Micromechanical approach to unsaturated water flow in structured geomaterials by two-scale computations

This article presents a micromechanical approach to the problem of unsaturated water flow in heterogeneous porous media in transient conditions. The numerical formulation is based on the two-scale model obtained previously by periodic homogenization. It allows for a coupled solution of the non-linear flow equations at macroscopic and microscopic scales and takes into account the macroscopic anisotropy of the medium and the local non-equilibrium of the capillary pressure. The model was applied to simulate two-dimensional water infiltration at constant flux into an initially dry medium containing inclusions of square and rectangular shapes. The numerical results showed the influence of the inclusion–matrix conductivity ratio and the local geometry on the macroscopic behavior. The influence of the conductivity ratio manifested itself by the acceleration or retardation of the onset of the macroscopic water flux at the outlet, while the local geometry (anisotropy) significantly affected the macroscopic spatial distribution of the water flux. Such type of approach can be extended to simulate coupled phenomena (for example hydro-mechanical problems) with evolving local geometry.     

The Seasonal Prediction of the Exceptional Yangtze River Rainfall in Summer 2020

During June and July of 2020, the Yangtze River basin suffered from extreme mei-yu rainfall and catastrophic flooding. This study explores the seasonal predictability and associated dynamical causes for this extreme Yangtze River rainfall event, based on forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 operational forecast system. The forecasts successfully predicted above-average rainfall over the Yangtze River basin, which arose from the successful reproduction of the anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). Our results indicate that both the Indian Ocean warm sea surface temperature (SST) and local WNP SST gradient were responsible for the westward extension of the WNPSH, and the forecasts captured these tropical signals well. We explore extratropical drivers but find a large model spread among the forecast members regarding the meridional displacements of the East Asian mid-latitude westerly jet (EAJ). The forecast members with an evident southward displacement of the EAJ favored more extreme Yangtze River rainfall. However, the forecast Yangtze River rainfall anomaly was weaker compared to that was observed and no member showed such strong rainfall. In observations, the EAJ displayed an evident acceleration in summer 2020, which could lead to a significant wind convergence in the lower troposphere around the Yangtze River basin, and favor more mei-yu rainfall. The model forecast failed to satisfactorily reproduce these processes. This difference implies that the observed enhancement of the EAJ intensity gave a large boost to the Yangtze River rainfall, hindering a better forecast of the intensity of the event and disaster mitigation.     

Sediment provenance of the Wilderness barrier dunes,southern Cape coast,South Africa

Trace‐element geochemistry has been used to discern the provenance of sediments derived from geologically distinct sources found in a range of depositional settings. This study investigates whether this approach can also identify provenance signatures in sediments derived from clastic sedimentary rocks of similar origins, within a complex coastal transport environment. The potential local sediment sources of a coastal barrier dune in South Africa were analysed to assess their relationships with the barrier and whether these have varied with time. Results indicate that the oldest part of the barrier, partly formed during MIS 6 when sea levels were lower than at present, has a closer affinity to fluvial sediment provided by local rivers than either younger samples from the barrier′s seaward flank or the Holocene dunes atop its crest, both formed during sea‐level highstands. Constraints on the timing of barrier formation provided by OSL dating proved helpful in discriminating between provenance and weathering signals. Terra Nova, 00, 000–000, 2010     

Characterising the vertical separation of shale-gas source rocks and aquifers across England and Wales (UK)

Shale gas is considered by many to have the potential to provide the UK with greater energy security, economic growth and jobs. However, development of a shale gas industry is highly contentious due to environmental concerns including the risk of groundwater pollution. Evidence suggests that the vertical separation between exploited shale units and aquifers is an important factor in the risk to groundwater from shale gas exploitation. A methodology is presented to assess the vertical separation between different pairs of aquifers and shales that are present across England and Wales. The application of the method is then demonstrated for two of these pairs—the Cretaceous Chalk Group aquifer and the Upper Jurassic Kimmeridge Clay Formation, and the Triassic sandstone aquifer and the Carboniferous Bowland Shale Formation. Challenges in defining what might be considered criteria for ‘safe separation’ between a shale gas formation and an overlying aquifer are discussed, in particular with respect to uncertainties in geological properties, aquifer extents and determination of socially acceptable risk levels. Modelled vertical separations suggest that the risk of aquifer contamination from shale exploration will vary greatly between shale–aquifer pairs and between regions and this will need to be considered carefully as part of the risk assessment and management for any shale gas development.     

Pits,rifts and slumps: the summit structure of Piton de la Fournaise

A clear model of structures and associated stress fields of a volcano can provide a framework in which to study and monitor activity. We propose a volcano-tectonic model for the dynamics of the summit of Piton de la Fournaise (La Reunion Island, Indian Ocean). The summit contains two main pit crater structures (Dolomieu and Bory), two active rift zones, and a slumping eastern sector, all of which contribute to the actual fracture system. Dolomieu has developed over 100 years by sudden large collapse events and subsequent smaller drops that include terrace formation. Small intra-pit collapse scars and eruptive fissures are located along the southern floor of Dolomieu. The western pit wall of Dolomieu has a superficial inward dipping normal fault boundary connected to a deeper ring fault system. Outside Dolomieu, an oval extension zone containing sub-parallel pit-related fractures extends to a maximum distance of 225 m from the pit. At the summit the main trend for eruptive fissures is N80°, normal to the north–south rift zone. The terraced structure of Dolomieu has been reproduced by analogue models with a roof to width ratio of approximately 1, suggesting an original magma chamber depth of about 1 km. Such a chamber may continue to act as a storage location today. The east flank has a convex–concave profile and is bounded by strike-slip fractures that define a gravity slump. This zone is bound to the north by strike-slip fractures that may delineate a shear zone. The southern reciprocal shear zone is probably marked by an alignment of large scoria cones and is hidden by recent aa lavas. The slump head intersects Dolomieu pit and may slide on a hydrothermally altered layer known to be located at a depth of around 300 m. Our model has the summit activity controlled by the pit crater collapse structure, not the rifts. The rifts become important on the mid-flanks of the cone, away from pit-related fractures. On the east flank the superficial structures are controlled by the slump. We suggest that during pit subsidence intra-pit eruptions may occur. During tumescence, however, the pit system may become blocked and a flank eruption is more likely. Intrusions along the rift may cause deformation that subsequently increases the slump’s potential to deform. Conversely, slumping may influence the east flank stress distribution and locally control intrusion direction. These predictions can be tested with monitoring data to validate the model and, eventually, improve monitoring.     

Understanding the relative impacts of natural processes and human activities on the hydrology of the Central Rift Valley lakes,East Africa

Significant changes have been observed in the hydrology of Central Rift Valley (CRV) lakes in Ethiopia, East Africa as a result of both natural processes and human activities during the past three decades. This study applied an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modelling, and statistical analysis) to understand the relative effects of natural processes and human activities over a sparsely gauged CRV basin. Lake storage estimates were calculated from a hydrologic model constructed without inputs from human impacts such as water abstraction and compared with satellite‐based (observed) lake storage measurements to characterize the magnitude of human‐induced impacts. A non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to detect the presence of climatic trends (e.g. a decreasing or increasing trends in precipitation), while the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) analysis was used to assess the long‐term, inter‐annual climate variability within the basin. Results indicate human activities (e.g. abstraction) significantly contributed to the changes in the hydrology of the lakes, while no statistically significant climatic trend was seen in the basin, however inter‐annual natural climate variability, extreme dryness, and prolonged drought has negatively affected the lakes. The relative contributions of natural and human‐induced impacts on the lakes were quantified and evaluated by comparing hydrographs of the CRV lakes. Lake Abiyata has lost ~6.5 m in total lake height between 1985 and 2006, 70% (~4.5 m) of the loss has been attributed to human‐induced causes, whereas the remaining 30% is related to natural climate variability. The relative impact analysis utilized in this study could potentially be used to better plan and create effective water‐management practices in the basin and demonstrates the utility of this integrated methodology for similar studies assessing the relative natural and human‐induced impacts on lakes in data sparse areas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reconstructing epilimnetic total phosphorus using diatoms: statistical and ecological constraints

Diatoms respond rapidly to eutrophication and diatom-based models for inferring total phosphorus (TP) have found wide application in palaeolimnology, especially in tracking trajectories of past and recent nutrient enrichment and in establishing pre-disturbance targets for restoration. Using new analysis of existing training sets and sediment-cores we examine the statistical and ecological constraints of diatom-inferred TP (DI-TP) models. Although the models show an apparently strong relationship between measured and inferred TP in the training sets, even under cross-validation, the models display three fundamental weaknesses, namely (1) the relationship between TP and diatom relative abundance is heavily confounded with secondary variables such as alkalinity and lake depth, (2) the models contain many taxa that are not significantly related to TP, and (3) comparison between different models shows poor or no spatial replicability. At some sites the sediment-core diatom assemblage change tracks the TP gradient in the training sets and DI-TP reconstructions are consistent with monitored TP data and known catchment histories for the recent past. At others diatom species turnover is apparently related to variables other than TP, and DI-TP fails to even reproduce plausible trends. Pre-disturbance DI-TP values are also questionable at most sites. We argue that these problems pervade many DI-TP models, particularly those where violations of the basic assumptions of the transfer function approach are ignored.     

Magnetic anomalies across Campbell Plateau,New Zealand

Magnetic measurements over the Campbell Plateau, New Zealand, show the existence of a linear positive anomaly belt which extends for 900 km along an approximately east-west trend. This anomaly belt is considered to be a continuation of the Stokes Magnetic Anomaly occurring through New Zealand and associated with rocks of the New Zealand Geosyncline. If this is so, a transcurrent fault with a dextral displacement of about 330 km and aligned in a northeast-southwest direction must occur between the eastern end of the Stokes Magnetic Anomaly and the western end of the anomaly belt across Campbell Plateau.     

Hydrocarbon lakes on Titan

The Huygens Probe detected dendritic drainage-like features, methane clouds and a high surface relative humidity (∼50%) on Titan in the vicinity of its landing site [Tomasko, M.G., and 39 colleagues, 2005. Nature 438, 765-778; Niemann, H.B., and 17 colleagues, 2005. Nature 438, 779-784], suggesting sources of methane that replenish this gas against photo- and charged-particle chemical loss on short (10-100) million year timescales [Atreya, S.K., Adams, E.Y., Niemann, H.B., Demick-Montelara, J.E., Owen, T.C., Fulchignoni, M., Ferri, F., Wilson, E.H., 2006. Planet. Space Sci. In press]. On the other hand, Cassini Orbiter remote sensing shows dry and even desert-like landscapes with dunes [Lorenz, R.D., and 39 colleagues, 2006a. Science 312, 724-727], some areas worked by fluvial erosion, but no large-scale bodies of liquid [Elachi, C., and 34 colleagues, 2005. Science 308, 970-974]. Either the atmospheric methane relative humidity is declining in a steady fashion over time, or the sources that maintain the relative humidity are geographically restricted, small, or hidden within the crust itself. In this paper we explore the hypothesis that the present-day methane relative humidity is maintained entirely by lakes that cover a small part of the surface area of Titan. We calculate the required minimum surface area coverage of such lakes, assess the stabilizing influence of ethane, and the implications for moist convection in the atmosphere. We show that, under Titan's surface conditions, methane evaporates rapidly enough that shorelines of any existing lakes could potentially migrate by several hundred m to tens of km per year, rates that could be detected by the Cassini orbiter. We furthermore show that the high relative humidity of methane in Titan's lower atmosphere could be maintained by evaporation from lakes covering only 0.002-0.02 of the whole surface.