Measures of Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Estimation and Geostatistical Optimal Design

Studies of site exploration, data assimilation, or geostatistical inversion measure parameter uncertainty in order to assess the optimality of a suggested scheme. This study reviews and discusses measures for parameter uncertainty in spatial estimation. Most measures originate from alphabetic criteria in optimal design and were transferred to geostatistical estimation. Further rather intuitive measures can be found in the geostatistical literature, and some new measures will be suggested in this study. It is shown how these measures relate to the optimality alphabet and to relative entropy. Issues of physical and statistical significance are addressed whenever they arise. Computational feasibility and efficient ways to evaluate the above measures are discussed in this paper, and an illustrative synthetic case study is provided. A major conclusion is that the mean estimation variance and the averaged conditional integral scale are a powerful duo for characterizing conditional parameter uncertainty, with direct correspondence to the well-understood optimality alphabet. This study is based on cokriging generalized to uncertain mean and trends because it is the most general representative of linear spatial estimation within the Bayesian framework. Generalization to kriging and quasi-linear schemes is straightforward. Options for application to non-Gaussian and non-linear problems are discussed.     

Formation Mechanism of Mud Bank Along the Southwest Coast of India

Mud bank formation during the southwest monsoon along the southwest coast of India remains an enigma to the researchers and coastal community in spite of several earlier studies. The present study attempts to unravel the mystery through a high-frequency, season-long time-series observation at Alappuzha, located at the southern part of the west coast of India, a region of frequent occurrence of mud bank. Using 7-month-long weekly time-series observation, we identified strong winds and high waves associated with onset of the southwest monsoon and subsequent three episodic atmospheric low-pressure events (LPEs).With the help of in situ time-series data, we show that the strong winds and high waves associated with southwest monsoon pre-conditions the near shore bottom sediment to bring it into suspension. The high amplitude waves associated with the southwest monsoon, while propagating from the deep water to shallow water region, interact with the bottom initiating bottom-sediment movement and its suspension due to wave refraction and shoaling. The sporadic occurrence of the atmospheric LPEs enhances the process of suspension of bottom sediment in the near shore region leading to the formation of fluid mud. Simulations with a cohesive sediment transport model yielded realistic estimates of sediment transport, in the presence of an onshore current, a pre-requisite for transporting the fluid mud toward the coast. The prevailing onshore upwelling current during the southwest monsoon provides the favorable pre-requisite conditions for transporting the fluid mud through depression channel network towards the coast. Once sufficient quantity and thickness of fluid mud is accumulated in the near shore region, it acts as a wave damper for subsequent high monsoon waves, as indicated by the time-series wave data, leading to the formation of tranquil mud bank region. Depression channel networks extending from the shelf to the coast off Alappuzha, Kochi, Ponnani, Beypore, and Ullal were found in the bathymetric charts, thus explaining why mud banks occur only at few locations in spite of the prevalence of similar monsoon conditions.     

Platinum-group elements in alpine-type ultramafic rocks and related chromite ores of the main ophiolite belt of the Urals

On the basis of a representative collection of ultramafic rocks and chromite ores and a series of technological samples from the largest (Central and Western) deposits in the Rai-Iz massif of the Polar Urals and the Almaz-Zhemchuzhina and Poiskovy deposits in the Kempirsai massif of the southern Urals, the distribution and speciation of platinum-group elements (PGE) in various type sections of mafic-ultramafic massifs of the Main ophiolite belt of the Urals have been studied. Spectral-chemical and spectrophotometric analyses were carried out to estimate PGE in 700 samples of ultramafic rocks and chromite ores; 400 analyses of minerals from rocks, ores, and concentrates and 100 analyses of PGE minerals (PGM) in chromite ores and concentrates were performed using an electron microprobe. Near-chondritic and nonchondritic PGE patterns in chromitebearing sections have been identified. PGE mineralization has been established to occur in chromite ore from all parts of the mafic-ultramafic massifs in the Main ophiolite belt of the Urals. The PGE deposits and occurrences discovered therein are attributed to four types (Kraka, Kempirsai, Nurali-Upper Neiva, and Shandasha), which are different in mode of geological occurrence, geochemical specialization, and placer-forming capability. Fluid-bearing minerals of the pargasite-edenite series have been identified for the first time in the matrix of chromite ore of the Kempirsai massif (the Almaz-Zhemchuzhina deposit) and Voikar-Syn’ya massif (the Kershor deposit). The PGE grade in various types of chromite ore ranges from 0.1–0.2 to 1–2 g/t or higher. According to technological sampling, the average PGE grade in the largest deposits of the southeastern ore field of the Kempirsai massif is 0.5–0.7 g/t. Due to the occurrence of most PGE as PGM 10–100 mm in size and the proved feasibility of their recovery into nickel alloys, chromites of the Kempirsai massif can be considered a complex ore with elevated and locally high Os, Ir, and Ru contents. The Nurali-Upper Neiva type of ore is characterized by small-sized primary deposits, which nevertheless are the main source of large Os-Ir placers in the Miass and Nev’yansk districts of the southern and central Urals, respectively.     

Geotechnical assessment of the bearing capacity of coal mine floors

Summary This investigation concerns 3 longwall faces having variable strata and mining conditions, but supported by 202 tonnes hydraulic 6-leg chocks. Bearing capacity tests along the faces were conducted to evaluate the factors influencing floor deformation and failure. The effect of size, shape and perimeter of the base plates, thickness of the floor layer, time and moisture on the ultimate bearing capacity of the floor was measured and discussed. Application of this work is the prediction of stability and support performance of face ends, as well as the design of support systems and ground control on production faces.     

Possible representation for discovery observations of stellar flares

It is shown that the chronology of flare star discoveries in the Pleiades cluster and the Orion association can be described satisfactorily by various distribution functions (gamma, binomial, decreasing exponential, and delta) for the mean frequencies of stellar flares. However, it has been found that this is due to the uncertainty in the observationally derived distribution function for the mean frequency of stellar flares. The most likely function is that derived by Ambartsumian, which has a physical basis.Translated fromAstrofizika, Vol. 38, No. 1, pp. 25–32, January–March, 1995.     

Geochemical correlations between effusive and explosive silicic volcanics in the Saraykent region (Yozgat), central Anatolia,Turkey

Two main volcanic events are distinguished between Saraykent and Akçakışla in the Yozgat province of central Anatolia: (1) early Late Cretaceous–Palaeocene effusive activity, that produced a sequence of intermediate to felsic ‘basal lavas’; and (2) marginally later Palaeocene explosive activity that formed a series of covering ignimbrite flows. Due to their close temporal and spatial relation, geochemical comparisons were made between the silicic members of the lavas and ignimbrites, to identify chemical groups and their relative petrogenesis. The basal lavas range from calc‐alkaline basaltic andesites to dominant rhyolites. Based on trace element correlations three main geochemical groups were identified: the Akçakışla rhyolites (present as domes); Akçakışla rhyodacites‐dacites (lava flows); and Ozan‐Saraykent rhyolites (lava flows). Large‐ion lithophile elements have been mobile in all the groups, but mainly in the Akçakışla rhyolites. Rare earth element (REE) patterns show marked similarity between the Ozan and Saraykent basal lavas. The Akçakışla dome rhyolites are more fractionated with lower La_N/Yb_N ratios (c.10), whereas the Akçakışla basal lavas have much higher La_N/Yb_N ratios (c.30). The chemical coherence and petrographic similarities between the Saraykent and Ozan lavas suggest a single suite related via fractionation. Three geochemical groups were also established for the ignimbrites: Saraykent ignimbrite; Bağlıca ignimbrite‐Toklu‐Kızıldağ crystal tuffs; and Keklikpınar ignimbrite. The ignimbrites, like the basal lavas, display a pronounced depletion in Ba on ORG‐normalized plots. Relative to the basal lavas, chondrite‐normalized patterns for the ignimbrites are different in displaying negative Eu anomalies that indicate feldspar fractionation. The lack of geochemical overlap or coherence between any of the lava and ignimbrite groups suggests that they represent distinct eruptive events and are not related in any simple volcanic development and cogenetic sense. Two geochemical features are common to all the volcanic rock groups: (1) the presence of a Nb‐Ta anomaly, which is generally accepted as a crustal signature; and (2) the relatively low Y abundances which appear characteristic for the region as a whole. These fundamental features of the local silicic volcanism largely reflect source composition and effects. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of mutations in the p53 tumor suppressor gene and Ki- and Ha-ras proto-oncogenes in hepatic tumors of European flounder (Platichthys flesus).

DNA from five tumors, three other-injured livers and two normal liver tissue samples from the European flounder were analyzed for mutations in exons 5-8 of the tumor suppressor gene p53 and at codons 12, 13 and 61 of Ha- and Ki-ras proto-oncogenes. No tumor-specific mutations were identified by direct sequencing and single-strand conformation polymorphism of these genes. A number of silent polymorphisms were noted in p53. In addition to a need for more extensive analyses of flounder liver tumor samples for ras or p53 mutations, other cancer-related genes should be investigated.     

Expression of putative zinc-finger protein lcn61 gene in lymphocystis disease virus China （LCDV-cn） genome

An open reading frame (lcn61) of lymphocystis disease virus China (LCDV-cn), probably responsible for encoding putative zinc-finger proteins was amplified and inserted into pET24a (+) vector. Then it expressed in E. coli BL21 (DE3), and His-tag fusion protein of high yield was obtained. It was found that the fusion protein existed in E. coli mainly as inclusion bodies. The bioinformatics analysis indicates that LCN61 is C2H2 type zinc-finger protein containing four C2H2 zinc-finger motifs. This work provides a theory for functional research of lcn61 gene. Supported by High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, No. 2006AA100309)