An application of Markov Chain Model for wet and dry spell probabilities at Juba in Southern Sudan

The theoretical probabilities of wet and dry spells derived from the Markov Chain Model were found to fit very closely the observed probabilities of various sequence lengths at Juba, S Sudan. Monthly variation in the probability values does not seem to follow a secular trend. Anomogram relating observed sequence length frequency of wet and dry spells versus those computed by Markov model is presented.     

U-Pb (zircon) ages for the gneissic terrane west of the Nile,southern Egypt

The first U-Pb zircon ages are reported for the gneissic bedrock inliers previously interpreted as part of the Nile Craton. The inliers crop out in the Egyptian Western Desert, east of the Uweinat area and west of the Eastern Desert. Multi- and single-grain zircon analyses of granitoid gneiss and migmatite from Gebel Um Shagir, Aswan, and another locality approximately 160 km south-west of Aswan, yield simple discordia with near modern day Pb loss trajectories, and the following Neoproterozoic crystallization ages: 626+4/–3, 634 ± 4 and 741 ± 3 Ma. In contrast, multi- and single-grain U-Pb analyses (zircon and sphene) from an anorthositic gabbro at Gebel Kamil (22°46N 26°21E) and an anorthosite at Gebel El Asr (22°46N 31°10E) yield Archean and Paleoproterozoic emplacement ages. The former yield a crystallization age of > 2.67 Ga and a metamorphic age of 2.0 Ga; the latter a metamorphic age of 0.69 Ga and an inheritance age of 1.9–2.1 Ga. Because high grade gneiss and migmatite of Neoproterozoic, Paleoproterozoic and Archean age crop out west of the Nile, pre-Neoproterozoic crust should no longer be identified by its metamorphic grade. By contrast, mapping the anorthosite and related rocks might provide first-order estimates for the extension of pre-Neoproterozoic crust in north-east Africa. It is suggested that Archean and Paleoproterozoic crust of the Uweinat and Congo Craton are contiguous because these U-Pb (zircon) data show no evidence for a Neoproterozoic thermal overprint in the Gebel Kamil area and there is no pronounced Neoproterozoic magmatic activity south of the Uweinat inlier and north of the Congo Craton.     

Modelling the impact of a time-varying wave angle on the nonlinear evolution of sand bars in the surf zone

Sandy beaches are often characterized by the presence of sand bars, whose characteristics (growth, migration speed, etc.) strongly depend on offshore wave conditions, such as wave height and angle of wave incidence. This study addresses the impact of a sinusoidally time-varying wave angle of incidence with different time-means on the saturation height, migration speed and longshore spacing of sand bars. Model results show that shore-transverse sand bars (so-called TBR bars) eventually develop under a time-varying wave angle. Depending on the time-mean, amplitude and period of the varying angle of wave incidence, the mean heights and mean migration speeds of the bars can be larger or smaller than their corresponding values in the case of time-invariant angles. Bars might not even form when the wave angle varies around a too large oblique mean value, whereas bars exist in the case of a time-invariant wave angle. The oscillations in both bar height and migration speed are large if the period of the time-varying wave angle is close to the adjustment timescale of the system and if large differences in the local growth and migration rates of the bars occur during one oscillation period. The oscillations in bar height are a combination of harmonics with the principal period and half the period of the time-varying wave angle, whereas those of migration speed contain only the principal period. Bars that are subject to time-varying wave angles have larger longshore crest-to-crest spacings than those which form under fixed wave angles. Physical explanations for these findings are given. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Radiation transfer for linearly anisotropic phase functions

Radiative transfer equation in a plane-parallel medium with isotropic boundary conditions for linearly anisotropic scattering phase function is considered. Two coupled integral equations for total density of radiation and total radiation flux are obtained. The Galerkin method is used to solve these equations. Numerical results for the radiative fluxes at the boundaries show that the Galerkin method yields accurate results compared well with other exact methods.     

A climatological analysis of Saharan cyclones

In this study, the climatology of Saharan cyclones is presented in order to understand the Saharan climate, its variability and its changes. This climatology includes an analysis of seasonal and interannual variations, the identification and classification of cyclone tracks, and a presentation of their chief characteristics. The data used are drawn from the 1980–2009, 2.5° × 2.5°, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (NNRP I) dataset. It is found that cyclone numbers increase in September–October–November (SON) at 4.9 cyclones per decade, while they decrease in June–July–August at 12.3 cyclones per decade. The identification algorithm constructed 562 tracks, which are categorized into 12 distinct clusters. Around 75 % of the Saharan cyclones originate south of the Atlas Mountains. The percentage of tracks that move over the Sahara is around 48 %. The eastern Mediterranean receives 27 % of the Saharan tracks, while the western basin receives only 17 and 8 % of all the Saharan cyclones decay over the Arabian Peninsula. The maximum cyclonic activity occurs in April. There is a general decrease in the number of tracks in all categories between 1993 and 2009, compared with the period between 1980 and 1992. About 72 % of the Saharan cyclones do not live more than 3 days, and about 80 % of the cyclones in the tracks never reach central pressures 1,000 hPa during their lifetimes. The maximum deepening in the tracks occurs over the western Mediterranean and over northern Algeria.     

Integrated remote sensing data utilization for investigating structural and tectonic history of the Ghadames Basin,Libya

This study was initiated to constrain the geological structure of the Ghadames Basin in northwest Libya. Detailed analysis was based on digital integration of surface data, including SRTM DEM, ETM+ and geologic maps with subsurface data, including well logs and potential field data. Integrated analysis of remotely sensed data of the SRTM and ETM+ were utilized to identify geologic lineaments in the area. Ground-based verification of the remote sensing data was achieved with field work. Interpretation and analysis of the lineaments indicate that the Ghadames Basin is controlled by four main fault systems that trend WNW, NNW, NW and ENE. Well logs and potential field data were used to delineate a detailed picture of the subsurface structure. The potential field data reveal two NE and NNE trending sedimentary basins. The depth of the basement inside the main basin ranges from 2 to 6 km. A two-dimensional (2-D) schematic model shows that the basin gradually deepens towards the southwest. The applied data integration gave new insight into the tectonic and structure patterns of the Ghadames Basin and the adjacent areas of northwest Libya.     

Ground motion spatial variability effects on seismic response control of cable-stayed bridges

The spatial variability of input ground motion at supporting foundations plays a key role in the structural response of cable-stayed bridges (CSBs); therefore, spatial variation effects should be included in the analysis and design of effective vibration control systems. The control of CSBs represents a challenging and unique problem, with many complexities in modeling, control design and implementation, since the control system should be designed not only to mitigate the dynamic component of the structural response but also to counteract the effects of the pseudo-static component of the response. The spatial variability effects on the feasibility and efficiency of seismic control systems for the vibration control of CSBs are investigated in this paper. The assumption of uniform earthquake motion along the entire bridge may result in quantitative and qualitative differences in seismic response as compared with those produced by uniform motion at all supports. A systematic comparison of passive and active system performance in reducing the structural responses is performed, focusing on the effect of the spatially varying earthquake ground motion on the seismic response of a benchmark CSB model with different control strategies, and demonstrates the importance of accounting for the spatial variability of excitations.     

Recharge and contamination sources of shallow and deep groundwater of pleistocene aquifer in El-Sadat industrial city: isotope and hydrochemical approaches

Hydrochemical and isotopic researches were conducted in El-Sadat City groundwater system to identify groundwater alteration, recharge, residence time and extent of pollution. The groundwater salinity gradually increases as the groundwater moves from northeastern to southwestern parts of the city. Groundwater generally shows mineralization decreasing with depth, indicating that the possibility of recent water penetration far below the surface is limited. Shallow groundwater has an elevated level of nitrate, which is attributed to anthropogenic sources due to intensive agricultural activity. The limit of high nitrate water may mark the maximum penetration of groundwater from the surface, which is found in depths <100 m. The northeastern and southwestern industrial areas are highly contaminated by some heavy metals, which may originate from some local industrial effluents. The sewage oxidation ponds seem to show no effect on groundwater; hence, these ponds are not a point source for these heavy metals. Dissolved ions depict five different hydrochemical facies, and stable isotopes define the recharge mechanisms, the origin of groundwater and the hydraulic confinement of deep groundwater. The deep groundwater is untritiated and has long residence times (in the order of thousands of years). Three different hydrochemical groups have been recognized and mapped in El-Sadat City, based on the chemical and isotopic information of the groundwater. These groups have different levels of contamination. The deep groundwater samples are significantly less impacted by surface activities and it appears that these important water resources have very low recharge rates and would, therefore, be severely impacted by overabstraction. The extensive exploitation of groundwater for drinking water supply would shortly be reflected by a gradual decline of the groundwater table in El-Sadat City. Amelioration of groundwater quality requires further management strategies and efforts in the forthcoming years.     

Strong ground motion attenuation in Aswan area, Egypt

Recent and paleo seismicity indicate that moderate seismic activity is relatively large for Aswan area. This is a warning on the possibility of occurrence of earthquakes in the future too. No strong motion records are available in Aswan area for engineers to rely upon. Consequently, the seismological modeling is an alternative approach till sufficient instrumental records around Aswan become available. In the present study, we have developed new ground motion attenuation relationship for events spanning 4.0?≤? M _w?≤?7.0 and distance to the surface projection of the fault up to 100 km for Aswan based on a statistically simulated seismological model. We generated suites of ground motion time histories using stochastic technique. The ground motion attenuation relation describes the dependence of the strength of the ground motions on the earthquake magnitude and distance from the earthquake. The proposed equation for peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the bed rock is in the form of: $ {\mathbf{log}}{\text{ }}\left( {{\mathbf{PGA}}/{\mathbf{gal}}} \right){\text{ }} = {\mathbf{1}}.{\mathbf{24}} + {\mathbf{0}}.{\mathbf{358}}{M_{\mathbf{w}}} - {\text{ }}{\mathbf{log}}\left( {\mathbf{R}} \right){\text{ }}-{\text{ }}{\mathbf{0}}.{\mathbf{008}}{\text{ }}{\mathbf{R}}{\text{ }} + {\text{ }}{\mathbf{0}}.{\mathbf{22}}{\text{ }}{\mathbf{P}} $ . Where PGA is the peak ground acceleration in gal (cm/s²); M_w, its moment magnitude; R is the closest distance between the rupture projection and the site of interest; and the factor P is a dummy variable. It is observed that attenuation of strong motion in Aswan is correlated with those used before in Egypt.