Saturation of groundwaters with respect to minerals of the host rocks

Calculations of the saturation of groundwaters with respect to minerals of the rocks hosting these waters indicate that most of the analyzed groundwaters were saturates with respect to calcite, dolomite, and quartz. Brines of chloride-calcic composition were determined to be saturated with respect to calcite, whereas brines of chloride-sodic composition are saturated with respect to dolomite and quartz. The solution was simultaneously saturated with respect to six minerals for the association ankerite-calcite-dolomite-pyrite-quartz-strontianite. An increase in the number of minerals with respect to which solution is saturated is correlated with an increase in the diversity of types of groundwaters and an increase in the runoff rate. The paper proposes possible avenues for searches for relations between hydrogeological and geochemical parameters that make it possible to adapt the thermodynamic models to real geological-hydrogeological conditions. The research was centered on the testing of groundwaters for their saturation with respect to minerals of the rocks hosting these waters. This parameter plays a significant part in forming the geochemical type of natural waters because it reflects the crystallization of a mineral from a solution and, consequently, the removal of an element from the aqueous solution.     

Meridional transport of sensible heat in contrasting monsoon activity: Spherical harmonic analysis

Spherical harmonic analysis is made of the grid point values of geopotential heights at 700 mb and 300 mb levels for the months April to August for the years 1967 and 1972. The year 1967 is a good monsoon year and 1972 is a bad monsoon year in India. Meridional transport of sensible heat is obtained in wave number domain using spherical harmonic coefficients at 500 mb level form=1 to 10 andn–m=0 to 10, wherem represents the wave number round the globe andn–m gives the numbers of zero points from north pole to south pole excluding the poles themselves.Large northward transports of sensible heat in the month of May and in the monsoon months at the subtropics are characteristic of bad monsoon. Wave 1 transports sensible heat southward (forn–m=0) and wave 2 transports sensible heat northward (forn–m=4). Strengthening of wave 1 is conducive to good monsoon year and strengthening of wave 2 is conducive to bad monsoon year. These are the same features obtained in Fourier analysis. The contrasting features exist in waves 1 and 2 both in good and in bad monsoon and are better defined in the present analysis than in the Fourier analysis of the earlier study. However, waves 1 and 2 reveal clearer contrast in the present analysis than in the Fourier analysis. Bad monsoon activity is associated with large divergence of heart at subtropics and large convergence of heat at extra tropics.     

The luminosity function of halo white dwarfs

Recently, Liebertet al. (1989) have obtained an approximate observational luminosity function for halo white dwarfs. Certainly, this first attempt will be improved by the forthcoming Very Large Telescopes. Here we construct theoretical luminosity functions of such stars and we examine their dependence on the age of the halo. Finally, we show that accurate observational luminosity functions could provide useful information about the evolution of the galaxy.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.     

STEREO SECCHI and S/WAVES Observations of Spacecraft Debris Caused by Micron-Size Interplanetary Dust Impacts

Early in the STEREO mission observers noted that the white-light instruments of the SECCHI suite were detecting significantly more spacecraft-related “debris” than any previously flown coronagraphic instruments. Comparison of SECCHI “debris storms” with S/WAVES indicates that almost all are coincident with the most intense transient emissions observed by the radio and plasma waves instrument. We believe the debris is endogenous (i.e., from the spacecraft thermal blanketing), and the storms appear to be caused by impacts of large interplanetary dust grains that are detected by S/WAVES. Here we report the observations, compare them to interplanetary dust distributions, and document a reminder for future spacebased coronagraphic instrument builders.

     

The size distribution of trans-Neptunian bodies

The magnitude distribution of the trans-Neptunian bodies composed of the Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) and Scattered Disk Objects (SDOs) is determined for absolute magnitudes H?7, using maximum likelihood estimation methods. This is translated into a corresponding size distribution. This gave a differential size index of q=3.966±0.15 for KBOs and q=3.016±0.32 for SDOs. It was found that these two distributions were statistically different. The KBOs were further split into classical KBOs and Plutinos which had indices of q=4.074±0.18 and q=3.301±0.37, respectively. There was no statistical evidence that these are different populations. The classical KBOs were further split and examined for four different semi-major axis ranges and it was found that there was moderate evidence that the entire sample was not well represented by one index. The distribution indices of the SDOs were compared with the distributions of short period comets and found to be similar. It is likely that the scattered disk population is the source of the short period comets.     

Evolution of helically twisted prominence structures of March 11, 1979

Helical structures are generally associated with many eruptive solar prominences. Thus, study of their evolution in the solar atmosphere assumes importance. We present a study of a flare-associated erupting prominence of March 11, 1979, with conspicuous helically twisted structure, observed in H line center. We have attempted to understand the role played by twisted force-free magnetic fields in this event. In the analysis, we have assumed that the helical structures visible in H outline the field lines in which prominence tubes are embedded. Untwisting of observed prominence tubes and later, formation of open prominence structures provide evidence of restructuring of the magnetic field configuration over the active region during the course of prominence eruption. Temporal evolution of the force-free parameter is obtained for two main prominence tubes observed to be intertwined in a rope-like structure. Axial electric currents associated with the prominence tubes are estimated to be of the order of 10¹¹ A which decreased with time. Correspondingly, it is estimated that the rate of energy release was 10²⁸ erg s^–1 during the prominence eruption.     

Potential neutrino signals in a northern hemisphere neutrino telescope from galactic gamma-ray sources

Neutrino energy spectra have been calculated based on the recently measured energy spectra of Galactic very high energy γ-ray sources. Based on these neutrino spectra the expected event rates in the ANTARES neutrino telescope and KM3NeT, a future neutrino telescope in the Mediterranean Sea with an instrumented volume of one km³, have been calculated. For the brightest γ-ray sources we find event rates of the order of one neutrino per year. Although the neutrino event rates are comparable to the background from atmospheric neutrinos the detection of individual sources seems possible.     

The permeability of faults within siliciclastic petroleum reservoirs of the North Sea and Norwegian Continental Shelf

Faulting in Middle Jurassic reservoirs occurred at shallow depth during regional extension. Clean sandstones (<15% clay) deformed without significant grain fracturing and permeability reduction. Faults in impure sandstones (15–40% clay) experienced significant syn-deformation compaction and permeability reduction. Enhanced compaction during deeper burial reduced their permeabilities further from an average of 0.05 mD at <2.5 km to 0.001 mD at >4 km. Clay-rich sediments (>40% clay) deformed to produce clay smears with very low permeabilities (<0.001 mD). Faulting in the Rotliegendes occurred at greater depth during both basin extension and inversion. Extensional faulting produced cataclasites with permeability reductions of <10–>10⁶; their permeabilities range from 0.2 to 0.0001 mD and are inversely related to their maximum burial depth. Faults formed or reactivated during inversion experienced permeability increase. These results can be extrapolated to other hydrocarbon reservoirs if differences in stress and temperature history are taken into account.The permeability of most (>80%) faults is not sufficiently low, compared to their wallrock, to retard single-phase fluid flow on a km-scale. Nevertheless, most faults could retard the flow of a non-wetting phase if present at low saturations. It may be necessary to incorporate the two-phase fluid flow properties of fault rocks into reservoir simulators using upscaling or pseudoisation techniques. Fault property data should be calibrated against production data before it can be used confidently.     

Measurements of radio noise at 0.700 mc and 2.200 mc from a high-altitude rocket probe

Radio noise observations at frequencies of 0·700 Mc and 2·200 Mc were made at altitudes between 3000 and 11,000 km from a Blue Scout Jr. high-altitude rocket probe on 30 July 1963. A steady background flux of (7·5₋₃⁺⁶) × 10⁻¹⁹ W m⁻²)(c/s)⁻¹ at 0·700 Mc and (1·8^+1.0_−0.5 × 10⁻¹⁹ W m⁻² (c/s)⁻¹ at 2·200 Mc was observed. Assuming a galactic origin of the observed fluxes at both frequencies, the averaged sky brightnesses are b(0·700 Mc) = (6₋₃⁺⁵) × 10⁻²⁰ W m⁻² (c/s)⁻¹ sr⁻¹b(2·200 Mc) = (1.4^+1.0_−0.5 × 10⁻²⁰ W m⁻² (c/s)⁻¹ sr⁻¹ The observed brightness at 2·200 Mc is in reasonable agreement with the results of other observers. The apparent brightness at 0·700 Mc is, however, greater than was expected from previous observations. An alternative source of the 0·700 Mc flux in the terrestrial exosphere, as well as characteristics of several noise bursts observed during the flight, is briefly discussed.     

BIBLIOGRAPHIE

Abstract

Time series modelling approaches are useful tools for simulating and forecasting hydrological variables and their change through time. Although linear time series models are common in hydrology, the nonlinear time series model, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, has rarely been used in hydrology and water resources engineering. The GARCH model considers the conditional variance remaining in the residuals of the linear time series models, such as an ARMA or an ARIMA model. In the present study, the advantages of a GARCH model against a linear ARIMA model are investigated using three classes of the GARCH approach, namely Power GARCH, Threshold GARCH and Exponential GARCH models. A daily streamflow time series of the Matapedia River, Quebec, Canada, is selected for this study. It is shown that the ARIMA (13,1,4) model is adequate for modelling streamflow time series of Matapedia River, but the Engle test shows the existence of heteroscedasticity in the residuals of the ARIMA model. Therefore, an ARIMA (13,1,4)-GARCH (3,1) error model is fitted to the data. The residuals of this model are examined for the existence of heteroscedasticity. The Engle test indicates that the GARCH model has considerably reduced the heteroscedasticity of the residuals. However, the Exponential GARCH model seems to completely remove the heteroscedasticity from the residuals. The multi-criteria evaluation for model performance also proves that the Exponential GARCH model is the best model among ARIMA and GARCH models. Therefore, the application of a GARCH model is strongly suggested for hydrological time series modelling as the conditional variance of the residuals of the linear models can be removed and the efficiency of the model will be improved.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Modarres, R. and Ouarda, T.B.M.J., 2013. Modelling heteroscedasticty of streamflow times series. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–11.