A comparative study of the performance of various vertical discretization schemes

Summary Most finite-difference numerical weather prediction models employ vertical discretizations that are staggered, and are low-order (usually second-order) approximations for the important terms such as the derivation of the geopotential from the hydrostatic equation, and the calculation of the vertically integrated divergence. In a sigma-coordinate model the latter is used for computing both the surface pressure change and the vertical velocity. All of the above-mentioned variables can diminish the accuracy of the forecast if they are not calculated accurately, and can have an impact on related quantities such as precipitation.In this study various discretization schemes in the vertical are compared both in theory and in practice. Four different vertical grids are tested: one unstaggered and three staggered (including the widely-used Lorenz grid). The comparison is carried out by assessing the accuracy of the grids using vertical numerics that range from second-order up to sixth-order.The theoretical part of the study examines how faithfully each vertical grid reproduces the vertical modes of the governing equations linearized with a basic state atmosphere. The performance of the grids is evaluated for 2nd, 4th and 6th-order numerical schemes based on Lagrange polynomials, and for a 6th-ordercompact scheme.Our interpretation of the results of the theoretical study is as follows. The most important result is that the order of accuracy employed in the numerics seems to be more significant than the choice of vertical grid. There are differences between the grids at second-order, but these differences effectively vanish as the order of accuracy increases. The sixth-order schemes all produce very accurate results with the grids performing equally well, and with the compact scheme significantly outperforming the Lagrange scheme. A second major result is that for the number of levels typically used in current operational forecast models, second-order schemes (which are used almost universally) all appear to be relatively poor, for other than the lowest modes.The theoretical claims were confirmed in practice using a large number (100) of forecasts with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre's operational model. By comparing test model forecasts using the four grids and the different orders of numerics with very high resolution control model forecasts, the results of the theoretical study seem to be corroborated.With 8 Figures     

Temporal fluctuations in weather disasters: 1950–1989

A unique historical data set describing the 142 storms producing losses in excess of $100 million in the United States during the 1950–89 period were analyzed to describe their temporal characteristics. These weather disasters (WDs) caused $66.2 billion in losses, 76% of the nation's insured losses in this period. Disasters were most prevalent in the south, southeast, northeast, and central U.S., with few in and west of the Rockies. The incidence of WDs was high in the 1950s, low in the 1960s-early 1970s, and peaked in the 1980s. Losses due to WDs peaked in the 1950s, again in the late 1960s, and with a lesser peak after 1985. The areal extent of storm losses peaked after 1975 and was least in the 1960s. The temporal variations of the three storm measures (incidence, losses, and extent) had poor agreement, and agreed only when they peaked in the 1950s. Regionally-derived time distributions of WDs showed marked north-south differences with a U-shaped 40-year distribution in the northern half of the nation, whereas southern regions had a relatively flat trend until achieving a peak in the 1980s. The temporal distributions of hurricane-caused disasters differed regionally, with the distributions in the southern, southeastern, and northeastern U.S. each quite different. Temporal distributions of thunderstorm and winter storm-produced disasters were regionally more uniform. The national 5-year WD frequencies correlated moderately well with annual mean temperatures which explained 40% of the variability found in WDs during 1950–89. Weather disasters peaked in the relatively warm-dry 1950s and again in the warm-wet 1980s, and were least in the cool-wet 1960s and 1970s. The distribution of WDs during 1950–89 appears positively related to the temporal fluctuations in cyclonic activity.     

TheoreticalPKIKP magnitude determination

Summary The estimation of the theoretical magnitude for deep foci based on the vertica component of medium-period PKIKP waves, Earth model PREM and source spectra is presented. The given graphs are valid for period T ranging from 1·6 s to 10 s, source depth of 25 km to 600 km and distance range of 16 500 km to 19 800 km. A simplified method of representing calibration curves is used.     

Meso-beta scale numerical simulations of terrain drag-induced along-stream circulations. Part II: Concentration of potential vorticity within dryline bulges

Summary Hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic simulation models are employed to study the intensification of a terrain drag-induced dryline. The study develops a multi-stage theory for the evolution of the dryline including the concentration of potential vorticity accompanying meso-gamma scale dryline bulges.The numerical simulations indicate three fundamental stages of dryline intensification all of which are either directly or indirectly a result of the terrain-drag on the mid/upper-tropospheric jet stream by the Front Range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. The first stage involves the downward momentum flux accompanying a large amplitude hydrostatic mountain wave which induces a downslope windstorm along the lee slopes. The surge of momentum (i.e., the dry, warm air associated with the downslope windstorm) propagates down the leeslope and modifies an existing weak dryline boundary. As the downslope windstorm initiates an undular bore along the lee slopes, the high momentum gradient which propagates downstream accompanying the bore, as well as the strong lower tropospheric sinking motions ahead of the bore, contract the scale of the surface moisture boundary between the dry air from above the leeslope and the moist air over the High Plains. This process further strengthens the dryline.The second stage involves the coupling of the terrain drag-induced along-stream ageostrophic front within the midtroposphere to the boundary layer through a thermally-indirect circulation. As the along-stream ageostrophic circulation intensifies within the middle troposphere down-stream from the mountain wave, sinking air parcels originating above 40 kPa descend to below 60 kPa over the High Plains where surface pressures are, only 85 kPa. These descending air parcels within the upstream branch of the along-stream ageostrophic thermally-indirect circulation contain high values of momentum and very low dewpoint values. As the planetary boundary layer (PBL) deepens due to surface warming during the morning hours, momentum and dry air from the midtropospheric along-stream ageostrophic front are entrained into the PBL. This process amplifies the bore-induced hydrostatic dryline bulge via low-level ageostrophic confluence.Finally, regions of low Richardson number (arising from strong vertical shears) within the amplifying midtropospheric along-stream ageostrophic thermally-indirect circulation become preferred regions for the development of non-hydrostatic evanescent internal gravity waves. These waves are embedded within the hydrostatic along-stream front above the low-level dryline and are accomapanied by very significant values of vertical momentum flux which act to focus the meso-gamma scale structure of the dryline into smaller scale bulges where low-level winds and vorticities are very high. This meso-gamma scale process follows the hydrostatic tilting and vortex tube stretching which creates meso-beta scale maxima of mid-lower tropospheric vorticity. The turbulent momentum fluxes accompanying wavebreaking within the nonhydrostatic dryline bulge create very large (i.e., stratospheric values of) potential vorticity near 70 kPa due to the nonconservation of potential vorticity on isentropic surfaces.With 30 Figures     

Synoptic diagnosis of frontogenetic and cyclogenetic processes

Summary In the paper it is shown that theQ-vector defined by Hoskins et al. is a suitable aid for the diagnosis of frontogenetic and cyclogenetic processes. It allows a direct estimation of frontogenetic (or frontolytic) effects within the geostrophic wind field and of the macro-scale forcing of vertical motions. A partitioning of the forcing is possible into one part depending on divergences along the frontal zone and working in short baroclinic waves, and another part connected with frontogenesis (or frontolysis) and causing circulatory motions around the frontal zone. Thus the intercorrelation between both processes can be easily studied.With the described cases it is demonstrated that frontogenetic circulations often lead to the first stages of cyclogenesis but that a further forcing of ascent predominantly ahead of an upper trough is necessary for a deepening of the low. Also during the mature and occlusion stage of cyclogenesis and within the downstream development of baroclinic waves frontogenetic (or frontolytic) circulations play an important role in the regime of vertical motions.With 11 Figures     

Age — heaping: contrasting patterns from china

Detailed examination of China's 1982 census data confirms that the standard of age reporting among the Han Chinese, and among many of the ethnic minorities, is very good. Furthermore the quality of age reporting is unaffected by large variations in levels of literacy which exist between men and women, between young and old, and between rural and urban areas. Much of the credit for the high quality of China's age reporting stems from the distinctive nature of Chinese traditional calendars. However, in the far west of China, in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, age heaping and age exaggeration are as bad as they are in many other developing countries. The authors show that the poor quality of age reporting in Xinjiang is confined to three of the region's ethnic communities, the Uygur, Kirgiz and Tajik, who appear to neither know, nor care, how old they are.     

Structure of the αFexAl1:xOOH solid solution

The three-dimensional local organisation around Fe atoms in a natural diaspore (Al_0.9955Fe_0.0045OOH) has been investigated by angular measurements of X-ray absorption spectra. It is demonstrated that in a single crystal of diaspore, the absorption cross-section exhibits the special case of trichroism where three independent measurements are needed to determine the absorption cross-section for any direction of polarization. Extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectra were thus recorded at the following orientations of the polarization vector: , , and . The incoming white beam was monochromatized using two Si(331) crystals, which deliver at the Fe K-edge a completely linearly polarized X-ray beam. The reliability of our measurements was checked by comparing the isotropic EXAFS spectrum calculated from the three orthogonal measurements to the one of the diaspore powder recorded at the magic angle. It is shown that Fe³⁺ ions are not randomly distributed within the diaspore framework. Furthermore, only part of the Fe³⁺ ions substitutes Al, the others being located in the channels of the structure. The 3D local structure of the Fe domains has been modeled assuming hematite-like clusters of three Fe octahedra topotactically grafted to aluminous chains. These Fe clusters are thought to represent ancient multinuclear Fe surface complexes having formed at the time of the diaspore growth, and being sealed in its bulk structure. The whole crystal of diaspore is then thought to have kept the memory of the heterogeneous nucleation mechanism of these hematite nuclei. In addition to the well-known examples of atom segregations, ion vacancies, and intergrowths of discrete phases, this new type of crystal defect represents another evidence of non-equilibrium crystallization process under the thermodynamic and kinetic conditions that prevail at the earth's surface.     

TREK: A cosmic-ray experiment on the Russian space station MIR

The goals of the TREK experiment, now in place on the MIR Space Station, are to resolve and measure the composition of both odd-Z and even-Z cosmic-ray nuclei up to uranium, to measure the isotopic composition of Fe-group nuclei, and to search for transuranic nucleic and exotic particles such as strangelets. To collect tracks of ultraheavy cosmic rays, exterior panels holding an array of BP-1 phosphate glass 1.2m² in area and 16 plates thick are now mounted outside the Kvant-2 module on MIR. Heaters and relays regulate the temperature of the glass at 25°±5°C. The detectors will record 10³ cosmic-ray tracks withZ50 during 2.5 years. An interior panel consisting of an array 0.09 m² in area and 32 plates thick and mounted on the inside wall of the Soyuz spacecraft (attached to the Space Station) will collect tracks of about 13000 Fe and 500 Ni nuclei.     

Geographical and economic determinants of interregional migration in the USSR, 1968-1985

"Interregional migration results in a regional redistribution of labor, essential under the current mismatch between the locations of labor and of natural resources and industrial capacity in the USSR. This study focuses on economic and geographical determinants of destination choice of migrants from 1968 through 1985. Particular emphasis is placed upon the relative effects of economic variables and quality of life factors and on the effect of gravity variables (i.e., distance and population size). The statistically significant results for the economic and gravity variables indicate the appropriateness of using Western theories to analyze migration in the Soviet context."     

Evolution of helically twisted prominence structures of March 11, 1979

Helical structures are generally associated with many eruptive solar prominences. Thus, study of their evolution in the solar atmosphere assumes importance. We present a study of a flare-associated erupting prominence of March 11, 1979, with conspicuous helically twisted structure, observed in H line center. We have attempted to understand the role played by twisted force-free magnetic fields in this event. In the analysis, we have assumed that the helical structures visible in H outline the field lines in which prominence tubes are embedded. Untwisting of observed prominence tubes and later, formation of open prominence structures provide evidence of restructuring of the magnetic field configuration over the active region during the course of prominence eruption. Temporal evolution of the force-free parameter is obtained for two main prominence tubes observed to be intertwined in a rope-like structure. Axial electric currents associated with the prominence tubes are estimated to be of the order of 10¹¹ A which decreased with time. Correspondingly, it is estimated that the rate of energy release was 10²⁸ erg s^–1 during the prominence eruption.