Estimation of uncertainties in eigenspectral estimates from decaying geophysical time series

Summary. The response of many dynamical systems to an impulse is a linear combination of decaying cosines. The frequencies of the cosines have generally been estimated in geophysics by periodogram analysis and little formal indication of uncertainty has been provided. This work presents an estimation procedure by the methods of complex demodulation and nonlinear regression that specifically incorporates in the basic model the decaying aspect of the cosines (periodogram analysis does not). The use of plots of the instantaneous phase as a function of time is shown to greatly enhance resolution. Expressions for the variances of eigenfrequencies, amplitudes, phases and damping constants Q are derived by non-linear least-squares. The results are illustrated, for the problem of the free oscillations of the Earth, by computations with the record made at Trieste of the Chilean earthquake of 1960 May 22. Sample values are periods and standard errors of 737.79 ± 0.13 s, 506.25 ± 0.13 s and 429.60 ± 0.14 s for ₀ T ₈, ₀ T ₁₃ and ₀ T ₁₆ with Q values and standard errors of 200 ± 14, 230 ± 28 and 215 ± 30, respectively.     

Observations of the structure and evolution of solar flares with a soft X-ray telescope

132 soft X-ray flare events have been observed with The Aerospace Corporation/Marshall Space Flight Center S-056 X-ray telescope that was part of the ATM complement of instruments aboard Skylab. Analyses of these data are reported in this paper. The observations are summarized and a detailed discussion of the X-ray flare structures is presented. The data indicated that soft X-rays emitted by a flare come primarily from an intense well-defined core surrounded by a region of fainter, more diffuse emission. Loop structures are found to constitute a fundamental characteristic of flare cores and arcades of loops are found to play a more important role in the flare phenomena than previously thought. Size distributions of these core features are presented and a classification scheme describing the brightest flare X-ray features is proposed. The data show no correlations between the size of core features and: (1) the peak X-ray intensity, as indicated by detectors on the SOLRAD satellite; (2) the rise time of the X-ray flare event, or (3) the presence of a nonthermal X-ray component. An analysis of flare evolution indicates evidence for preliminary heating and energy release prior to the main phase of the flare. Core features are found to be remarkably stable and retain their shape throughout a flare. Most changes in the overall configuration seem to be the result of the appearance, disappearance or change in brightness of individual features, rather than the restructuring or re-orientation of these features. Brief comparisons with several theories are presented.     

The First Results of U–Pb Isotope Dating of Detrital Zircons from the Upper Mesoproterozoic Gulliksenfellet Quartzite (Southern Part of Wedel Jarlsberg Land,Southwest Spitsbergen)

The first results of U–Pb isotopic dating (LA–ICP–MS) of detrital zircons from metasedimentary rocks of the pre-Devonian basement of the SW part of western Spitsbergen (from Upper Mezoproterozoic Gulliksenfellet quartzite) showed ages ranging from 1700 ± 25 to 2948 ± 27 Ma.     

Stellar α Elements Abundance Gradient in M33

In previous papers we have published preliminary results on the stellar oxygen-abundance gradient in M33 by using B-type supergiants. In the present study, we include one new B-supergiant and derive effective temperatures and gravities for these stars. The determination of atmospheric parameters is based on analyses of silicon ionisation balance. Detailed non-LTE model atmospheres and non-LTE line formation calculations were used for the abundance determination of Si and O. Careful differential analyses are used to quantify the differences in metal abundances between M33 stars and MK spectral standards in our Galaxy. We compare our results with the abundances expected from studies of HII regions. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Understanding the surface hydrology of the Lake Eyre Basin: Part 1—Rainfall

This is the first of two papers that describe the surface hydrology of the Lake Eyre Basin (LEB) (1,140,000 km²) in central Australia and compares some key characteristics with those observed from arid regions globally. This paper concentrates on annual rainfall, whereas the second paper is devoted to streamflow. The first part describes the LEB's climate (arid to semi-arid), which is dominated by a subtropical high pressure ridge stretching latitudinally across central Australia. Then follow major analyses that include the characteristics of rainfall, wet and dry spell lengths and cumulative surpluses and deficiencies, rainfall trends and intra- and inter-decadal fluctuations, and the relationship between rainfall and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The paper concludes with six conclusions, the key ones being: the variability of the annual rainfall (based on the coefficient of variation) in the LEB is approximately 60% greater than that found for stations located in arid regions in the rest of the world; there is a bias towards longer lengths of dry years than observed in the rest of Australia; and, there is a significant lag correlation between rainfall and ENSO, particularly in the east and in the latter part of a year.