Modeling a major source of economic resilience to disasters: recapturing lost production

Terrorist attacks and natural disasters have potentially severe economic consequences in terms of property damage and business interruption. However, experience from the September 11 World Trade Center attack and other disasters indicates that the economy has a great deal of resilience. This refers to the ability to dampen the maximum potential economic output (business interruption) loss. One of the most prominent sources of resilience is the ability of businesses to reschedule, or recapture, lost production after the event. Although there have been applications of a fixed parameter recapture factor for each of several aggregated sectors of the economy, there has been little formal analysis of this resilience action. This study offers a theoretic framework for analyzing production rescheduling. It distinguishes the major conditions influencing two aspects that have previously been neglected: (1) the maximum time span over which the rescheduling can take place and (2) the likely decline of the maximum recapture as the business interruption increases. We divide the relevant time path into two periods after recovery. One is a function of a recaptured output path after recovery to the status of normal production. The other is a function for the maximum recaptured production, based on the recaptured output path. The recaptured output path function is assumed to follow a normal distribution function, and hence, total recaptured output follows the cumulative normal distribution function over time after productive capacity is restored. Also, we develop a new cumulative normal distribution function for interruption time duration, which is symmetric with respect to the output axis. This recapture function has unknown parameters. Empirical data on the recaptured amounts following an actual disaster can be used to estimate the parameters of this function using simulation methods.     

Virtual wave gauges based upon stereo imaging for measuring surface wave characteristics

A virtual wave gauge (VWG) technique based on stereo imaging is developed to remotely measure water wave height, period, and direction. VWG minimizes computational costs by directly tracking the elevation of the water surface at selected points of interest using a Eulerian based dynamic searching algorithm. Results show that the VWG technique developed in this paper dramatically improves efficiency by two orders of magnitude compared to the traditional Lagrangian–Eulerian based point cloud method of stereo image processing. VWG is tested against traditional wave wire gauges to within 98% accuracy for significant wave height. Furthermore, the flexibility of the VWG is demonstrated in two field applications. First in an offshore breaking wave case, an array of VWGs is used to efficiently measure wave directionality. Second to investigate the reflection coefficient of a rock-mounted structure interacting with nearshore waves, linear and spatial VWG arrays are designed and implemented based on a priori information of the wave field from a preliminary VWG measurement. Overall, we demonstrate that the flexible and computational efficient VWG technique has the potential to make real-time remote stereo imaging wave measurements a reality.     

Early Carboniferous (Viséan) emplacement of the collisional Kłodzko–Złoty Stok granitoids (Sudetes, SW Poland): constraints from geochemical data and zircon U–Pb ages

Sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe zircon U–Pb dating and geochemical data of igneous rocks from the composite K?odzko–Z?oty Stok (KZS) Granite Pluton, Sudetic Block, indicate that the granitoids represent an Early Carboniferous Viséan phase of Variscan metaluminous, high-K, I-type, syn-collisional granite magmatism within the Saxothuringian Zone of the Central European Variscides. Igneous zircon records hypabyssal magmatism that produced various granitoids and lamprophyre (spessartite) emplaced from ca. 340 to 331 Ma. The KZS granitoids have compositions ranging from granodiorite to monzonite, low A/CNK ratios (<1), and are associated with abundant mafic members. Most of them are alkaline, highly potassic, and moderately evolved. The major and trace element contents of the KZS granitoids suggest geochemical heterogeneity, and the hybrid nature of magmas derived from a range of sources in the middle crust, with a strong input of material from the upper mantle. Mixing of magmas of mantle origin with high-K material from partly melted continental crust was probably a more important factor than fractional crystallization, in controlling the evolution of the magmas. The mean Pb–U ages of the main population of igneous zircon from a quartz monzodiorite (?elazno) and hornblende monzonite (Droszków) are 340.2 ± 2.5 Ma and 339.5 ± 3.1 Ma, respectively. A slightly younger biotite-hornblende granodiorite from Chwalis?aw, 336.7 ± 2.5 Ma, was cut by a spessartite dyke at 333.1 ± 3.1 Ma. This indicates that mafic magmas were immediately intruded into fractured, probably incompletely solidified, granodiorites. The lamprophyric dyke also contains igneous zircon of Neoproterozoic age, 566.3 ± 6.4 Ma, typical of the crust in the Saxothuringian Zone. Tonalite from Ptasznik Hill near Droszków is of similar age to the spessartite, 331.5 ± 2.6 Ma. High REE contents in the tonalite and its igneous zircon indicate advanced differentiation of granitic magma, producing a more leucocratic melt associated with post-magmatic activity including abundant late crosscutting pegmatites and quartz veins, and contact metasomatic mineralization. The KZS granitoids have rather similar petrographic and geochemical characteristics to granitoids from other parts of the Central European Variscides, where a thickened orogenic root caused a substantial rise in crustal temperatures, producing granitoid magmas closely correlated with regional tectonic activity between the Saxothuringian and Brunovistulia Terranes at the NE margin of the Bohemian Massif.     

Tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Upper Prealpine nappe (Switzerland and France): nappe formation by Late Cretaceous-Paleogene accretion

Abstract

The Upper Prealpine nappe of the Swiss and French Prealps consists of a composite stack of various tectonic slivers (Gets, Simme, Dranse and Sarine sub-nappes, from top to bottom). The structural superposition and stratigraphic content of the individual sub-nappes suggests a successive stacking at the South Penninic/Adriatic transition zone during the Late Cretaceous and Early Paleogene. The present paper deals with two aspects. (1) new data obtained from the Complexe de base Series of the Dranse sub-nappe which underlies the Helminthoid Sandstone Formation, and (2) the development of a geodynamic accretionary model for the Upper Prealpine nappe stacking.

The Complexe de base Series reveals a succession of black shales at the base, grading upward into variegated red/green and red shales which were deposited in an abyssal plain environment starved of clastic input. It is overlain by the Helminthoid Sandstone Formation. The combined analysis of planktic and agglutinated benthic foraminifera and comparisons with other Tethyan series suggest an Albian to Campanian age of the Complexe de base succession. Tectonic transport of the abyssal plain segment into a trench environment allowed for the stratigraphic superposition by the Helminthoid sandstone sequence. The present findings combine well with the general scheme of the Upper Prealpine nappe stack and several single results on parts of the nappe stack. We take that opportunity to present a comprehensive model for the tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Upper Prealpine nappe.

We suggest that Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous asymmetric (?) extension at the South Penninic-Adriatic margin created an extensional alloehthon. Later during the mid-Cretaceous, the start of convergence drove the obduction of oceanic crust on the northern margin of the extensional allochthon. The resulting ophiolitic/continental source supplied clasts to the trench basin in front (Manche turbidite series), and the backarc basin (Mocausa Formation) and abyssal plain (Perrières turbidite series) to the South. During Middle to Late Coniacian the main Adriatic margin was thrusted over the obductionrelated mixed belt and established an incipient accretionary prism containing the former trench, backarc and abyssal plain basin fill series. During this stage the Gueyraz (melange) Complex formed, which separates the trench series from the retroarc and abyssal plain formations. On top of the incipient accretionary prism a forearc basin developed hosting the Hundsrück Formation. The frontal abyssal plain formation (Complexe de base) still received few turbiditic intercalations. From Campanian time on, the forearc basin was bypassed and deposition of the Helminthoid Sandstone Formation occurred on the Complexe de base succession. During the Maastrichtian the abyssal plain and trench fill succession (Dranse nappe) was accreted to the incipient wedge, and in front of a newly active buttress, the Gurnigel trench basin was established. Another accretionary event during latest Paleocene/earliest Eocene added parts of that trench series to the base of the wedge (Sarine nappe). During the Late Eocene the accretionary wedge and remaining trench fill series (Gurnigel nappe) were thrusted en-bloc over the Middle Penninic limestone nappes and partly overtook the latter. Continued shortening of the resulting nappe pile and out-of-sequence thrusting accomplished the overriding of the Middle Penninic units over the former South Penninic Gurnigel trench series (inversion of palaeogeographic domains).     

Application of trichloroacetic acid (TCA) to extraction of soft body for the determination of tissue Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn in the prosobranch Hydrobia ulvae (Pennant)

The application of trichloroacetic acid (TCA) as a shell extractant for preparation of soft body parts with reference to tissue metal concentrations (Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn) in shellfish has been evaluated on the example of the mud snail Hydrobia ulvae, a small marine prosobranch densely present in rocky and soft-bottom habitats of the eastern Atlantic. A solution of 0.1 M TCA was tested on individuals treated according to two different protocols: (1) thawed after freezing ("non-dried") and (2) thawed and air-dried to a constant weight ("dried"). Two points were investigated in detail to improve the method: individual soft tissue dry weight and tissue metal concentration following a standard digestion method. In both instances, the results were compared with those from manually dissected snails. Conditions for total shell decalcification of 60 individuals (3-4 mm long) were 5.5 h in 20 ml of 0.1 M TCA.No differences in individual soft tissue weight were observed between the treatments, indicating good efficiency of the TCA extraction with respect to weight of soft body parts. In contrast, tissue metal concentrations varied among treatments. The TCA extraction of the dried animals had a good recovery for Cd, most likely due to the lower solubility of Cd vital cellular components (proteins and mineral concretions) from the dried tissue. Satisfactory recoveries of the tissue concentrations of Cu and Pb were obtained for the non-dried individuals. This might be related to the specific distribution of metals in the organism (namely in the digestive glands and gonads) and their different chemical reactivity with TCA after the tissue was dried. Limited susceptibility of Zn-bearing protein bindings to complexing with TCA also accounts for significantly lower concentrations of Zn in the mud snail's soft tissue that was extracted. The 0.1 M TCA solution is therefore recommended for extraction of the shells of Hydrobia ulvae for tissue determination of Cd, Cu and Pb; however the treatment protocol does affect metal recovery and thus a consistent procedure should be followed.The extracted metals from the soft tissues and shells of the mud snails (on the basis of both metal concentrations and contents) were ranked in order of increasing contribution of soft body parts to the total (shell+tissue): Pb相似文献   

Systematic Methodology for Velocity-dependent Gravity Modelling of Density Crustal Cross-Sections, using an Optimization Procedure

The paper describes a new method of gravity modelling of the density cross section along a DSS profile. We propose a systematic procedure of gravity interpretation using structural information contained both in the velocity distribution of the seismic model and the geometry of its layers. The procedure is based on the optimisation of the density parameters of the model. The values of the parameters are limited by relationships between the seismic velocity and the density (optimisation with inequalities). The formulation of the method allows for discussion of the presence of isostasy and the distribution of compensating masses. The discussion is very important for the considered crust-lithosphere system. The presented calculations are done for one Carpathian profile (CEL01). The analysis of the properties of the fitting procedure provides the characteristic depth of subcrustal compensating density structures, the position of crucial tectonic boundaries along the profiles, locations of the crustal areas having exceptional lithology, the regional density differences of subcrustal matter and the estimation of regional deviations from the isostatic equilibrium.     

Comparison of source parameters estimated in the frequency and time domains for seismic events at the Rudna copper mine,Poland

Source parameters estimated in the frequency domain for 100 selected seismic events from the Rudna copper mine, with moment magnitude ranging from 1.4 to 3.6, were collected to study their scaling relations and to compare them with the parameters estimated in the time domain. The apparent stress and static stress drop, corrected for the limited bandwidth recording, increase slightly in a similar manner with increasing seismic moment. The ratio of apparent stress to static stress drop, a measure of radiation efficiency, is practically constant and its mean value is close to 0.1. For 37 seismic events, with moment magnitude between 1.9 and 3.4, source parameters were estimated in the time domain from relative source time functions, that displayed unilateral rupture propagation, and their rupture velocity could be estimated. It ranges from 0.23 to 0.80 of shear wave velocity and is almost independent of seismic moment. The fault length, estimated from the average source pulse width and rupture velocity, is clearly dependent on seismic moment and is smaller than the source radius estimated from the corner frequency on the average by about 25 percent. There is no correlation between the values of static stress drop estimated in the frequency and time domains, but the time domain stress drop is in general similar to that estimated in the frequency domain. The apparent stress increases with increasing rupture velocity, and the ratio of apparent stress to static stress drop seems also to depend on rupture velocity.     

Sedimentological constraints on hydrometeor-enhanced particle deposition: 1992 Eruptions of Crater Peak, Alaska

Water is a dominant component of volcanic clouds and has fundamental control on very fine particle deposition. Particle size characteristics of distal tephra-fall (100s km from source volcano) have a higher proportion of very fine particles compared to predictions based on single particle settling rates. In this study, sedimentological analyses of fallout from for the 18 August and 16–17 September 1992 eruptions of Crater Peak, Alaska, are combined with satellite observations, and cloud trajectory and microphysics modeling to investigate meteorological influences on particle sedimentation. Total grain size distributions of tephra fallout were reconstructed for both Crater Peak eruptions and indicate a predominance of fine particles < 125 μm. Polymodal analysis of the deposits has identified a particle subpopulation with mode ~ 15–18 μm involved in particle aggregation. Accounting for the magmatic water source only, calculated ice water content of the 3.7 hour old September 1992 Spurr cloud was ~ 4.5 × 10^− 2 g m^− 3 (based on an estimated cloud thickness of ~ 1000 m from trajectory modeling). Hydrometeor formation on particles in the volcanic cloud and subsequent sublimation may induce a cloud base instability that leads to rapid bulk (en masse) sedimentation of very fine particles through a mammatus-like mechanism.     

Automated landslide mapping using spectral analysis and high-resolution topographic data: Puget Sound lowlands, Washington, and Portland Hills, Oregon

Landslide inventory maps are necessary for assessing landslide hazards and addressing the role slope stability plays in landscape evolution over geologic timescales. However, landslide inventory maps produced with traditional methods — aerial photograph interpretation, topographic map analysis, and field inspection — are often subjective and incomplete. The increasing availability of high-resolution topographic data acquired via airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) over broad swaths of terrain invites new, automated landslide mapping procedures. We present two methods of spectral analysis that utilize LiDAR-derived digital elevation models of the Puget Sound lowlands, Washington, and the Tualatin Mountains, Oregon, to quantify and automatically map the topographic signatures of deep-seated landslides. Power spectra produced using the two-dimensional discrete Fourier transform and the two-dimensional continuous wavelet transform identify the characteristic spatial frequencies of deep-seated landslide morphologic features such as hummocky topography, scarps, and displaced blocks of material. Spatial patterns in the amount of spectral power concentrated in these characteristic frequency bands highlight past slope instabilities and allow the delineation of landslide terrain. When calibrated by comparison with detailed, independently compiled landslide inventory maps, our algorithms correctly classify an average of 82% of the terrain in our five study areas. Spectral analysis also allows the creation of dominant wavelength maps, which prove useful in analyzing meter-scale topographic expressions of landslide mechanics, past landslide activity, and landslide-modifying geomorphic processes. These results suggest that our automated landslide mapping methods can create accurate landslide maps and serve as effective, objective, and efficient tools for digital terrain analysis.