近50年广东省分级降水的时空分布特征及其变化趋势的研究

利用广东省86个常规气象观测站1961—2010年的逐日降水资料,分析近50年广东省降水气候特征,探讨不同等级降水空间分布及随时间变化特征。结果表明:广东省降水丰沛,年均降水量多为1 500~2 000 mm;降水气候特征的区域差异较大,不同区域降水量与降水日数分布差异显著;各月的降水日数差异没有降水量月分布的差异明显,非汛期的日降水量较小,而汛期降水日数多且日降水量大;小雨日和中雨日的区域差异小,大雨日、暴雨日、大暴雨日的大值中心主要集中在广东省的三大暴雨中心地区 (清远中心、阳江中心、海陆丰中心),雨日量级分布大致由北向南逐渐增强,且随着降水等级的增加降雨日数迅速减少;小雨、中雨和大雨的降水贡献率均由粤北地区向沿海地区递减,暴雨和大暴雨的贡献率由粤北向沿海递增;小雨日数显著减少、大雨以上日数略有增多,总降水日数也呈减少趋势;小雨和中雨的贡献率呈减少趋势,大雨以上贡献率增多,使年均降水量呈增多趋势。      

SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS AND VARIATION TRENDS OF HIERARCHICAL PRECIPITATION IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE OVER THE PAST 50 YEARS

The climatic characteristics of the precipitation in Guangdong province over the past 50 years were analyzed based on the daily rainfall datasets of 86 stations from 1961 to 2010. The rainfall was divided into five categories according to its intensity, and their spatiotemporal characteristics and variation trends were investigated. The annual rainfall amount was within 1,500 to 2,000 mm over most parts of Guangdong, but substantial differences of rainfall amount and rainy days were found among different parts of the province. There were many rainy days in the dry seasons (October to March), but the daily rainfall amounts are small. The rainy seasons (April to September) have not only many rainy days but also heavy daily rainfall amounts. The spatial distributions of light rainy days (1 mm 100 mm) are generally concentrated in three regions, Qingyuan, Yangjiang, and Haifeng/Lufeng. The average rainfall amount for rainy days increases form the north to the south of Guangdong, while decreasing as the rainfall intensity increases. The contributions from light, moderate and heavy rain to the total rainfall decreases form the north to the south. The annual rainy days show a decreasing trend in the past 50 years. The light rainy days decreased significantly while the heavy, rainstorm and downpour rainy days increased slightly. The annual total rainfall amount increased over the past 50 years, which was contributed by heavy, rainstorm and downpour rains, while the contribution from light and moderate rains decreased.     

基于多测点LA-ICPMS的耳石核区元素指纹分析技术及其在鱼类群体识别中的实证研究

构建了多测点激光剥蚀取样（LA）-ICPMS元素分析-剥蚀点显微结构验证的耳石核区元素指纹分析技术,以此进行了五个刀鲚群体（辽东湾、渤海湾、黄河口、胶州湾及长江口群体）识别的实证研究。结果发现,耳石核区Sr：Ca和Ba：Ca比值是有效识别各地理群体的元素指纹,基于二者的各群体判别成功率在46.2%—92.3%之间,总体...     

黔西南晚二叠世龙潭组物源分析及区域沉积古地理重建

黔西南上二叠统龙潭组为一套以海陆交互相细屑岩为主的沉积地层,与下伏茅口组平行不整合接触。龙潭组砂岩碎屑组分以板片状—微晶状的玄武—安山质火山岩岩屑为主,并含少量霏细晶—隐晶质的酸性火山岩岩屑。泥质岩全岩主量元素以低SiO_2(28.3%~51.9%)、高TiO_2(1.0%~4.1%)和低Al_2O_3/TiO_2比值(3.9~6.9)为特征,与峨眉山高Ti玄武岩的Al_2O_3/TiO_2比值(集中在2.5~5.0之间)较为接近。龙潭组的碎屑锆石显示峰期年龄为~260Ma,与峨眉山大火成岩省的火山喷发期(258~263Ma)相吻合。锆石微量元素指示其与板内/非造山环境的岩浆活动有关,结合同时期北部陆相和南部深水盆地相的沉积物源研究,该结果表明龙潭组碎屑岩的源岩为峨眉山玄武质和长英质火山岩。基于此,本文对晚二叠世滇黔桂地区峨眉山源区—河流—滨岸—右江深水盆地的沉积古地理格局进行重建。     

OBSERVATIONAL STUDY ON THE PRE-TROPICAL CYCLONE SQUALL LINE OF 8 AUGUST 2007 OVER THE COAST OF SOUTH CHINA

A squall line in front of the tropical cyclone Pabuk occurred in the west of the Pearl River Delta to Zhanjiang on August 8th, 2007 when the storm approached South China. The development, structure and environmental conditions for this squall line were investigated in this study, with particular attention paid to the possible connection of this squall line with Pabuk. The observational data employed in this study are from soundings, Doppler weather radars and wind profile radars. The following six major conclusions are drawn by our observational analyses. (1) This squall line developed gradually from individual convective cells, and land breeze may be responsible for the onset of the squall line. (2) The path and intensity of the squall line were modulated by the environmental conditions. The squall line propagated along the coastline, and it was stronger on the landing side of the coastline compared with the surrounding in-land regions and oceanic regions. (3) The typical characteristics of tropical squall lines were seen in this squall line, including the cold-pool intensity, vertical structure and the wake flow stratiform precipitation at its developing and mature phases. (4) The environmental conditions of this squall line resemble those of tropical squall lines in terms of deep moist air and low convection condensation level. They also resemble mid-latitude squall lines in terms of the convective instable energy and vertical wind shear in the lower troposphere. (5) Two roles were played by the strong wind around Pabuk. On the one hand, it made the atmosphere more unstable via suppressed shallow convection and increased solar radiation. On the other hand, it enhanced the land-sea thermal contrast and therefore strengthened the sea breeze and the resultant water vapor transport. The sinking temperature inversion prevented the occurrence of low-layer weak convection and accumulated convection instability energy for the development of the strong convection.     

基于矢耳石形态分析的凤鲚(Coilia mystus) 群体识别研究

以长江口、胶州湾、渤海湾和辽东湾4个地理群体的凤鲚(Coilia mystus)矢耳石样本为研究对象,采用形状指数和椭圆傅里叶系数分析相结合的方法研究了该4个凤鲚群体的矢耳石形态特征及差异性。方差分析结果表明,大部分形态变量存在显著的群体差异,引入协变量(耳石长)之后除形状因子外这种差异依然显著。基于协方差校正的判别分析只保留了耳石重量及9个傅里叶系数用于群体识别,而非参数检验的判别分析则保留了耳石重量、分形维数、环状度、矩形趋近率、圆度和19个傅里叶系数用于群体识别。相应地,基于非参检验的凤鲚群体的总体识别成功率(68.2%)明显高于协方差校正的判别分析结果(46.2%),表明前者比后者更能提高耳石形态分析的群体识别能力。     

海蜇(Rhopilema esculentum)浮游幼体对褐牙鲆(Paralichthys olivaceus)卵和初孵仔鱼捕食的比较研究

利用实验生态学方法研究不同个体大小的海蜇浮游幼体[平均伞径(2.5±0.1),(4.1±0.2),(11.7±0.5),(21.1±0.6)mm]对不同密度(10,30,50,80ind/L)的褐牙鲆卵[卵径(0.92±0.01)mm]和初孵仔鱼[全长(3.01±0.08)mm]的捕食率,解析海蜇浮游幼体对初孵仔鱼的捕食率随捕食时间(0.5,1,2,3,4,5h)的变化特征。结果表明,各个体组海蜇浮游幼体对卵的捕食率均显著低于对仔鱼的捕食率;它们对卵的捕食率与卵密度和海蜇个体大小的关系不显著,但对仔鱼的捕食率随海蜇个体大小及仔鱼密度的增大而显著升高;伞径21.1mm的个体对仔鱼的捕食率在开始捕食后1h时达到最大值[17.3ind/(predator.h)],此后随捕食时间的延长而逐渐下降。在自然水域中,如果二者发生时空上的匹配关系,海蜇浮游幼体对仔鱼的捕食可能影响褐牙鲆的早期存活及其资源补充量的变动。     

气象水文模型耦合研究及在西苕溪流域的模拟试验

为了提高洪水预报的精度,延长洪水预见期,利用WRF模式和HEC-HMS水文模型对太湖西苕溪流域2009年8月的一次典型暴雨洪水过程进行了降雨模拟和流量耦合预报,并与实测降雨和径流过程进行了对比分析。(1) WRF模式能够较好模拟出位于天目山的强降水中心,位置较实况略偏北;预报子流域面雨量时空分布与实况较一致,定量检验合格率达50%左右。(2) HEC-HMS模型对西苕溪流域日径流过程和场降雨洪水过程均有较好的模拟效果,模型参数验证和率定期间,确定性系数、洪峰流量相对误差和峰现时差等指标均小于业务预报许可误差。(3) 采用单向耦合法,将WRF模式(5 km网格)48 h预见期的滚动预报降雨场输入HEC-HMS水文模型进行流量滚动预报,耦合预报结果明显优于不考虑预见期内降雨的传统预报方法,在保证精度的前提下,有效延长了洪水预见期。      

Application of otolith shape analysis for stock discrimination and species identification of five goby species （Perciformes： Gobiidae） in the northern Chinese coastal waters

We tested the use of otolith shape analysis to discriminate between species and stocks of five goby species( Ctenotrypauchen chinensis, Odontamblyopus lacepedii, Amblychaeturichthys hexanema, Chaeturichthys stigmatias, and Acanthogobius hasta) found in northern Chinese coastal waters. The five species were well differentiated with high overall classification success using shape indices(83.7%), elliptic Fourier coefficients(98.6%), or the combination of both methods(94.9%). However, shape analysis alone was only moderately successful at discriminating among the four stocks(Liaodong Bay, LD; Bohai Bay, BH; Huanghe(Yellow) River estuary HRE, and Jiaozhou Bay, JZ stocks) of A. hasta(50%–54%) and C. stigmatias(65.7%–75.8%). For these two species, shape analysis was moderately successful at discriminating the HRE or JZ stocks from other stocks, but failed to effectively identify the LD and BH stocks. A large number of otoliths were misclassified between the HRE and JZ stocks, which are geographically well separated. The classification success for stock discrimination was higher using elliptic Fourier coefficients alone(70.2%) or in combination with shape indices(75.8%) than using only shape indices(65.7%) in C. stigmatias whereas there was little difference among the three methods for A. hasta. Our results supported the common belief that otolith shape analysis is generally more effective for interspecific identification than intraspecific discrimination. Moreover, compared with shape indices analysis, Fourier analysis improves classification success during inter- and intra-species discrimination by otolith shape analysis, although this did not necessarily always occur in all fish species.