TRACKING THE BABY BOOM,THE BABY BUST,AND THE ECHO GENERATIONS: HOW AGE COMPOSITION REGULATES US MIGRATION*

US regional and state migration data from the 1940s–80s, when members of the baby boom generation aged into their years of peak labor force mobility, suggest ways in which changing age composition regulates geographical mobility and interregional migration. Labor supply pressure plays a key role in the dynamics of the national migration system. A “delayed mobility” effect in the 1980s similar to the delayed fertility of the baby boom cohorts appears to be a result of the depressed rates of mobility experienced by members of this generation when they flooded regional labor markets with record numbers of entrants in the 1970s. Recent temporal shifts in age-specific volumes of interregional migration help predict the future pace of migration based upon the projected age distribution of the nation.     

Saturation of groundwaters with respect to minerals of the host rocks

Calculations of the saturation of groundwaters with respect to minerals of the rocks hosting these waters indicate that most of the analyzed groundwaters were saturates with respect to calcite, dolomite, and quartz. Brines of chloride-calcic composition were determined to be saturated with respect to calcite, whereas brines of chloride-sodic composition are saturated with respect to dolomite and quartz. The solution was simultaneously saturated with respect to six minerals for the association ankerite-calcite-dolomite-pyrite-quartz-strontianite. An increase in the number of minerals with respect to which solution is saturated is correlated with an increase in the diversity of types of groundwaters and an increase in the runoff rate. The paper proposes possible avenues for searches for relations between hydrogeological and geochemical parameters that make it possible to adapt the thermodynamic models to real geological-hydrogeological conditions. The research was centered on the testing of groundwaters for their saturation with respect to minerals of the rocks hosting these waters. This parameter plays a significant part in forming the geochemical type of natural waters because it reflects the crystallization of a mineral from a solution and, consequently, the removal of an element from the aqueous solution.     

Measurements of radio noise at 0.700 mc and 2.200 mc from a high-altitude rocket probe

Radio noise observations at frequencies of 0·700 Mc and 2·200 Mc were made at altitudes between 3000 and 11,000 km from a Blue Scout Jr. high-altitude rocket probe on 30 July 1963. A steady background flux of (7·5₋₃⁺⁶) × 10⁻¹⁹ W m⁻²)(c/s)⁻¹ at 0·700 Mc and (1·8^+1.0_−0.5 × 10⁻¹⁹ W m⁻² (c/s)⁻¹ at 2·200 Mc was observed. Assuming a galactic origin of the observed fluxes at both frequencies, the averaged sky brightnesses are b(0·700 Mc) = (6₋₃⁺⁵) × 10⁻²⁰ W m⁻² (c/s)⁻¹ sr⁻¹b(2·200 Mc) = (1.4^+1.0_−0.5 × 10⁻²⁰ W m⁻² (c/s)⁻¹ sr⁻¹ The observed brightness at 2·200 Mc is in reasonable agreement with the results of other observers. The apparent brightness at 0·700 Mc is, however, greater than was expected from previous observations. An alternative source of the 0·700 Mc flux in the terrestrial exosphere, as well as characteristics of several noise bursts observed during the flight, is briefly discussed.     

BIBLIOGRAPHIE

Abstract

Time series modelling approaches are useful tools for simulating and forecasting hydrological variables and their change through time. Although linear time series models are common in hydrology, the nonlinear time series model, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, has rarely been used in hydrology and water resources engineering. The GARCH model considers the conditional variance remaining in the residuals of the linear time series models, such as an ARMA or an ARIMA model. In the present study, the advantages of a GARCH model against a linear ARIMA model are investigated using three classes of the GARCH approach, namely Power GARCH, Threshold GARCH and Exponential GARCH models. A daily streamflow time series of the Matapedia River, Quebec, Canada, is selected for this study. It is shown that the ARIMA (13,1,4) model is adequate for modelling streamflow time series of Matapedia River, but the Engle test shows the existence of heteroscedasticity in the residuals of the ARIMA model. Therefore, an ARIMA (13,1,4)-GARCH (3,1) error model is fitted to the data. The residuals of this model are examined for the existence of heteroscedasticity. The Engle test indicates that the GARCH model has considerably reduced the heteroscedasticity of the residuals. However, the Exponential GARCH model seems to completely remove the heteroscedasticity from the residuals. The multi-criteria evaluation for model performance also proves that the Exponential GARCH model is the best model among ARIMA and GARCH models. Therefore, the application of a GARCH model is strongly suggested for hydrological time series modelling as the conditional variance of the residuals of the linear models can be removed and the efficiency of the model will be improved.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Modarres, R. and Ouarda, T.B.M.J., 2013. Modelling heteroscedasticty of streamflow times series. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–11.     

Transport and retention of suspended particulate matter and bacteria in the Humber-Ouse Estuary, United Kingdom, and their relationship to hypoxia and anoxia

Data are presented on dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations and their relationship to salinity, suspended particulate matter (SPM), concentrations, and the turbidity maximum in the Humber-Ouse Estuary, United Kingdom, during summer 1995. Measurements in the upper Humber during March 1995 showed DO in the range 82% to 87% of saturation. Suspended particulate matter concentrations were <5000 mg l^?1 and salinity was in the range 0.5 to 12. In contrast, a pronounced DO sag occurred in the upper reaches of the Ouse during medium and spring tide, summer conditions. The DO minimum was essentially an anoxic level and was associated with the location of the turbidity maximum, at salinities between about 0.4 and 1.5. SPM concentrations at 1 m beneath the surface reached 25,000 mg l^?1 in the turbidity maximum, between about 20 km and 40 km from the tidal limit. Suspended particulate matter concentrations were much lower at neap tides, although dense suspensions of SPM (>60,000 mg l^?1) occurred within 1 m of the bed in the turbidity maximum region. A spring-neap record showed a dramatic and tidally controlled decrease in DO at very low salinities as the tides progressed from neaps to springs. An anchor station located down-channel of the turbidity maximum showed that about 95% of the variance in DO, which varied from 28% at low-water slack to 67% at high-water slack, could be explained in terms of salinity variation. At the up-channel margins of the turbidity maximum, DO increased from zero (anoxia) near high water to 60% near low water slack, in contrast to the behavior down-channel of the turbidity maximum. About 82% of the variance in DO could be explained in terms of salinity variations alone. Only 43% of the DO variance could be explained in terms of SPM alone. Up-channel of the turbidity maximum, SPM concentrations were relatively low (<3000 mg l^?1) and DO levels varied from 48% of saturation near high water to 83% near low water slack. About 76% of the variance in DO could be explained in terms of salinity variations alone. Within the turbidity maximum region, DO varied from <2% saturation on the early flood and late ebb and maximized around 7% at high water slack. About 63% of the variance in DO could be explained in terms of salinity variation alone. This increased to 70% when suspended particulate matter was taken into account. Only 29% of the DO variance could be explained in terms of suspended particulate matter alone. Because bacteria were likely to have been the cause of the observed reduction in DO, the numbers of bacteria, both free-living and attached to particles, were measured in the turbidity maximum region. Numbers of free-living bacteria were low and most of the bacteria were attached to sediment particles. There was a linear correlation between total bacterial number and suspended particulate matter concentration, suggesting that the strong DO demand was exerted locally as a result of bacterial activity associated with increased suspended particulate matter concentrations. An order of magnitude analysis of DO consumption within the Ouse’s turbidity maximum, based on the premise that DO depletion was directly related to suspended particulate matter concentrations and that DO addition was due to reaeration, indicates that complete deoxygenation could have occurred with an oxygen depletion rate of ～0.01 mg DO h^?1/g suspended particulate matter during the residence time of waters within the turbidity maximum (～7 d). This rate was sufficiently fast that anoxic to aerobic conditions were able to develop a spring-neap periodicity within the turbidity maximum, but too slow to generate substantial intratidal fluctuations in DO. This is in accordance with the observations, which show that relatively little of the intratidal variance in DO could be explained in terms of suspended particulate matter fluctuations, whereas most of the variance could be explained in terms of salinity, which behaved as a surrogate measure for the proximity of the turbidity maximum.     

A portable extruder for accurate and precise high-resolution subsampling of unconsolidated sediment cores

Journal of Paleolimnology - We developed a portable extruder for precise and accurate high-resolution subsampling of unconsolidated sediment cores. This extruder is capable of producing subsamples...     

First Data on the Isotopic Age of Zircons from Rocks of the Roseta Ultramafic Massif,Southern Margin of the São Francisco Craton (Brazil)

Doklady Earth Sciences - The results of isotope U–Pb dating of zircons from lherzolite and vein olivine orthopyroxenite composing the Roseta ultramafic massif are presented. The zircons...