On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.     

Towards medium-term (order of months) morphodynamic modelling of the Teign estuary, UK

The main objective of this paper is to address the principal mechanisms involved in the medium-term (order of months to years) morphodynamic evolution of estuaries through the application of a process-based numerical modelling. The Teign estuary (Teignmouth, UK) is the selected site. The system is forced by the macrotidal semi-diurnal tide in the English Channel and is perturbed to a minor extent by high river discharge events (freshets). Although waves have a definite influence on the adjacent coastal area, Wells (Teignmouth Quay Development Environmental Statement: Changes to Physical Processes. Report R.984c:140. ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd., Southampton, 2002b) suggested that swell waves do not enter the estuary. Hence, wave effects are neglected in this study, as only tides and the river discharge are taken into account. The sediment grain size is highly variable, but mainly sandy. Within the frame of the COAST3D project (), four bathymetric surveys of the adjacent coastal area were carried out at a nearly weekly intervals. The outer estuary and the adjacent coastal area were also surveyed every 6 months as part of the COASTVIEW project (). Based on these data and on continuously measured parameters, such as water level, waves, wind and river discharge, numerical modelling of the morphodynamic processes can be tested. To replicate the morphological changes in the medium-term within a feasible simulation time, forcing conditions are reduced through the use of an input reduction method (called ensemble technique). In this study, simulations are based on the coupling between Telemac-2D and its non-cohesive sediment transport module, Sisyphe (version 5.3 for both modules). Three different sediment transport formulae were tested: (1) Engelund and Hansen (A monograph on sediment transport in alluvial streams, 3rd edn. Technological University of Denmark, Copenhagen, 1967) including the modifications proposed by Chollet and Cunge (J Hydraul Eng 17(1):1–13, 1979); (2) Bijker (Mechanics of sediment transport by the combination of waves and current. In: Design and reliability of coastal structures. 23rd international conference on Coastal Engineering, pp 147–173, 1968) and (3) Soulsby (Dynamics of Marine Sands. A manual for practical applications. HR Wallingford, Wallingford, p 142, 1997) modified version of van Rijn [J Hydraul Eng 110(10):1431–1456, 1984a, J Hydraul Eng 110(11):1613–1641, 1984b] formulation. Both a qualitative (i.e. visual comparison) and a quantitative tool [Brier Skill Score (BSS); described in Sutherland et al. in Coast Eng 51:917–939, 2004b] are applied to assess the similarity of simulations when compared to model predictions and observations. Tests confirmed the reliability and time efficiency of the ensemble technique, since it reproduced very well the results of a reference run, a computation based on the observed boundary conditions. For the spring-neap cycle modelled, the BSS was of 0.91 (a perfect modelling would have a BSS of 1), with a reduction in the simulation time on the order of 80%. For the 6-month-period simulation, results were also excellent: BSS=0.92 and a computer time reduction of 85%. In principle, this method has the advantage of being applied to any process-based numerical model.     

Studies of temperature effects of dust storms

We studied the temperature variations of the lower air layer caused by dust content using a dust storm in Dushanbe in November 2007 as an example. Quantitative estimates of air cooling and a decrease in the diurnal temperature difference due to a diminishing horizontal visibility range are given. Observations of air temperature variations due to the dust content of the atmosphere in an arid zone are presented. The critical value of aerosol concentration for toggling between the greenhouse and antigreenhouse effects is determined. The long-term effect of dust aerosol on climate is analyzed.     

New data on paleontological characteristic of the Oligocene in the Il’pinskii Peninsula, northeastern Kamchatka

Fossil diatom algae first found in the Paleogene marine succession (Alugivayam Formation) of the Il’pinskii Peninsula, northeastern Kamchatka are studied, and new data on molluscan assemblages from the same sequences are presented. Some of the diatom forms identified suggest the Oligocene age of their host deposits. This is consistent with earlier inference from benthic groups of marine organisms.     

Jinshanjiangite and bafertisite from the Gremyakha-Vyrmes Alkaline Complex,Kola Peninsula

Jinshanjiangite (acicular crystals up to 2 mm in length) and bafertisite (lamellar crystals up to 3 × 4 mm in size) have been found in alkali granite pegmatite of the Gremyakha-Vyrmes Complex, Kola Peninsula. Albite, microcline, quartz, arfvedsonite, zircon, and apatite are associated minerals. The dimensions of a monoclinic unit cell of jinshanjiangite and bafertisite are: a = 10.72(2), b=13.80(2), c = 20.94(6) Å, β = 97.0(5)° and a = 10.654(6), b = 13.724(6), c = 10.863(8) Å, β = 94.47(8)°, respectively. The typical compositions (electron microprobe data) of jinshanjiangite and bafertisite are: (Na_0.57Ca_0.44)_Σ1.01(Ba_0.57K_0.44)_Σ1.01 (Fe_3.53Mn_0.30Mg_0.04Zn_0.01)_Σ3.88(Ti_1.97Nb_0.06Zr_0.01)_Σ2.04(Si_3.97Al_0.03O₁₄)O_2.00(OH_2.25F_0.73O_0.02)_Σ3.00 and (Ba_1.98Na_0.04K_0.03)_Σ2.05(Fe_3.43Mn_0.37Mg_0.03)_Σ3.83(Ti_2.02Nb_0.03)_Σ2.05 (Si_3.92Al_0.08O₁₄)(O_1.84OH_0.16)_Σ2.00(OH_2.39F_1.61)_Σ3.00, respectively. The minerals studied are the Fe-richest members of the bafertisite structural family.     

A very large scale GIS-based groundwater flow model for the Nubian sandstone aquifer in Eastern Sahara (Egypt,northern Sudan and eastern Libya)

A three-dimensional GIS-based groundwater flow model for the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer in the eastern Sahara was developed and calibrated under steady-state and transient conditions. The model was used to simulate the response of the aquifer to climatic changes that occurred during the last 25,000 years. The simulation results indicated that the groundwater in this aquifer was formed by infiltration during the wet periods 20,000 and 5,000 years b.p. The recharge of groundwater due to regional groundwater flow from more humid areas in the south was excluded. It also indicates that the Nubian Aquifer System is a fossil aquifer, which had been in an unsteady state condition for the last 3,000 years.

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Resumen Fue desarrollado un modelo de flujo de agua subterránea en tres dimensiones, basado en un SIG, para el Acuífero Arenisca Nubian en el Sahara Oriental, el cual fue calibrado para condiciones de estado estacionario y transitorio. El modelo se usó para simular la respuesta del acuífero a los cambios climáticos que ocurrieron durante los últimos 25000 años. Los resultados de esta simulación indicaron que el agua subterránea en este acuífero, se formó por infiltración, durante los períodos húmedos que hubo hace 20000 y 5000 años, antes del presente. Fue excluida la recarga del acuífero debida a un flujo regional de agua subterránea proveniente de áreas con un clima más húmedo en el sur. El modelo también muestra, que el Sistema Acuífero Nubian es un acuífero fósil, el cual ha permanecido en una condición de estado no estacionario, durante los últimos tres mil años.

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Résumé Pour laquifère gréseux Nubien de Sahara -Est on a mis au points un modèle tridimensionnel, basé sur GIS. Le modèle a été calibré tant pour lécoulement stationnaire que pour lécoulement transitoire. On a simulé après la réponse de laquifère aux changements climatiques des derniers 25000 ans. Les résultats des simulations indiquent que la nappe a été rechargée par des infiltrations pendant une période humide qui sétend 5000 et 20000 ans, dès temps actuel. On na pas pris en compte la recharge de laquifère par la zone plus humide située dans sa partie sud. Le modèle indique aussi que leau de laquifère Nubien est une eau fossile qui a eu un écoulement transitoire pendant les derniers 3000 ans.

     

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Ionospheric Scintillation and Dynamics of Fresnel-Scale Irregularities in the Inner Region of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly

This paper reports differences in the occurrence statistics of global positioning system (GPS) L-band scintillations at observational sites located in the inner regions of the northern and southern crests of the equatorial ionization anomaly. Ground-based GPS data acquired at the closed magnetically aligned stations of Manaus (3.1°S; 59.9°W; dip lat. 6.2°N) and Cuiabá (15.5°S; 56.1°W; dip. lat. 6.2°S), Brazil, from December 2001 to February 2007 are used in the analysis. The drift dynamics of Fresnel-scale ionospheric irregularities at the southern station of Cuiabá are also investigated. Only geomagnetically quiet days with the sum of daily Kp < 24 were used in the analysis statistics and in the irregularity drift studies. The results reveal a clear dependence of the scintillation occurrence with the solar activity, but there exists an asymmetry in the percentage of scintillation occurrence between the two stations throughout the period analyzed. The nocturnal occurrence of the scintillations over Cuiabá is predominantly larger than over Manaus, but this scenario seems to change with the decline in the solar activity (mainly during local post-midnight hours). A broad minimum and maximum in the scintillation occurrence appears to occur over both the stations, respectively, during the June solstice (winter) and December solstice (summer) months. The dynamics of the Fresnel-scale irregularities, as investigated from the estimations of the mean zonal drift velocities, reveals that the amplitude of the eastward drifts tends to reduce with the decline in the solar activity. The magnitude of the zonal drift velocities during the December solstice months is larger than during the equinoxes, with the differences being more pronounced at solar maximum years. Other relevant aspects of the observations, with complementary data from a low-latitude ionospheric model, are highlighted and discussed.