Improving multimodel weather forecast of monsoon rain over China using FSU superensemble

In this paper we present the current capabilities for numerical weather prediction of precipitation over China using a suite of ten multimodels and our superensemble based forecasts. Our suite of models includes the operational suite selected by NCARs TIGGE archives for the THORPEX Program. These are: ECMWF, UKMO, JMA, NCEP, CMA, CMC, BOM, MF, KMA and the CPTEC models. The superensemble strategy includes a training and a forecasts phase, for these the periods chosen for this study include the months February through September for the years 2007 and 2008. This paper addresses precipitation forecasts for the medium range i.e. Days 1 to 3 and extending out to Day 10 of forecasts using this suite of global models. For training and forecasts validations we have made use of an advanced TRMM satellite based rainfall product. We make use of standard metrics for forecast validations that include the RMS errors, spatial correlations and the equitable threat scores. The results of skill forecasts of precipitation clearly demonstrate that it is possible to obtain higher skills for precipitation forecasts for Days 1 through 3 of forecasts from the use of the multimodel superensemble as compared to the best model of this suite. Between Days 4 to 10 it is possible to have very high skills from the multimodel superensemble for the RMS error of precipitation. Those skills are shown for a global belt and especially over China. Phenomenologically this product was also found very useful for precipitation forecasts for the Onset of the South China Sea monsoon, the life cycle of the mei-yu rains and post typhoon landfall heavy rains and flood events. The higher skills of the multimodel superensemble make it a very useful product for such real time events.     

格尔木-拉萨成品油管道沿线冻土工程和环境问题及其防治对策

格尔木拉萨成品油管线穿越青藏高原腹地多年冻土区,沿线气候严寒、冻土工程地质条件复杂.几十年来,气候变暖和人类活动已经对管道沿线的冻土环境产生了显著影响.总结了自运营以来格拉管道出现的冻土工程问题及管道沿线的生态环境问题,并就各种问题给出了相关措施和建议.同时,提出了该区管道建设和寒区环境研究的方向应包括加强管道内外检测、对管道进行风险评价、提高管道自动化管理水平、建立冻土长期监测体系以及保护沿线的生态环境等.     

Mean Kinematic Characteristics of Synoptic Easterly Disturbances over the Atlantic

This study investigates the mean kinematic characteristics of the tropical Atlantic easterly disturbances in January-March(JFM),April-June(AMJ),July-September(JAS)and October-December(OND)from 1968-1998.For each season,the preferential tracks of these disturbances in the 3-10-day band periods were computed and spatialized,as well as their associated wavelength,velocity and main period,which lies between 3-5 days and between 6-9 days depending on the track and the season. Two main tracks are highlighted over the Atlantic Ocean.During OND and JFM these two tracks are well separated and located in each hemisphere around 15°S and 12.5°N.From AMJ to JAS these tracks migrate northward;in JAS,they merge into one over the northern tropical Atlantic along 17.5°N.The associated wavelength fields exhibit a meridional gradient,with large wavelengths(greater than 4000 km) around the equator,between 5°N and 5°S,and smaller wavelengths outside of this latitude band(between 2500-3500 km).The phase speed is also found to exhibit poleward decreasing values from 12-6 m s-1. Over the north Atlantic track,6-9-day disturbances were found to occur from January to May and approximately from October to December.From June to September,the 3-5-day waves dominate the synoptic activity.Over the south Atlantic track,between May and August the synoptic variability is mainly explained by the 3-5-day disturbances but from January to April and from September to December both 3-5-day waves and 6-9-day waves can occur.     

致密的低渗透沉积岩——可燃气体的后备资源

讨论了按照岩石的渗滤容量特性而位于储集层与封隔层之间的低渗透性沉积岩层的强饱和天然气情况。确定了在显示具有生产性的饱和天然气的低渗透性岩层范围内的勘探方法。开发饱和天然气的致密岩层的首选地区已计划出来，这种开发可作为当地用户可燃气的一个低流速来源。     

答复：新成果证明不同模型的公开讨论是正确的

1000年前,犹太哲人写道:“学者间的争论可增进智慧”。与之相比,Schweig等人要求对选择与他们在新马德里地震带(NMSZ)高危险性模型不同的模型要十分谨慎。我们发现这有点不可思议。我们并非反对他们及其合作者所做的大量努力将     

北极光

高空现象居住在都市里的人群很少是注意到大自然的夜景;因为他们已被街灯和商标的五光十色所炫耀。那居住在乡村的,却可欣赏这无上美的夜景。London虽说较Montreal或Quebec近於北极,然而住在Canada的人,倒可以常常看见那光辉的北极光,这就是因为London     

华夏龙谱(18)——邹氏尾羽龙(Caudipteryx zoui)

1998年中国地质博物馆季强和姬书安、美国自然历史博物馆ＰｈｉｌｉｐＪ .Ｃｕｒｒｉｅ和ＭａｒｋＡ .Ｎｏｖｅｌｌ对 2件产自辽宁省北票市上园乡四合屯上侏罗统义县组下部湖相沉积火山凝灰质页岩的带羽毛印痕的脊椎动物骨架化石研究后 ,确认其是一种长羽毛的小型兽足类恐龙。为感谢当时的中国副总理邹家华对辽西古生物研究的大力支持 ,特将其命名为邹氏尾羽龙。特征 :体长近 1ｍ。前上颌骨具长而钩形的牙齿 ,齿根宽。上颌骨和齿骨无牙齿。尾短 (仅为体长 1/ 4 )。前肢较长而指爪较短。后肢长而粗壮。尾末端和前肢第 2指骨分别排列生长着长…     

菲律宾海板块运动欧拉参数的确定及其推论

利用 ＮＵＶＥＬ－１全球板块模型的 １１２２个数据、菲律宾海板块（ＰＨ）的地震滑动 矢量以及由ＧＰＳ测得的的运动速率，根据全球板块模型反演了包括菲律宾海板块在内 的１２个板块相对于太平洋板块（ＰＡ）的欧拉矢量．推得了菲律宾海板块相对周围其他板 块的运动矢量．这一结果与观测值相当符合，并能满足开罗林板块（ＣＲ）附近的ＣＲ－ＰＨ， ＰＡ－ＣＲ边界上的地质及其他地球物理约束．最后利用板块运动参数讨论了菲律宾海板 块的形变．     

归算震源面上P波和S波走时的方法

本文介绍了一种计算震源深度处地震波速度的方法，其中使用了球对称的层状地球模型及关于震中距与地震波走时之间的解析关系。该方法应用到蒂勒尼安南部区域和日本诸岛，可以由观测到的走时归算出震源深度的地震波速度，而无须借助于专门的速度模型。