstructions.     

Spatiotemporal variations of extreme sea levels around the South China Sea: assessing the influence of tropical cyclones,monsoons and major climate modes

With sea levels projected to rise as a result of climate change, it is imperative to understand not only long-term average trends, but also the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme sea level. In this study, we use a comprehensive set of 30 tide gauges spanning 1954–2014 to characterize the spatial and temporal variations of extreme sea level around the low-lying and densely populated margins of the South China Sea. We also explore the long-term evolution of extreme sea level by applying a dynamic linear model for the generalized extreme value distribution (DLM-GEV), which can be used for assessing the changes in extreme sea levels with time. Our results show that the sea-level maxima distributions range from ~?90 to 400 cm and occur seasonally across the South China Sea. In general, the sea-level maxima at northern tide gauges are approximately 25–30% higher than those in the south and are highest in summer as tropical cyclone-induced surges dominate the northern signal. In contrast, the smaller signal in the south is dominated by monsoonal winds in the winter. The trends of extreme high percentiles of sea-level values are broadly consistent with the changes in mean sea level. The DLM-GEV model characterizes the interannual variability of extreme sea level, and hence, the 50-year return levels at most tide gauges. We find small but statistically significant correlations between extreme sea level and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Our study provides new insight into the dynamic relationships between extreme sea level, mean sea level and the tidal cycle in the South China Sea, which can contribute to preparing for coastal risks at multi-decadal timescales.

     

Experimental constraints on the relative stabilities of the two systems monazite-(Ce) – allanite-(Ce) – fluorapatite and xenotime-(Y) – (Y,HREE)-rich epidote – (Y,HREE)-rich fluorapatite,in high Ca and Na-Ca environments under P-T conditions of 200–1000 MPa and 450–750 °C

Mineralogy and Petrology - The relative stabilities of phases within the two systems monazite-(Ce) – fluorapatite – allanite-(Ce) and xenotime-(Y) – (Y,HREE)-rich fluorapatite...     

Differing responses of zircon,chevkinite-(Ce), monazite-(Ce) and fergusonite-(Y) to hydrothermal alteration: Evidence from the Keivy alkaline province,Kola Peninsula,Russia

Mineralogy and Petrology - A quartzolite from the Rova occurrence, Keivy alkali granite province, Kola Peninsula, Russia, is used to examine the differing responses of certain rare-metal minerals...     

Simulating storm surge waves for structural vulnerability estimation and flood hazard mapping

Natural Hazards - Wave action during storm surge is a common cause of building damage and therefore a critical consideration when estimating structural vulnerability and mapping flood risk....     

Petroleum source rock evaluation of the Alum and Dictyonema Shales (Upper Cambrian–Lower Ordovician) in the Baltic Basin and Podlasie Depression (eastern Poland)

International Journal of Earth Sciences - We present geochemical characteristics of the Lower Palaeozoic shales deposited in the Baltic Basin and Podlasie Depression. In the study area, this strata...