Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs)

Abstract

The Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are a group of 49 of the world's poorest countries. They have contributed least to the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) but they are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This is due to their location in some of the most vulnerable regions of the world and their low capacities to adapt to these changes. Adaptation to climate change has become an important policy priority in the international negotiations on climate change in recent years. However, it has yet to become a major policy issue within developing countries, especially the LDCs. This article focuses on two LDCs, namely Bangladesh and Mali, where progress has been made regarding identifying potential adaptation options. For example, Bangladesh already has effective disaster response systems, and strategies to deal with reduced freshwater availability, and Mali has a well-developed programme for providing agro-hydro-meteorological assistance to communities in times of drought. However, much remains to be done in terms of mainstreaming adaptation to climate change within the national policymaking processes of these countries. Policymakers need targeting and, to facilitate this, scientific research must be translated into appropriate language and timescales.     

The origin of plagioclase phenocrysts in basalts from continental monogenetic volcanoes of the Kaikohe-Bay of Islands field,New Zealand: implications for magmatic assembly and ascent

Late Quaternary, porphyritic basalts erupted in the Kaikohe-Bay of Islands area, New Zealand, provide an opportunity to explore the crystallization and ascent history of small volume magmas in an intra-continental monogenetic volcano field. The plagioclase phenocrysts represent a diverse crystal cargo. Most of the crystals have a rim growth that is compositionally similar to groundmass plagioclase (~?An₆₅) and is in equilibrium with the host basalt rock. The rims surround a resorbed core that is either less calcic (~?An_20–45) or more calcic (>?An₇₀), having crystallized in more differentiated or more primitive melts, respectively. The relic cores, particularly those that are less calcic (<?~?An₄₅), have ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios that are either mantle-like (~?0.7030) or crustal-like (~?0.7040 to 0.7060), indicating some are antecrysts formed in melts fractionated from plutonic basaltic forerunners, while others are true xenocrysts from greywacke basement and/or Miocene arc volcanics. It is envisaged that intrusive basaltic forerunners produced a zone where various degrees of crustal assimilation and fractional crystallization occurred. The erupted basalts represent mafic recharge of this system, as indicated by the final crystal rim growths around the entrained antecrystic and xenocrystic cargo. The recharge also entrained cognate gabbros that occur as inclusions, and produced mingled groundmasses. Multi-stage magmatic ascent and interaction is indicated, and is consistent with the presence of a partial melt body in the lower crust detected by geophysical methods. This crystallization history contrasts with traditional concepts of low-flux basaltic systems where rapid ascent from the mantle is inferred. From a hazards perspective, the magmatic system inferred here increases the likelihood of detecting eruption precursor phenomena such as seismicity, degassing and surface deformation.     

The “susceptibility factor” in the atmospheric response to periodic forcing

Evidence is presented of a periodic component in the inter-annual variability of precipitation and pressure data for India during June, the month of the onset of the Indian southwest monsoon. Two frequencies that explain a statistically significant percent of the variance in these data sets are the same as the two that explain most of the variance of the average monthly lunar tidal potential for June. Not only are the frequencies the same but they are also in phase which strongly suggests that lunar tides in the atmosphere do, in fact, produce an element of climatic variability. The amplitude of the atmospheric response to this periodic forcing was not constant in time but was found to be related to the long term change in northern hemispheric surface temperature. This susceptibility of the atmosphere to an external forcing results in a nonlinear relationship between forcing and response. As a result, nonlinear regression had to be used in order to adequately define the magnitude of the response at a given frequency. The ramifications of this nonlinear response are discussed. The nonlinear interaction of the northern hemisphere temperature and the 18.6 year lunar nodal cycle results in a modulation of the frequency which appears in a linear spectral analysis near 22 years. Thus, the 22-year cycle often found in meteorological data sets may instead be the result of the modulated nodal cycle.     

A note on the performance of climatic forecasts for Asia based on the periodic portion of the data: 1986–1987

Between 1973 and 1986 a group at the University of Wisconsin worked on the use of the periodic portion of climatic time series with the aim of exploring the potential for year-or-more in advance forecasting. This paper reports on the real time verification of the last sets of forecasts made by the group. From spectra of temperature and cube-rooted precipitation the dominant frequencies were chosen. These were usually related to tidal frequencies. A Fourier series of these dominant terms was then fitted to the dependent data set and future values calculated. These were analyzed for forecast skill, and the skillful Fourier series retained. Real time forecasts were then made. Verification shows a low probability that the forecast skills were obtained by chance. It is suggested that the periodic term might be a useful addition to more standard approaches to long range forecasting.     

Geochemistry of Karroo dolerite sills in the Calvinia district,Western Cape Province,South Africa

Two Karroo dolerite sills display chemical and mineralogical variation compatible with cumulus enrichment. The Blaauwkrans sill is an olivine tholeiite and contains a central zone slightly enriched in olivine, plagioclase and clinopyroxene. The thicker Hangnest sill is a quartz tholeiite and shows evidence of crystal settling and has a lower zone enriched in cumulus orthopyroxene and plagioclase.The two sills differ quite markedly in their trace element compositions, with the Hangnest magma enriched by a factor of two in LIL elements (Rb, Ba, Nb, Zr, Y) relative to the Blaauwkrans magma. The Hangnest magma contained extremely low Ni contents (3–5 ppm), whereas the Blaauwkrans magma contained higher but more normal Ni (100–110ppm). Such contrasting trace element compositions preclude any simple genetic relationship between the two Karroo magmas but they may be related either through a common parent or are derivatives from separate parental magmas.South African Contribution No. 24 to the International Geodynamics Project     

Salinity and Temperature Effects on Element Incorporation of Gulf Killifish <Emphasis Type="Italic">Fundulus grandis</Emphasis> Otoliths

Many applications of otolith chemistry use the ratios of strontium (Sr) and barium (Ba) to calcium (Ca) as indicators of salinity exposure, because typically, as salinity increases, Sr concentration increases and Ba concentration decreases. However, these relationships are nonlinear, can be confounded by temperature, and investigations of salinity and temperature effects on otolith chemistry produce varied results. To determine the relationships of temperature and salinity on Sr:Ca and Ba:Ca in otoliths, we used free ranging Gulf Killifish (Fundulus grandis) in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This species is ideal because it is euryhaline and exhibits limited movements. Otolith edge Sr:Ca and Ba:Ca ratios were related to the previous 30-day mean salinity and temperature experienced by fish. The best model to describe otolith Sr:Ca was one that included a positive asymptotic relationship for both salinity and temperature. However, the salinity asymptotic maximum was reached at 10 psu and changes in otolith Sr:Ca above 10 psu were indicative of temperature changes. Otolith Ba:Ca exhibited an exponential decreasing relationship with salinity, and an exponential increasing relationship with temperature, and these two models combined best explained otolith Ba:Ca. Above 10 psu, the modeled Ba:Ca ratio continued to decrease demonstrating that this ratio may be indicative of salinity changes beyond this value. Therefore, using both Sr:Ca and Ba:Ca could be beneficial in reconstructing fish environmental histories. Temperature effects on otolith element ratios could confound past salinity reconstructions as well and must be a result of endogenous processes, given that no relationship between temperature and water chemistry existed.     

Element mapping the Merensky Reef of the Bushveld Complex

The Merensky Reef hosts one of the largest PGE resources globally.It has been exploited for nearly 100 years, yet its origin remains unresolved.In the present study, we characterised eight samples of the reef at four localities in the western Bushveld Complex using micro-X-ray fluorescence and field emission scanning electron microscopy.Our results indicate that the Merensky Reef formed through a range of diverse processes.Textures exhibited by chromite grains at the base of the reef are consistent with supercooling and in situ growth.The local thickening of the Merensky chromitite layers within troughs in the floor rocks is most readily explained by granular flow.Annealing and deformation textures in pyroxenes of the Merensky pegmatoid bear testament to recrystallisation and deformation.The footwall rocks to the reef contain disseminations of PGE rich sulphides as well as olivine grains with peritectic reaction rims along their upper margins suggesting reactive downward flow of silicate and sulphide melts.Olivine-hosted melt inclusions containing Cl-rich apatite, sodic plagioclase, and phlogopite suggest the presence of highly evolved, volatile-rich melts.Pervasive reverse zonation of cumulus plagioclase in the footwall of the reef indicates dissolution or partial melting of plagioclase, possibly triggered by flux of heat, acidic fluids, or hydrous melt.Together, these data suggest that the reef formed through a combination of magmatic, hydrodynamic and hydromagmatic processes.     

Zircon-scale insights into the history of a Supervolcano,Bishop Tuff,Long Valley,California, with implications for the Ti-in-zircon geothermometer

Zircon has the outstanding capacity to record chronological, thermal, and chemical information, including the storage history of zoned silicic magma reservoirs like the one responsible for the Bishop Tuff of eastern California, USA. Our novel ion microprobe approach reveals that Bishop zircon rims with diverse chemical characteristics surround intermediate domains with broadly similar compositions. The highest Y, REE, U, and Th concentrations tend to accompany the largest excesses in Y + REE³⁺:P beyond what can be explained by xenotime substitution in zircon. Apparent Ti-in-zircon temperatures of <720°C for zircon rims are distinctly lower than most of the range in eruption temperatures, as estimated from FeTi-oxide equilibria and zircon solubility at quench. While permissive of crystallization of zircon at near-solidus conditions, the low Ti-in-zircon temperatures are probably better explained by sources of inaccuracy in the temperature estimates. After apparently nucleating from different melts, zircons from across the Bishop Tuff compositional spectrum may have evolved to broadly similar chemical and thermal conditions and therefore it is possible that there was no significant thermal gradient in the magma reservoir at some stage in its evolution. There is also no compelling evidence for punctuated heat ± chemical influxes during the intermediate stages of zircon growth. Judging by the zircon record, the main volume of the erupted magma evolved normally by secular cooling but the latest erupted portion is characterized by a reversal in chemistry that appears to indicate perfusion of the magma reservoir by—or zircon entrainment in—a less evolved melt from the one in which the zircons had previously resided.     

Thermochronology of the Yidun Arc, central eastern Tibetan Plateau: constraints from Ar/Ar K-feldspar and apatite fission track data

Four K-feldspar samples from the Yidun Arc, eastern Tibetan Plateau, were analysed by the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method with the aim of recovering information on their thermal history using multiple diffusion domain (MDD) theory. Arrhenius plots for each of the samples reveal low retentivity early in the heating experiments, a property that is attributed to their recrystallised nature. This low argon retentivity appears to violate the MDD assumption that volume diffusion is the only mechanism for argon transport within the crystals, thus the thermal histories derived from these analyses are considered suspect. Nevertheless, the age spectra themselves suggest that the majority of samples had cooled below 200 °C prior to the Eocene collision of India with Asia. Thermal history modelling from apatite fission track analyses from the same and nearby samples shows slow cooling through the apatite fission track partial annealing zone during the Cenozoic in samples from the high elevation, low relief areas of the Yidun Arc, while samples from the major Jinsha River valley show rapid cooling through the partial annealing zone beginning in the Miocene. These results suggest that significant Cenozoic denudation has been localised and that most parts of the Yidun Arc have experienced very little denudation during the Cenozoic.     

Two melting regimes during Paleogene flood basalt generation in East Greenland: combined REE and PGE modelling

Previously published platinum group element (PGE) and rare earth element data (REE) from a sample suite of the Palaeogene flood basalts of the East Greenland rifted margin are used to approximate primary magma compositions by numerical models of mantle melting. Both high-Ti and low-Ti basalts are found intercalated in the coastal section “the Sortebre Profile” in central East Greenland, and the apparent lack of mixing between the two series indicates coexistence of two geographically separated melting regions and plumbing systems during continental breakup above the Palaeogene Iceland plume. The lavas show little or no sign of crustal contamination and the limited variation in La/Sm and Cu/Pd ratios can be interpreted to reflect mantle source composition and melting processes. Numerical modelling indicate that the low-Ti series formed by F~20% melting in a columnar melting regime from a slightly depleted upper mantle source with a relatively normal S-content (~180 ppm S). In contrast, the high-Ti series formed by much lower degrees of melting (F~6%) in a spreading-related, triangular melting regime from a relatively S-poor (~100 ppm S) source. The low-Ti suite was S-undersaturated at the stage of melt segregation from a shallow mantle source due to the high degree of melting. In contrast, the high-Ti suite probably formed from a S-poor source where some low degree melt batches were S-saturated at the stage of deep segregation in distal parts of the triangular melting regime. This suite shows a geochemical high pressure garnet-signature and adiabatic decompression could therefore have played a role in keeping the mantle-derived S in solution before Fe-enrichment related to fractional crystallisation also increased the S-capacity of these melts. An erratum to this article can be found at