Comparison of Three Tropical Cyclone Intensity Datasets

Analyzed in this paper are the 16-yr (1988-2003) tropical cyclone (TC) intensity data from three major forecast centers of the western North Pacific, i.e., China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo (RSMC Tokyo), and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the United States. Results show that there are significant discrepancies (at 1% significance level) in the intensity of TCs among the three centers, with a maximum difference for the same TC over 30 m s-1. The flight reconnaissance over TC can minish the discrepancy to some extent. A climatic and persistent prediction model is set up to study the impact of initial data from different forecast centers on the prediction of TC intensity. It is obtained that the root mean square error (RMSE) of a 4-yr independent test is the largest using data from JTWC, while the smallest using data from RSMC Tokyo. Average absolute deviation in 24-h intensity prediction is 2.5 m s-1 between CMA and RSMC Tokyo data, and 4.0 m s-1 between CMA and JTWC data, with a maximum deviation reaching 21 m s-1. Such a problem in the initial value increases the difficulty in intensity prediction of TCs over the western North Pacific.     

峡口高地应力软岩隧道施工监测及支护对策研究

针对高应力软岩公路隧道的特点,对湖北宜巴高速公路峡口隧道开展了地应力测试、隧洞收敛下沉、接触应力、结构受力等项目的监测工作。地应力测试结果表明,虽然隧洞埋深不大,但由于构造应力的存在,仍属于高地应力区。施工监测结果表明,高应力软岩隧道变形与结构受力具有明显的时空效应,与开挖方式、工作面距离以及支护时机密切相关。由于隧洞围岩软弱破碎,加之处于高应力作用下,在工作面通过后,岩体产生持续性的流变变形,导致隧洞产生挤压大变形和结构受力的持续增加,达到支护结构强度极限,最终导致围岩失稳和支护体系的失效。基于上述研究成果,提出了相应的高应力软岩大变形支护设计对策。研究成果为高应力软岩隧道变形与结构受力的时空效应性提供了监测数据支持,为峡口隧道的施工和支护设计提供了依据,对我国西部其他高应力软岩公路隧道的建设具有借鉴意义     

基于多尺度边缘约束的重力场信号的向下延拓

利用多尺度边缘检测理论,研究改善重力场信号向下延拓稳定性的新方法,简要介绍了小波多尺度边缘检测的基本原理,以EGM96重力场模型为例分析了地球重力场的多尺边缘。提出了基于多尺度边缘约束的向下延拓方法,并给出了模拟算例。计算结果表明,利用多尺度边缘约束改善向下延拓的稳定性是可行的,在观测值信噪比较差的情况下该方法的效果尤为明显。     

MARS:A TUTORIAL

This tutorial paper presents a simplified view of one of the more recently published multivariatecalibration methods particularly suited to dealing with non-linear data sets.The method is referred toas MARS and stands for multivariate adaptive regression splines.Simple examples are provided toexplain the workings of the method.     

层序成因动力学中的构造因素研究

本文以层序－盆地－构造为主线，对层序成因动力学中的构造控制进行了研究。结果表明，层序发育的构造控制主要表现为：1）构造控制盆地边界，进而控制层序充填轮廓；2）构造级次控制层序和层序级别；3)构造属性控制盆地性质，进而控制层序成因格架和界面成因类型；4)随着层序规模和界面级别的增大，构造控制的意义和痕迹越明显；5)同沉积断裂活动控制层序的内部构型；6)构造基底活动形式控制着层序容纳空间和结构型式；7)构造演化控制着盆地演化及性质，进而控制着层序充填样式和组合类型。     

Study on Flow Field Around Vertical Breakwater Under Different Overtopping Conditions Based on Numerical Simulation

A numerical wave flume is constructed based on the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations with turbulence closure by a modified k-ε model to study the viscous interactions of waves with vertical breakwaters for different overtopping cases. The governing equations,the turbulence model,boundary conditions,and solution method for the numerical wave flume are introduced briefly. The reliability of the numerical wave flume is examined by comparing the numerical results with the experimental measurement...     

单点高频地波雷达资料估算潮能耗散的方法

使用嵊泗站所布设的地波雷达观测获取的径向流数据,以及嵊泗、芦潮港、岱山3个潮汐观测站水位资料,采用两点近似投影方法反演流场全矢量流速,并用T-Tide程序计算调和常数,分别计算O1、K1、M2、S2各分潮流速场及迟角场,并计算各点上的潮能通量及潮能耗散,得到嵊泗岛以西杭州湾口区域潮能耗散同地形存在良好对应关系,充分证明了采用地波雷达观测数据进行潮能耗散计算这一方法的可行性,供相关工作者作进一步研究和讨论.     

热带西太平洋海域上层海洋热含量的CSEOF分析

基于月平均Argo温、盐度剖面、纬向风和Ni o3.4指数等资料,利用循环平稳经验正交函数(CSEOF)分解法、最大熵谱分析和相关分析等方法,研究了热带西太平洋海域上层(0—700m)海洋热含量的时空变化特征,并探讨了其年际变化的可能原因。结果表明,热带西太平洋海域上层海洋热含量距平场具有显著的东-西向反位相振荡,且这种振荡除了具有较明显的季节变化外,还存在着较强的准2a振荡。此外,热含量距平场还存在着负-正-负的三极式经向模态,该模态除了具有明显的季节变化外,还存在着显著的准4a振荡。进一步分析表明,热含量的准2a振荡与ENSO事件的发生有着非常密切的联系,并对赤道西太平洋纬向风异常有1—2月的滞后响应。     

Observations and Estimations of Directional Spectrum of Sea Waves

The directional spectrum is one of the basic characteristics of sea waves. The observations of directional spectrum of sea waves were successfully conducted at platform Bohai 8 during 1991 and 1992 using a wave gage array for the first time in China. Based on the field data, the directional spectrum which depends on the wave growth is given in this paper. Before observations, the effects of the type of gage array, the distance between the gages and the platform itself on the measured results and the precision of some methods for estimating the directional spectrum were investigated and compared with the methods of numerical simulations and model tests of multi-direcitonal irregular waves. This ensures the quality of the observations and estimations of the directional spectrum.     

A Nonlinear Model of Surf Beat

A nonlinear short-wave-averaged (surf beat) model is presented. The model is based on that of Roelvink (1993), but the numerical techniques used in the solution are based on the so-called weighted-averaged flux (WAF) method (eg Watson et al., 1992), with time-operator splitting used for the treatment of some of the source terms. This method allows a small number of computational points to be used, and is particularly efficient in modelling breaking long waves. The short-wave (or primary-wave) energy equation is solved using a more traditional Lax-Wendroff technique. Results of validation indicate that the model performs satisfactorily in most respects.