Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model

We present results from 20-year “high-resolution” regional climate model simulations of precipitation change for the sub-tropical island of Puerto Rico. The Japanese Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model (NHM) operating at a 2-km grid resolution is nested inside the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) at 10-km grid resolution, which in turn is forced at the lateral boundaries by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). At this resolution, the climate change experiment allows for deep convection in model integrations, which is an important consideration for sub-tropical regions in general, and on islands with steep precipitation gradients in particular that strongly influence local ecological processes and the provision of ecosystem services. Projected precipitation change for this region of the Caribbean is simulated for the mid-twenty-first century (2041–2060) under the RCP8.5 climate-forcing scenario relative to the late twentieth century (1986–2005). The results show that by the mid-twenty-first century, there is an overall rainfall reduction over the island for all seasons compared to the recent climate but with diminished mid-summer drought (MSD) in the northwestern parts of the island. Importantly, extreme rainfall events on sub-daily and daily time scales also become slightly less frequent in the projected mid-twenty-first-century climate over most regions of the island.     

A new approach for evaluating climate change communication

Many scholars study when climate change communication increases citizen engagement. Yet, past work has largely used public opinion-based measures of engagement to evaluate alternative frames. In this paper, we argue for a new approach to evaluation, which is premised on research on the policy-making process showing that space on the political agenda and, ultimately, policy change are more likely to arise in response to changes in both public opinion and collective political action. Thus, we argue that alternative frames should be evaluated based on their consequences for both. This is especially critical given that frames can have divergent effects on attitudes and behavior. Using a combination of field and survey experiments, we apply our approach to evaluate two frames related to climate change risks. We find that they heighten people’s concern about climate change yet decrease their rate of political action to express that concern. Our results suggest caution with regard to these frames in particular and that, more generally, frames that might seem advantageous when examining public opinion may not be when political behavior is analyzed.

     

Sea water surface energy balance in the Arctic fjord (Hornsund,SW Spitsbergen) in May–November 2014

Maize is grown by millions of smallholder farmers in South Asia (SA) under diverse environments. The crop is grown in different seasons in a year with varying exposure to weather extremes, including high temperatures at critical growth stages which are expected to increase with climate change. This study assesses the impact of current and future heat stress on maize and the benefit of heat-tolerant varieties in SA. Annual mean maximum temperatures may increase by 1.4–1.8 °C in 2030 and 2.1–2.6 °C in 2050, with large monthly, seasonal, and spatial variations across SA. The extent of heat stressed areas in SA could increase by up to 12 % in 2030 and 21 % in 2050 relative to the baseline. The impact of heat stress and the benefit from heat-tolerant varieties vary with the level of temperature increase and planting season. At a regional scale, climate change would reduce rainfed maize yield by an average of 3.3–6.4 % in 2030 and 5.2–12.2 % in 2050 and irrigated yield by 3–8 % in 2030 and 5–14 % in 2050 if current varieties were grown under the future climate. Under projected climate, heat-tolerant varieties could minimize yield loss (relative to current maize varieties) by up to 36 and 93 % in 2030 and 33 and 86 % in 2050 under rainfed and irrigated conditions, respectively. Heat-tolerant maize varieties, therefore, have the potential to shield maize farmers from severe yield loss due to heat stress and help them adapt to climate change impacts.     

Sensing underground coal gasification by ground penetrating radar

The paper describes the results of research on the applicability of the ground penetrating radar (GPR) method for remote sensing and monitoring of the underground coal gasification (UCG) processes. The gasification of coal in a bed entails various technological problems and poses risks to the environment. Therefore, in parallel with research on coal gasification technologies, it is necessary to develop techniques for remote sensing of the process environment. One such technique may be the radar method, which allows imaging of regions of mass loss (voids, fissures) in coal during and after carrying out a gasification process in the bed. The paper describes two research experiments. The first one was carried out on a large-scale model constructed on the surface. It simulated a coal seam in natural geological conditions. A second experiment was performed in a shallow coal deposit maintained in a disused mine and kept accessible for research purposes. Tests performed in the laboratory and in situ conditions showed that the method provides valuable data for assessing and monitoring gasification surfaces in the UCG processes. The advantage of the GPR method is its high resolution and the possibility of determining the spatial shape of various zones and forms created in the coal by the gasification process.     

Application of electrical and electromagnetic methods to study sedimentary covers in high mountain areas

The results of geophysical studies conducted with selected electrical and electromagnetic methods in the Kondratowa Valley in the Tatra Mountains (the Carpathian Mountains, Poland) are presented in the article. The surveys were performed with the following methods: electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), georadar (GPR) and conductivity meter (CM). The objective of the noninvasive geophysical measurements was to determine the thickness of the Quaternary postglacial sediments that fill the bottom of the valley and to designate the accumulation of boulders deposited on Quaternary sediments. The results of ERT surveys conducted along the axis of the valley allowed to determine the changeability of the thickness of the postglacial sediments and allowed to designate a few areas of occurrence of boulders. The ERT, GPR and CM surveys conducted across the valley allowed to designate with high accuracy the thickness of the accumulation of boulders sliding down the valley bottom from the couloirs surrounding the valley.     

Piping dynamics in mid‐altitude mountains under a temperate climate: Bieszczady Mountains,eastern Carpathians

Piping has been recognized as an important geomorphic, soil erosion and hydrologic process. It seems that it is far more widespread than it has often been supposed. However, our knowledge about piping dynamics and its quantification currently relies on a limited number of data for mainly loess‐derived areas and marl badlands. Therefore, this research aimed to recognize piping dynamics in mid‐altitude mountains under a temperate climate, where piping occurs in Cambisols, not previously considered as piping‐prone soils. It has been expressed by the estimation of erosion rates due to piping and elongation of pipes in the Bere?nica Wy?na catchment in the Bieszczady Mountains, eastern Carpathians (305 ha, 188 collapsed pipes). The research was based on the monitoring of selected piping systems (1971–1974, 2013–2016). Changes in soil loss vary significantly between different years (up to 27.36 t ha^?1 yr^?1), as well as between the mean short‐term erosion rate (up to 13.10 t ha^?1 yr^?1), and the long‐term (45 years) mean of 1.34 t ha^?1 yr^?1. The elongation of pipes also differs, from no changes to 36 m during one year. The mean total soil loss is 48.8 t ha^?1 in plots, whereas in the whole studied catchment it is 2.0 t ha^?1. Hence, piping is both spatially and temporally dependent. The magnitude of piping in the study area is at least three orders of magnitude higher than surface erosion rates (i.e. sheet and rill erosion) under similar land use (grasslands), and it is comparable to the magnitude of surface soil erosion on arable lands. It means that piping constitutes a significant environmental problem and, wherever it occurs, it is an important, or even the main, sediment source. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Are modern metaheuristics successful in calibrating simple conceptual rainfall–runoff models?

In recent years sampling approaches have been used more widely than optimization algorithms to find parameters of conceptual rainfall–runoff models, but the difficulty of calibration of such models remains in dispute. The problem of finding a set of optimal parameters for conceptual rainfall–runoff models is interpreted differently in various studies, ranging from simple to relatively complex and difficult. In many papers, it is claimed that novel calibration approaches, so-called metaheuristics, outperform the older ones when applied to this task, but contradictory opinions are also plentiful. The present study aims at calibration of two simple lumped conceptual hydrological models, HBV and GR4J, by means of a large number of metaheuristic algorithms. The tests are performed on four catchments located in regions with relatively similar climatic conditions, but on different continents. The comparison shows that, although parameters found may somehow differ, the performance criteria achieved with simple lumped models calibrated by various metaheuristics are very similar and differences are insignificant from the hydrological point of view. However, occasionally some algorithms find slightly better solutions than those found by the vast majority of methods. This means that the problem of calibration of simple lumped HBV or GR4J models may be deceptive from the optimization perspective, as the vast majority of algorithms that follow a common evolutionary principle of survival of the fittest lead to sub-optimal solutions.     

Consistency of precipitation products over the Arabian Peninsula and interactions with soil moisture and water storage

The regional-scale consistency between four precipitation products from the GPCC, TRMM, WM, and CMORPH datasets over the Arabian Peninsula was assessed. Their macroscale relationships were inter-compared with soil moisture and total water storage (TWS) estimates from AMSR-E and GRACE. The consistency analysis was studied with multivariate statistical hypothesis testing and Pearson correlation metrics for the period from January 2000 to December 2010. The products and GRACE estimates were assessed over a representative sub-domain (United Arab Emirates) with available in situ well observations. Next, geographically temporally weighted regression (GTWR) was employed to examine the interdependencies among the peninsula’s hydrological components. The results showed GPCC-TRMM recording the highest correlation (0.85) with insignificant mean differences over more than 90% of the peninsula. The highest GTWR predictive performance of TWS (R² = 0.84) was achieved with TRMM forcing, which indicates its potential to monitor changes in TWS over the arid peninsular region.     

Use of incipient motion data for backward erosion piping models

Backward erosion piping involves the gradual removal of granular material under the action of water flow from the foundation of a dam or levee, whereby shallow pipes are formed that grow in the direction opposite to the flow. This pipe-forming process can ultimately lead to failure of a water-retaining structure and is considered one of the most important failure mechanisms for dikes and levees in the Netherlands and the United States. Modeling of this mechanism requires the assessment of hydraulic conditions in the pipe, which are controlled by the particle equilibrium at the pipe wall. Since the pipe's dimensions are controlled by the inflow to the pipe from the porous medium, the flow through the pipe is thought to be laminar for fine- to medium-grained sands. The literature provides data for incipient motion in laminar flow, which is reviewed here and complemented with data from backward erosion experiments. The experiments illustrate the applicability of the laminar incipient motion data to determine the erosion pipe dimensions and corresponding pipe hydraulics for fine- to medium-grained sands, for the purpose of backward erosion piping modeling.