Predictive Capabilities of Avalanche Models for Solar Flares

We assess the predictive capabilities of various classes of avalanche models for solar flares. We demonstrate that avalanche models cannot generally be used to predict specific events because of their high sensitivity to the embedded stochastic process. We show that deterministically driven models can nevertheless alleviate this caveat and be efficiently used for predictions of large events. Our results suggest a new approach for predictions of large (typically X-class) solar flares based on simple and computationally inexpensive avalanche models.     

Joint computation of aerodynamic and radiation forces acting on spacecraft

A methodology is presented for the joint computation of aerodynamic and radiation forces acting on orbital spacecraft. Special attention is given to the computation of the radiation component. The reliability of the results is confirmed by comparing them with those obtained by other methods and flight measurements. Results are presented of a study of the combined impact induced by solar radiation and the upper atmosphere on the small spacecraft MKAFKI (Zond-PP).     

Variable stars in the Bochum Galactic Disk Survey

We present a first overview of variable stars in the Bochum Galactic Disk Survey (GDS) with emphasis on eclipsing binaries (EBs). This ongoing survey is performed by a robotic twin refractor at the Universitätssternwarte Bochum located near Cerro Armazones in Chile. It comprises a mosaic of 268 fields in a stripe of Δb = ±3° along the Galactic plane observed once per month simultaneously in the Sloan r and i filters with a detection limit of r_s ∼ 16 mag and i_s ∼ 15 mag. The data from the first three years until the end of February 2014 yields a total of 41718 variable stars with variability amplitudes between 0.1–6 mag. A cross‐match with SIMBAD identified 11 465 of these variables unambiguously, while 2184 had multiple matches; most of the remaining stars could be matched with 2MASS objects. Among the SIMBAD‐listed objects with single matches, only 1982 turned out as known variables while a further 256 are suspected of variability. That leaves a total of 39480 potentially new variables. The group of known variables comprises 419 stars (21 %) that are classified as EBs while 443 (22%) are of other types; for the remaining 1120 catalogued variables (57 %) the type is unknown. Investigating variability as a function of spectral type, we find that SIMBAD provides spectral types for 2811 (25 %) of the identified stars. Spectral classes B (26 %), A (20 %), and M (25%) contain the most numerous variables, while all other classes contribute less than 10% each. More than half of the B (55 %) and A (56%) stars are designated as EBs, suggesting that hundreds of new B‐ and A‐type EBs may be contained in the GDS archive. In contrast, among the numerous M stars no EBs are known. (© 2015 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Phase differences between irradiance and velocity low degree solar acoustic modes revisited

Since 1984, simultaneous observations of irradiance and velocity solar acoustic modes, have been carried out by several authors in order to measure the phase difference between irradiance and velocity modes. Following the earliest observations with stratospheric balloon (Frolich and van Der Raay, 1984), a two ground-based stations (Tenerife and Baja California) were established (Jimenez et al, 1990) obtaining coherence results in the frequency range from 2.5 mHz to 4.3 mHz. These phase differences between irradiance and velocity solar acoustic modes are interpreted in terms of the non-adiabatic behaviour of the solar atmosphere. In 1988 the IPHIR (Frolich et al, 1988) instrument flown on the PHOBOS-2 mission to Mars and measured the solar irradiance during 150 consecutive days. The best velocity observations obtained in Tenerife for this period were compared with IPHIR data to compute the phase differences (Schrijver et al, 1991). The final conclusion is that good agreement is attained between space quadsi-space and ground observations which yield a phase diffenrece of about -125 degrees in the frequency range 2.5 mHz to 4.2 mHz, with a slight increase suggested by the data running up to 4.6 mHz.     

Toward planets around neutron stars

The two Earth-like mass objects orbiting a 6.2-ms pulsar, PSR1257+25, have survived more than one year of close scrutiny aimed at verifying their existence and remain the most serious candidates to become the first planets detected beyond the Solar System. The analysis of systematic timing measurements of the pulsar made over a 2.5-year period continues to require the presence of two planets with the minimum masses of 3.4M and 2.8M and the corresponding distances from PSR1257+12 of 0.36 AU and 0.47 AU to correctly predict the pulse arrival times. The presently available 3µs rms accuracy of this procedure leaves little room for significant contributions to the pulsar's timing from any mechanisms other than the Keplerian motion. A detection of the effect of planetary perturbations on pulse arrival times which is commonly accepted as the most convincing way to furnish a 100% proof of the reality of pulsar planets is already possible at a 2 level. Intensive searches for millisecond pulsars now under way at various observatories are expected to address a very intriguing question of the frequency of occurrence of neutron star planetary systems.Paper presented at the Conference onPlanetary Systems: Formation, Evolution, and Detection held 7–10 December, 1992 at CalTech, Pasadena, California, U.S.A.     

A global 3-D simulation of interplanetary dynamics in June 1991

The global dynamics of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field in June 1991 is simulated based on a fully three-dimensional, time-dependent numerical MHD model. The numerical simulation includes eight transient disturbances associated with the major solar flares of June 1991. The unique features of the present simulation are: (i) the disturbances are originated at the coronal base (1R _s) and their propagation through inhomogeneous ambient solar wind is simulated out to 1.5 AU; (ii) as a background for the transients, the global steady-state solar wind structure inferred from the 3-D steady-state model (Usmanov, 1993c) is used. The parameters of the initial pulses are prescribed in terms of the near-Sun shock velocities (as inferred from the metric Type II radio burst observations) relative to the preshock steady-state flow parameters at the flare sites. The computed parameters at the Earth's location for the period 1–18 June, 1991 are compared with the available observations of the interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind velocity, density, and with variation of the geomagnetic activityK _pindex.     

Robe's restricted three-body problem revisited

Robe's restricted three-body problem is reanalyzed with a view to incorporate a new assumption, namely that the configuration of the fluid body is that described by an hydrostatic equilibrium figure (Roche's ellipsoid). In the concomitant gravitational field a full treatment of the buoyancy force is given. The pertinent equations of motion are derived, the linear stability of the equilibrium solution is studied and the connection between the effect of the buoyancy forces and a perturbation of the Coriolis force is pointed out.     

A study of the magnetic helicity during eight HELIOS-observed solar proton events

We have studied the influence of the magnetic helicity on solar particle propagation using the IMF data observed by the HELIOS spacecraft in the range 0.31–0.95 AU, during eight solar proton events. For this, we have derived power and helicity spectra of the turbulence of the magnetic field during the time of the events. These are used to compute the particle pitch-angle scattering coefficients according to the quasi-linear theory (QLT) treatment of particle propagation in turbulent magnetic fields. The results show that in all the cases the helicity effects are negligible and the particle's mean free paths deduced from the pitch-angle diffusion coefficients are the same regardless of whether or not helicity effects are included in the calculations. The computed mean free paths are quite different in each case.Deceased 10 April, 1995.     

The solar surface differential rotation from disk-integrated chromospheric fluxes

Disk-integrated solar chromospheric Caii K-line (3933.68 ) fluxes have been measured almost daily at Sacramento Peak Observatory since 1977. Using observing windows selected to mimic seasonal windows for chromospheric measurements of lower Main-Sequence stars such as those observed by Mount Wilson Observatory's HK Project, we have measured the solar rotation from the modulation of the Caii K-line flux. We track the change of rotation period from the decline of cycle 21 through the maximum of cycle 22. This variation in rotation period is shown to behave as expected from the migration of active regions in latitude according to Maunder's butterfly diagram, including an abrupt change in rotation period at the transition from cycle 21 to cycle 22. These results indicate the successful detection of solar surface differential rotation from disk-integrated observations. We argue that the success of our study compared to previous investigations of the solar surface differential rotation from disk-integrated fluxes lies primarily with the choice of the length of the time-series window. Our selection of 200 days is shorter than in previous studies whose windows are typically on the order of one year. The 200-day window is long enough to permit an accurate determination of the rotation period, yet short enough to avoid complications arising from active region evolution. Thus, measurements of the variation of rotation period in lower Main-Sequence stars, especially those that appear to be correlated with long-term changes in chromospheric activity (i.e., cycles), are probably evidence for stellar surface differential rotation.