Nowcasting with INCA During SNOW-V10

A Central-European nowcasting system which has been developed for use in mountainous terrain is tested in the Whistler/Vancouver area as part of the SNOW-V10 experiment. The integrated nowcasting through comprehensive analysis system provides hourly updated gridded forecasts of temperature, humidity, and wind, as well as precipitation forecasts which are updated every 15 min. It is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) output and real-time surface weather station and radar data. Verification of temperature, relative humidity, and wind against surface stations shows that forecast errors are significantly reduced in the nowcasting range compared to those of the driving NWP model. The main contribution to the improvement comes from the implicit bias correction due to use of the latest observations. Relative humidity shows the longest lasting effect, with >50 % reduction of mean absolute error up to +4 h. For temperature and wind speed this percentage is reached after +2 and +3 h, respectively. Two cases of precipitation nowcasting are discussed and verified qualitatively.     

Automated Image Registration for Hydrologic Change Detection in the Lake-Rich Arctic

Multitemporal remote sensing provides a unique tool to track lake dynamics at the pan-Arctic scale but requires precise registration of thousands of satellite images. This is a challenging task owing to a dearth of stable features to be used as tie points [(TPs), i.e., control points] in the dynamic landscapes. This letter develops an automated method to precisely register images in the lake-rich Arctic. The core premise of the method is that the centers of lakes are generally stable even if their shorelines are not. The proposed procedures first extract lakes in multitemporal satellite images, derive lake centroids and match them between images, and then use the centroids of stable lakes as TPs for image registration. The results show that this approach can achieve subpixel registration accuracy, outcompeting the conventional manual methods in both efficiency and accuracy. The proposed method is fully automated and represents a feasible way to register images for lake change detection at the pan-Arctic scale.      

Numerical modeling of the Rideau Valley Watershed

Using the Mike11 modeling system by the Danish Hydraulic Institute, a detailed model of the Rideau Valley Watershed was constructed. It includes 532 km of rivers and lakes, 106 basins, 122 bridges and culverts, and 20 water control structures. The model was calibrated using measured streamflow data for a time period of 5 years; additional 5 years of data was used for validation. Various methods, both qualitative and quantitative, were used to evaluate the model performance. It was found that the model can simulate the hydrological response with a reasonable to high degree of accuracy. This model is now being used for various watershed management purposes, including flood forecasting, dam safety assessment, quantification of wetland functions, and derivation of design flows.     

On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.     

Jinshanjiangite and bafertisite from the Gremyakha-Vyrmes Alkaline Complex,Kola Peninsula

Jinshanjiangite (acicular crystals up to 2 mm in length) and bafertisite (lamellar crystals up to 3 × 4 mm in size) have been found in alkali granite pegmatite of the Gremyakha-Vyrmes Complex, Kola Peninsula. Albite, microcline, quartz, arfvedsonite, zircon, and apatite are associated minerals. The dimensions of a monoclinic unit cell of jinshanjiangite and bafertisite are: a = 10.72(2), b=13.80(2), c = 20.94(6) Å, β = 97.0(5)° and a = 10.654(6), b = 13.724(6), c = 10.863(8) Å, β = 94.47(8)°, respectively. The typical compositions (electron microprobe data) of jinshanjiangite and bafertisite are: (Na_0.57Ca_0.44)_Σ1.01(Ba_0.57K_0.44)_Σ1.01 (Fe_3.53Mn_0.30Mg_0.04Zn_0.01)_Σ3.88(Ti_1.97Nb_0.06Zr_0.01)_Σ2.04(Si_3.97Al_0.03O₁₄)O_2.00(OH_2.25F_0.73O_0.02)_Σ3.00 and (Ba_1.98Na_0.04K_0.03)_Σ2.05(Fe_3.43Mn_0.37Mg_0.03)_Σ3.83(Ti_2.02Nb_0.03)_Σ2.05 (Si_3.92Al_0.08O₁₄)(O_1.84OH_0.16)_Σ2.00(OH_2.39F_1.61)_Σ3.00, respectively. The minerals studied are the Fe-richest members of the bafertisite structural family.     

CURRENT CHANNELLING IN SQUARE PLATES WITH APPLICATIONS TO MAGNETOMETRIC RESISTIVITY1

The magnetometric resistivity (MMR) method uses a sensitive magnetometer to measure the low-level, low-frequency magnetic fields associated with the galvanic current flow between a pair of electrodes. While the MMR anomalies of simple structures such as dikes and vertical contacts have been determined analytically, there is a lack of systematic information on the expected responses from simple three-dimensional bodies. We determine the characteristic anomalies associated with square, plate-like conductors, which are excellent models of many base metal mineral deposits. The anomalies of plates of finite size are determined numerically using an integral equation method. A plate is subdivided into many sections and the current flow within each section is solved by equating the electrical field within each section to the tangential electrical field just outside it. When the plate size is small in relation to either the depth or the transmitter spacing, the shape and amplitude of the anomaly produced is closely approximated by a current dipole model of the same length and depth. At the other extreme, a large plate is represented by a half-plane. The dipole and half-plane models are used to bracket the behaviour of plates of finite size. The form of a plate anomaly is principally dependent on the shape, depth and orientation of the plate. A large, dipping plate near the surface produces a skewed anomaly highly indicative of its dip, but the amount of skew rapidly diminishes with increased depth or decreased size. Changes in plate conductivity affect the amplitude of the anomaly, but have little effect on anomaly shape. A current channelling parameter, determined from the conductivity contrast, can thus be used to scale the amplitude of an anomaly whose basic shape has been determined from geometrical considerations. The separation into geometrical and electrical factors greatly simplifies both the interpretation and modelling of MMR anomalies, particularly in situations with multiple plates. An empirical formula, using this separation, predicts the anomaly of two or more parallel plates with different conductances. In addition, the relation between the resolution of two vertical, parallel plates of equal conductance and their separation is determined. The ability of the integral equation method to model plate-like structures is demonstrated with the interpretation of an MMR anomaly in a survey conducted at Cork Tree Well in Western Australia. The buried conductor, a mineralized graphitic zone, is modelled with a vertical, bent plate. The depth to the top of the plate, and the plate conductance, is adjusted to fit the anomaly amplitude as closely as possible. From the modelling it would appear that this zone is not solely responsible for the observed anomaly.     

New data on paleontological characteristic of the Oligocene in the Il’pinskii Peninsula, northeastern Kamchatka

Fossil diatom algae first found in the Paleogene marine succession (Alugivayam Formation) of the Il’pinskii Peninsula, northeastern Kamchatka are studied, and new data on molluscan assemblages from the same sequences are presented. Some of the diatom forms identified suggest the Oligocene age of their host deposits. This is consistent with earlier inference from benthic groups of marine organisms.