乌兰浩特市土地利用总体规划实施评价研究

本文主要以乌兰浩特市土地利用总体规划（1996-2010年）为主（以下简称现行规划）,采取定性和定量相结合的方法,并结合系统分析反馈的信息,构建现行规划实施评价指标体系,在此基础上进行综合评价,总结出现行规划实施的成效和存在的问题,同时阐明规划修编的理由,并对新一轮规划修编提出了建议。     

X射线荧光分析在岩屑录井中的应用

通过典型岩石化学的理论计算分析了部分沉积岩的成分特征和差别,为X射线荧光(XRF)录井分析鉴别岩性奠定了理论基础.地层在岩性组合与厚度上的差别是XRF录井技术鉴定地层的基本前提.根据沉积岩薄层岩层的厚度,提出以分米作为XRF录井取样的最低分辨率的标准.并以实例论述了在石油钻井的随钻过程中,采用XRF录井新技术进行岩性分析和地层对比的步骤;评价和展望了XRF录井新技术的特点与应用远景;指出建立不同岩性主要元素理论数据库和地区性地层岩性变化元素理论剖面的重要性;提出进一步改进XRF录井技术的方向.     

2009年冬季黄河中游一次由旱转雨雪天气的诊断分析

针对2009年2月7～8日持续干旱近百天的黄河中游地区出现的转折性雨雪天气,利用实况资料计算了等熵温度梯度、可降水量、水汽通量及其散度、相对湿度、垂直速度等,分析了熵分布及演变、干侵入、水汽场特征等,结果表明:(1)这次降水出现在500hPa环流形势平直,极地冷空气活动较弱,在地面回流高压呈东西向带状分布的背景下,系统浅薄,降水量级难以把握。(2)熵诊断揭示,500hPa等熵梯度大值区的出现对未来12～24h强降水有先兆指示意义,强降水中心出现在500hPa等熵梯度大值区与700hPa温度露点差3℃的叠加区。(3)水汽诊断表明,强降水出现前,黄河中游及其上游西南地区的可降水量显著增加,为强降水的出现提供了水汽的积聚,而降水开始后,低空超低空东南急流则是水汽的主要补充来源;强降水并不是出现在水汽通量大值区内,而是在水汽通量大值区西北侧、等值线密集带附近,同时又有风辐合的区域。(4)这次雨雪过程中,干冷空气主要来自对流层高层,在雨雪区上空的垂直分布呈"漏斗"状,该过程中从贝加尔湖地区南下的西北和东北气流沿漏斗壁下滑向低层传播;而中低层湿区呈倒扣的"碗状"向上伸展,中低层西南和东南两支暖湿气流沿"碗壁"爬升,在对流层中层耦合加强,与干冷空气交汇,产生强降水。(5)对流层高层持续的干侵入,使得中低层切变线稳定维持,有利于其前方西南急流的稳定加强和对流性不稳定的持续发展,是导致强降雪持续、增幅的重要原因。(6)强降水出现在地面中尺度辐合稳定加强期间,降水落区在辐合区及其东南侧;辐合区内强烈的上升运动是触发不稳定能量释放,使熵由不平衡达到平衡的重要机制。     

2009年北京地区公众气象服务调查分析

2009年3月23日中国气象局公共气象服务中心在北京以问卷的形式进行一次公众气象服务的调查。调查的主要内容包括气象预报准确性、气象服务满意度以及公众对气象服务的需求三个方面。通过对问卷调查结果的分析,可以初步了解北京地区公众对气象服务的评价及对部分气象服务的需求,有针对性地给公众气象服务工作提出合理化的意见和建议。     

长江上游社会经济因子对侵蚀产沙的影响

In recent years,the role of human activities in changing sediment yield has become more apparent for the construction of hydraulic engineering and water conservation projec-tions in the Upper Yangtze River,but it has not been evaluated at the macro scale.Taking Sichuan Province and Chongqing City as an example,this paper studies the relationship between socio-economic factors and sediment yield in the Upper Yangtze River based on section data in 1989 and 2007.The results show that sediment yield is significantly correlated with population density and cultivated area,in which the former appears to be more closely related to sediment yield.Moreover,in the relation of sediment yield vs.population density,a critical value of population density exists,below which the sediment yield increases with the increase of population density and over which the sediment yield increases with the decrease of population density.The phenomenon essentially reflects the influence of natural factors,such as topography,precipitation and soil property,and some human activities on sediment yield.The region with a higher population density than critical value is located in the east of the study area and is characterized by plains,hills and low mountains,whereas the opposite is located in the west and characterized by middle and high mountains.In the eastern region,more people live on the lands with a low slope where regional soil erosion is slight;therefore,sediment yield is negatively related with population density.In contrast,in the western region,the population tends to aggregate in the areas with abundant soil and water resources which usually lead to a higher intensity of natural erosion,and in turn,high-intensity agricultural practices in these areas may further strengthen local soil erosion.It is also found that popu-lation tends to move from the areas with bad environment and high sediment yield to the areas with more comfortable environment and less sediment yield.The natural factors have greater influence on sediment yield of western region than that of eastern region.Generally,the natural factors play a dominant role on sediment yield in the Upper Yangtze River.     

北极涛动对华北沙尘暴频次的影响

This study has investigated the influence of Arctic Oscillation (AO) on dust storm frequency in North China in spring seasons during 1961 2007.There is a significant linkage between dust storm frequency and AO;a negative (positive) AO phase is related to an in-creased (decreased) dust storm frequency in North China.This relationship is closely related to changes in the cold air activity in Mongolia.The cold air activity exerts large impacts on the dust storm frequency;the frequency of cold air activity over Mongolia not only positively cor-relates with the dust storm frequency in North China,but also shows a long-term decreasing trend that is an important reason for the long-term decreasing of dust storm frequency in North China.The AO has large influence on the frequency of cold air activity over Mongolia;a negative (positive) AO phase is highly related to an increased (decreased) frequency of cold air activity over Mongolia,which results in an increased (decreased) dust storm frequency in North China.     

集合变分混合同化方案在快速循环同化系统中的应用研究

基于北京市气象局快速循环同化系统RMAPS-ST以及对流尺度集合预报系统RMAPS-EN,构建了En-3DVAR集合变分混合同化系统,将该系统应用到业务快速循环同化系统中并进行试验,分别在冷启动与循环启动环境下对比了混合同化系统（Hybrid）与三维变分（3DVAR）的同化预报效果。获得的结论如下:单点试验结果表明,混合同化系统分析增量的分布与集合预报离散度分布具有较好的对应关系;在冷启动和循环启动中,三维变分的分析增量都表现出各向同性的特点,混合同化分析增量均表现出一定的流依赖特征;降水个例分析表明,在冷启动环境中,Hybrid与3DVAR效果相当,而在循环启动中,Hybrid的降水预报相对于3DVAR有较明显的改进效果;批量试验检验结果表明,冷启动中,Hybrid与3DVAR的评分大致相当,而在循环启动中,Hybrid相对于3DVAR的评分有明显改进;集合离散度和背景场误差的相关性分析表明二者在循环启动环境下具有更好的相关性。     

重大自然灾害空间信息协同服务机制研究

结合重大自然灾害应急管理的业务需求,分析了国外数据共享实践经验与案例,基于国家灾害管理实践工作经验,提出了中国建设重大自然灾害空间信息协同服务机制的构想。在进行职责任务划分的基础上,设立了包括指令中枢、数据中枢和信息中枢的立体化体制架构,并结合国家灾害管理业务工作的实际情况,制定了服务机制的业务关系流程,设定应急与常规相结合的运行模式,并对所需的保障配套机制进行了研究和分析。目前,重大自然灾害空间信息协同服务机制已经在国家灾害管理部门得到了一定范围的实践和检验,取得了较好的应用效果和社会经济效益。     

德州市气象局一次网络故障分析及解决

通过网络数据抓包软件对局域网中数据流的分析,对德州市气象局一次局域网网络拥堵现象进行研究分析,在首先分析局域网网络拓扑结构的基础上,判断问题的原因并找到解决问题的具体方法,快速恢复正常网络环境并做好系统日志记录。