Study of discontinuities in hydrological data using catastrophe theory

Abstract

Modelling and prediction of hydrological processes (e.g. rainfall–runoff) can be influenced by discontinuities in observed data, and one particular case may arise when the time scale (i.e. resolution) is coarse (e.g. monthly). This study investigates the application of catastrophe theory to examine its suitability to identify possible discontinuities in the rainfall–runoff process. A stochastic cusp catastrophe model is used to study possible discontinuities in the monthly rainfall–runoff process at the Aji River basin in Azerbaijan, Iran. Monthly-averaged rainfall and flow data observed over a period of 20 years (1981–2000) are analysed using the Cuspfit program. In this model, rainfall serves as a control variable and runoff as a behavioural variable. The performance of this model is evaluated using four measures: correlation coefficient, log-likelihood, Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The results indicate the presence of discontinuities in the rainfall–runoff process, with a significant sudden jump in flow (cusp signal) when rainfall reaches a threshold value. The performance of the model is also found to be better than that of linear and logistic models. The present results, though preliminary, are promising in the sense that catastrophe theory can play a possible role in the study of hydrological systems and processes, especially when the data are noisy.

Citation Ghorbani, M. A., Khatibi, R., Sivakumar, B. & Cobb, L. (2010) Study of discontinuities in hydrological data using catastrophe theory. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1137–1151.     

大兴安岭北段塔河辉长岩的岩石学特征及其构造意义

塔河辉长岩是大兴安岭北段塔河地区最具代表性的辉长岩体.该岩体主要由橄榄辉长岩、浅色橄榄辉长岩、淡色辉长岩(斜长岩)、橄长岩及辉长岩组成,以橄榄辉长岩和橄长岩为主.其主要造岩矿物由斜长石、橄榄石、单斜辉石及少量角闪石组成,具反应边结构和包含嵌晶结构.电子探针分析结果表明,其橄榄石Fo平均为77,属贵橄榄石.单斜辉石全部落入透辉石区.斜长石An平均为85,为倍长石.岩相学特征表明,该岩体为典型的堆晶辉长岩体.根据An-Fo及AlZ -TiO2 图解可以判别该岩体形成于活动大陆边缘/岛弧的构造环境中,属于I型弧堆晶辉长岩,其形成可能与古亚洲洋闭合过程中板块俯冲-流体交代作用有关,是研究古亚洲洋闭合历史的一个重要岩石学标志.     

Passive earth pressure on embedded vertical plate anchors in sand

Passive earth pressure on embedded anchor plates constitutes a viable resisting force for the design of underground structures. In the current practice, these forces are empirically calculated, ignoring the effects of the depth of embedment and the level of consolidation of the surrounding soil, which takes place during plate installation on the in situ stress levels. Accordingly, wide discrepancies between predicted and measured pullout capacities of these plates were reported in the literature. Numerical model was developed using finite-element technique and the constitutive law of Mohr?CCoulomb to simulate the case of a retaining wall partially supported by an embedded anchor plate in sand. The results produced in this investigation showed that the passive earth pressure acting on anchor plates increases due to the increase of angle of shearing resistance and the overconsolidation ratio of sand, and it decreases due to an increase of the embedment depth of anchor. Design theories were developed for the case of embedded anchor plate in overconsolidated sand. The theories developed will satisfy the design needed in terms of allowable pullout load and/or displacement.     

Summer monsoon rainfall scenario over Bangladesh using a high-resolution AGCM

Summer monsoon rainfall was simulated by a global 20 km-mesh atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), focusing on the changes in the summer monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh. Calibration and validation of AGCM were performed over Bangladesh for generating summer monsoon rainfall scenarios. The model-produced summer monsoon rainfall was calibrated with a ground-based observational data in Bangladesh during the period 1979–2003. The TRMM 3B43 V6 data are also used for understanding the model performance. The AGCM output obtained through validation process made it confident to be used for near future and future summer monsoon rainfall projection in Bangladesh. In the present-day (1979–2003) climate simulations, the high-resolution AGCM produces the summer monsoon rainfall better as a spatial distribution over SAARC region in comparison with TRMM but magnitude may be different. Summer monsoon rainfall projection for Bangladesh was experimentally obtained for near future and future during the period 2015–2034 and 2075–2099, respectively. This work reveals that summer monsoon rainfall simulated by a high-resolution AGCM is not directly applicable to application purpose. However, acceptable performance was obtained in estimating summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh after calibration and validation. This study predicts that in near future, summer monsoon rainfall on an average may decrease about ?0.5 % during the period 2015–2034 and future summer monsoon rainfall may increase about 0.4 % during the period 2075–2099.     

Evaluation of an interrill soil erosion model using laboratory catchment data

Physically based soil erosion simulation models require input parameters of soil detachment and sediment transport owing to the action and interactions of both raindrops and overland flow. A simple interrill soil water transport model is applied to a laboratory catchment to investigate the application of raindrop detachment and transport in interrill areas explicitly. A controlled laboratory rainfall simulation study with slope length simulation by flow addition was used to assess the raindrop detachment and transport of detached soil by overland flow in interrill areas. Artificial rainfall of moderate to high intensity was used to simulate intense rain storms. However, experiments were restricted to conditions where rilling and channelling did not occur and where overland flow covered most of the surface. A simple equation with a rainfall intensity term for raindrop detachment, and a simple sediment transport equation with unit discharge and a slope term were found to be applicable to the situation where clear water is added at the upper end of a small plot to simulate increased slope length. The proposed generic relationships can be used to predict raindrop detachment and the sediment transport capacity of interrill flow and can therefore contribute to the development of physically‐based erosion models. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrochemistry in coastal aquifer of southwest Bangladesh: origin of salinity

In the coastal region of Bangladesh, groundwater is mainly used for domestic and agricultural purposes, but salinization of many groundwater resources limits its suitability for human consumption and practical application. This paper reports the results of a study that has mapped the salinity distribution in different aquifer layers up to a depth of 300 m in a region bordering the Bay of Bengal based on the main hydrochemistry and has investigated the origin of the salinity using Cl/Br ratios of the samples. The subsurface consists of a sequence of deltaic sediments with an alternation of more sandy and clayey sections in which several aquifer layers can be recognized. The main hydrochemistry shows different main water types in the different aquifers, indicating varying stages of freshening or salinization processes. The most freshwater, soft NaHCO₃-type water with Cl concentrations mostly below 100 mg/l, is found in the deepest aquifer at 200–300 m below ground level (b.g.l.), in which the fresh/saltwater interface is pushed far to the south. Salinity is a main problem in the shallow aquifer systems, where Cl concentrations rise to nearly 8000 mg/l and the groundwater is mostly brackish NaCl water. Investigation of the Cl/Br ratios has shown that the source of the salinity in the deep aquifer is mixing with old connate seawater and that the saline waters in the more shallow aquifers do not originate from old connate water or direct seawater intrusion, but are derived from the dissolution of evaporite salts. These must have been formed in a tidal flat under influence of a strong seasonal precipitation pattern. Long dry seasons with high evaporation rates have evaporated seawater from inundated gullies and depressions, leading to salt precipitation, while subsequent heavy monsoon rains have dissolved the formed salts, and the solution has infiltrated in the subsoil, recharging groundwater.     

Adenine oxidation by pyrite-generated hydroxyl radicals

Cellular exposure to particulate matter with concomitant formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and oxidization of biomolecules may lead to negative health outcomes. Evaluating the particle-induced formation of ROS and the oxidation products from reaction of ROS with biomolecules is useful for gaining a mechanistic understanding of particle-induced oxidative stress. Aqueous suspensions of pyrite particles have been shown to form hydroxyl radicals and degrade nucleic acids. Reactions between pyrite-induced hydroxyl radicals and nucleic acid bases, however, remain to be determined. Here, we compared the oxidation of adenine by Fenton-generated (i.e., ferrous iron and hydrogen peroxide) hydroxyl radicals to adenine oxidation by hydroxyl radicals generated in pyrite aqueous suspensions. Results show that adenine oxidizes in the presence of pyrite (without the addition of hydrogen peroxide) and that the rate of oxidation is dependent on the pyrite loading. Adenine oxidation was prevented by addition of either catalase or ethanol to the pyrite/adenine suspensions, which implies that hydrogen peroxide and hydroxyl radicals are causing the adenine oxidation. The adenine oxidation products, 8-oxoadenine and 2-hydroxyadenine, were the same whether hydroxyl radicals were generated by Fenton or pyrite-initiated reactions. Although nucleic acid bases are unlikely to be directly exposed to pyrite particles, the formation of ROS in the vicinity of cells may lead to oxidative stress.     

Characterization of underground tunnel water hydrochemical system and uses through multivariate statistical methods: a case study from Maddhapara Granite Mine,Dinajpur, Bangladesh

A quality study of the drained water from Maddhapara Granite Mine underground tunnel was undertaken to study their hydrochemical variations and suitability for various uses employing chemical analysis, basic statistics, correlation matrix (r), cluster analysis, principal component/factor analyses, and ANOVA as the multivariate statistical methods. The results of chemical analysis of water show the modest variation in their ionic assemblage among different sampling points of the tunnel where Ca–HCO₃ type of hydrochemical facies is principally dominated. The correlation matrix shows a very strong to very weak positive, even negative, correlation relationship, suggesting the influence of different processes such as geochemical, biochemical processes, and multiple anthropogenic sources on controlling the hydrochemical evolution and variations of water in the mine area. Cluster analysis confirms that cluster 1 contains 68.75% of total samples, whereas cluster 2 contains 31.25%. On the whole, the dominated chemical ions of first cluster groups are Ca and HCO₃, suggesting a natural process similar to dissolution of carbonate minerals. The second cluster group consisted of Cl^? and SO₄ ^2? ions representing natural and anthropogenic hydrochemical process. The results of PCA/FA analysis illustrate that different processes are involved in controlling the chemical composition of groundwater in the mine area. The factor 1 loadings showed that pH, EC, TDS, Na, Mg, chloride, and sulfate which have high loading in this factor are expected to come from carbonate dissolution to oxidation conditions. One-way ANOVA describes the significance of dependent variables with respect to independent variables. ANOVA gives us the idea that EC, K⁺, Fe^total, SO ₄ ² , As, and Pb are the most important factors in controlling spatial differences in water quality in this tunnel. But different results have been encountered for different independent variables which might be due to dissimilar sources of water. From the qualitative analysis, it is clear that water quality is not very favorable for aquatic creatures as well as for drinking purposes. The water can be used for irrigation purposes without any doubt as SAR and RSC analysis provides good results. Moreover, the results of this research confirmed that the application of multivariate statistical analysis methods is apposite to inferring complex water quality data sets with its possible pollution sources. At the end, this research recommends (1) as water becomes more and more important, water treatment plants should be built before the water being used; (2) a detailed water step utilization plan should be set beforehand to guarantee tunnel water being used effectively; and (3) after the water being used for agriculture, elements in crops should be monitored continuously to ensure that ions and compounds that come from the tunnel water are lower than guideline values for human beings health.     

Spatiotemporal meteorological drought assessment: a case study in south-east Australia

Natural Hazards - An understanding on different aspects of droughts is crucial for effective water resources management. Australia has experienced notable droughts in recent years. The present...     

Homogeneity and trend analysis of rainfall and droughts over Southeast Australia

Natural Hazards - This study investigates rainfall and drought characteristics in southeastern Australia (New South Wales and Victoria) using data from 45 rainfall stations. Four homogeneity tests...