华南区域高分辨率模式中不同雷达回波反演技术方案的比较试验

结合一次比较典型的华南前汛期暴雨过程,对目前常用的几种雷达回波反演技术进行比较,试图得到一种适用于华南区域高分辨率模式的技术方案。首先比较了两种不同的水凝物反演技术对短期降水预报的影响,发现基于暖雨假设构造的经验公式反演得到的云微物理量进行Nudging以后预报降水比实况偏弱,而利用LAPS系统可以反演出高层的固态粒子,这些云粒子通过冰相过程可以产生强度与实况相当的降水。仅仅引入初始场的凝结物只对第一小时降水预报改进比较明显。通过对两种不同的水汽反演技术进行比较,发现1D+3D方法反演得到的水汽场并不适用于高分辨率模式,按该方法调整初始场水汽之后反而导致降水预报效果变差,而根据雷达回波调整水汽饱和的方法却可以有效提高前6小时的降水评分,这种改进主要来自降水漏报现象的减少。总体来说,结合利用LAPS系统反演云物理量以及水汽饱和调整方法是一套比较适合华南区域高分辨率模式的技术路线。     

南海上层经向翻转环流的低频变化

The low-frequency variability of the shallow meridional overturning circulation(MOC) in the South China Sea(SCS) is investigated using a Simple Ocean Data Assimilation(SODA) product for the period of 1900–2010. A dynamical decomposition method is used in which the MOC is decomposed into the Ekman, external mode, and vertical shear components. Results show that all the three dynamical components contribute to the formation of the seasonal and annual mean shallow MOC in the SCS. The shallow MOC in the SCS consists of two cells: a clockwise cell in the south and an anticlockwise cell in the north; the former is controlled by the Ekman flow and the latter is dominated by the external barotropic flow, with the contribution of the vertical shear being to reduce the magnitude of both cells. In addition, the strength of the MOC in the south is found to have a falling trend over the past century, due mainly to a weakening of the Luzon Strait transport(LST) that reduces the transport of the external component. Further analysis suggests that the weakening of the LST is closely related to a weakening of the westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific, which leads to a southward shift of the North Equatorial Current(NEC) bifurcation and thus a stronger transport of the Kuroshio east of Luzon.     

Assimilation of Polarimetric Radar Data Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for the Analysis and Forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar

This study explores the potential for directly assimilating polarimetric radar data (including reflectivity Z and differential reflectivity ZDR) using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to improve analysis and forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar (2018). Ewiniar weakened but brought about heavy rainfall over Guangdong, China after its final landfall. Two experiments are performed, one assimilating only Z and the other assimilating both Z and ZDR. Assimilation of ZDR together with Z effectively modifies hydrometeor fields, and improves the intensity, shape and position of rainbands. Forecast of 24-hour extraordinary rainfall ≥250 mm is significantly improved. Improvement can also be seen in the wind fields because of cross-variable covariance. The current study shows the possibility of applying polarimetric radar data to improve forecasting of tropical cyclones, which deserves more researches in the future.     

阿尔金北缘岩石变形机制——来自X光组构分析的证据

对阿尔金北缘地区变形蚀变花岗岩、花岗质糜棱岩、变形酸性火山岩和变形英安质凝灰岩中石英和绢云母2种矿物进行X光岩石组构分析,认为本区岩石变形比较明显,宏观面理近于东西向展布,绢云母变形较强,平行于面理定向排列;而石英以底面或近底面滑移为主,部分样品兼有柱面Ⅰ型滑移和柱面Ⅱ型滑移,反映本区岩石变形机制为中浅层次的脆-韧性变形(10~15km、250~350℃、0.25~0.40GPa)。通过岩石组构特征与宏观面理产状,推断本区韧性变形以右行运动为主,与板块碰撞在阿尔金北缘大平沟地区产生的韧性变形带特征一致。     

水生动物来源的抗肿瘤活性肽作用机制研究进展

<正>生物活性肽能调节人体多种生理功能,有提高免疫、抗肿瘤、抗病毒和降血压等作用,而且肽类物质的结构类型十分丰富,有巨大的药物活性筛选潜力,是当前国际药品与保健品界最热门的研究对象和极具发展前景的功能因子[1]。在中国,生物活性肽开发利用的研究起步较晚,易杨华等[2]从棕色扁海绵(Phakellia fusca)中获得一个具有较好抗肿瘤活性的新型类环七肽的phakellistatin(Pro-Gly-Phe-ProTrp-Leu-Thr),这也是首次从产于中国海域的     

威海市城市垃圾填埋场选址地质环境适宜性评价

威海是"最适宜人类居住的地方",但随着城市建设的快速发展,城市垃圾产生量不断增加,垃圾填埋场选址问题亟待解决。以威海市环翠区为研究对象,综合考虑地形地貌、土地利用规划、交通、水利规划、气象、地质、水文地质、工程地质、环境地质等多方面因素及经济效益和环境效益,从地质环境角度出发,选取5个层次共15个评价因子,采用层次—网格法进行了垃圾填埋场选址区划分析研究,划分出垃圾可填埋区、限制填埋区、禁止填埋区。并在限制填埋区和可填埋区,进一步优选出几个垃圾填埋场地的首选场址,可供规划、设计部门参考。     

改善地电阻率外线路工作效能的一次尝试

黄子洞地电台位于广东省新丰江水库以东约5公里处,台站附近地势比较平坦,地表为老第三纪红层,厚约300米左右。 台站建于1968年,目前共有5道测线,它们分别垂直或平行于河源断裂,其中第四道测线布设在河源断层的东南侧,并与断层垂直,线路长1000米。 由于该台位于我国南方,空气湿度大,雨季     

有云环境下MODIS亮温资料的变分同化Ⅱ——对暴雨预报的影响

卫星资料提供了大量关于云和雨的观测信息,在暴雨预报中可发挥巨大的作用,然而在数值模式资料同化中的应用水平仍然不高,特别是红外辐射资料的应用。由于有云环境下辐射传输过程的模拟难度很大,因此通常只同化晴空环境下的红外辐射资料。基于GRAPES-3DVAR(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System,全球/区域同化预报系统),根据RTTOV辐射传输模式(fast radiative transfer model for TOVS,快速辐射传输模式)的特点,增加云水含量、云冰水含量和云量作为同化系统控制变量,在改进辐射传输模式对红外资料模拟的同时,利用红外资料调整初始云参数和大气参数。针对2007年5月26日南海季风爆发后广东地区的一次暴雨过程,选取MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer,中分辨成像光谱仪)传感器水汽(第27)和云顶观测(第36)通道进行了同化试验,利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,天气研究和预报模式)进行了数值模拟,结果表明同化MODIS资料,可以改进初始场水汽和温度分布,间接调整高空风场,调整趋势符合卫星观测,对短时降水预报有正面影响。     

INVESTIGATION ON EFFECTS OF INITIAL SCHEMES FOR BINARY TYPHOONS ROKE AND SONCA IN 2011

Based on the Tropical Region Atmospheric Modeling System for South China Sea (TRAMS), Typhoon Roke (1115) and Sonca (1116) in 2011 which have large forecast errors in numerical operation prediction, have been selected for research focusing on the initial scheme and its influence on forecast. The purpose is to find a clue for model improvement and enhance the performance of the typhoon model. Several initialization schemes have been designed and the corresponding experiments have been done for Typhoon Roke and Sonca. The results show that the forecast error of both typhoons’ track and intensity are less using the initial scheme of relocation and bogus just for the weak Typhoon Sonca, compared with using the scheme for both typhoons. By analysis the influence of the scheme on weak typhoon vortex circulation may be the reason that leads to the improvement. All weak typhoons in 2011 to 2012 are selected for tests. It comes to the conclusion that the initial scheme of relocation and bogus can reduce the error of track and intensity forecast. Besides, the height of cloud top in typhoon vortex constructed by bogus is too high according to weak typhoon. It is feasible to develop a bogus which is suitable for weak typhoon.     

《中国震旦亚界研究》成果评审和经验交流会议在成都召开

《中国震旦亚界研究》成果评审和经验交流会议,由国家地质总局委托中国地质利学院主持,于一九七九年五月十九日至二十九日在成都召开。参加这次会议的有国家地质总局系统、中国科学院所属有关单位和有关院校八十七个单位的代表,以及《光明日报》、天津人民出版社的同志,共二百一十二人。提交会议的科研成果报告、学术论文共八十一篇,近二百万字。