未来情景下南水北调中线工程水源区极端降水分布特征

利用南水北调中线工程水源区9个气象站点1961-2008年的日降水资料和IPCC第四次评估报告多模式数据结果,抽取逐年的最大日降水量序列样本,运用广义极值分布（GEV）和广义帕累托分布 (GPD）两种极值统计模型对样本进行拟合,遴选出描述流域最大日降水量分布规律的最优概率模型,推算重现期对应的降水量值,并预估该流域极端降水事件在未来气候变化情景下的响应。研究表明：南水北调中线工程水源区降水极值均符合GEV和GPD分布,但GPD模型更适合用于描述该流域降水极值分布;未来气候变化情景下用GPD分布拟合的降水极值优于使用GEV分布;A2情景下极端降水事件的发生将更频繁、更强烈,A1B情景下次之,B1情景下相对较小,表明未来高排放气候情景对极端降水事件的影响比中、低排放情景大。     

长江中下游流域旱涝急转事件特征分析及其与ENSO的关系（英文）

During recent decades,more frequent flood-drought alternations have been seen in China as a result of global climate change and intensive human activities,which have significant implications on water and food security.To better identify the characteristics of flood-drought alternations,we proposed a modified dry-wet abrupt alternation index(DWAAI)and applied the new method in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(YRB-ML)to analyze the long-term spatio-temporal characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alternation(DWAA)events based on the daily precipitation observations at 75 rainfall stations in summer from 1960 to 2015.We found that the DWAA events have been spreading in the study area with higher frequency and intensity since 1960.In particular,the DWAA events mainly occurred in May and June in the northwest of the YRB-ML,including Hanjiang River Basin,the middle reaches of the YRB,north of Dongting Lake and northwest of Poyang Lake.In addition,we also analyzed the impact of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation(ENSO)on DWAA events in the YRB-ML.The results showed that around 41.04%of DWAA events occurred during the declining stages of La Ni?a or within the subsequent 8 months after La Ni?a,which implies that La Ni?a events could be predictive signals of DWAA events.Besides,significant negative correlations have been found between the modified DWAAI values of all the rainfall stations and the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino3.4 region within the 6 months prior to the DWAA events,particularly for the Poyang Lake watershed and the middle reaches of the YRB.This study has significant implications on the flood and drought control and water resources management in the YRB-ML under the challenge of future climate change.     

乌鲁木齐国际机场一次阵风锋天气成因分析

利用常规天气资料、跑道自动观测资料(AW0S)、自动气象站资料、卫星云图、多普勒天气雷达等资料,对乌鲁木齐机场发生的一次阵风锋造成的大风和沙暴天气进行分析.结果表明:①阵风锋天气来临时,具有气压陡升、温度骤降、风向变化、风速突增、湿度增加等气象要素的演变特征,跑道两端出现了风向和风速变化的不连续,多个时刻跑道水平风切变强度超过了强度标准值.②阵风锋天气是在500 hPa北支槽底分裂短波携带冷空气快速向东入侵渗透下出现的,大风沙暴发生在干线和地面风场辐合区附近,空中“干暖盖”的存在有利于不稳定能量的积累.③对流云团在东移过程中破坏了乌鲁木齐上空的逆温层,促使不稳定能量的释放,呼图壁至乌鲁木齐机场的大风沙暴天气就发生在TBB值梯度的密集带上.④阵风锋在雷达图中表现为强对流回波前方一条弱而窄呈南北向的带状回波,回波强度偏弱,速度场中形成了正负速度交界的辐合带.     

新工科背景下遥感专业实践教学改革探索

在新工科背景下,以培养工程实践能力强、综合素质高的应用型创新人才的工程教育理念为指导,本文分析了遥感科学与技术专业实践教学存在的教学内容落后、教学资料缺乏、教学模式单一、校企合作不紧密等问题,探索了实践教学改革。通过优化专业培养方案,建立“专业基础—专业综合应用—创新能力培养”3个层次相互衔接的实验教学体系,根据市场调研和学科竞赛增加新的实践内容,采用多种教学模式,改革考核方法,以考促学,建立产学研相结合的教学平台,从而调动学生的学习积极性,提高学生的实践能力和创新能力。