Genetic algorithms for the classification and prediction of precipitation occurrence

Abstract

Using an approach similar to the biological processes of natural selection and evolution, the genetic algorithm (GA) is a nonconventional optimum search technique. Genetic algorithms have the ability to search large and complex decision spaces and handle nonconvexities. In this paper, the GA is applied for solving the optimum classification of rainy and non-rainy day occurrences based on vertical velocity, dewpoint depression, temperature and humidity data. The problem involves finding optimum classification based on known data, training the future prediction system and then making reliable predictions for rainfall occurrences which have significance in agricultural, transportation, water resources and tourism activities. Various statistical approaches require restrictive assumptions such as stationarity, homogeneity and normal probability distribution of the hydrological variables concerned. The GAs do not require any of these assumptions in their applications. The GA approach for the occurrence classifications and predictions is presented in steps and then the application of the methodology is shown for precipitation occurrence (non-occurrence) data. It has been shown that GAs give better results than classical approaches such as discriminant analysis. The application of the methodology is presented independently for the precipitation event occurrences and forecasting at the Lake Van station in eastern Turkey. Finally, the amounts of precipitation are predicted with a model similar to a third order Markov model whose parameters are estimated by the GA technique.     

Seasonal variations in soil radon emanation: long-term continuous monitoring in light of seismicity

Soil gas radon release patterns have been monitored continuously for more than 3 years in the Eastern Mediterranean Province (EMP) (Southern Turkey), alongside regional seismic events, providing a multidisciplinary approach. In the period from January 2008 to January 2011, 14 earthquakes M _L ≥4 occurred in the study area. By monitoring the sites for more than 3 years, the site-characteristic patterns of soil radon emanation of each site have become evident. Radon emanation data show seasonal (semi-annual) variation characteristics; high soil radon values are between May and October and low soil radon values are between November and April. With available rainfall data, the soil gas radon data can be more reliably evaluated. It is shown in this paper that if radon emanation data are available over sufficiently long periods of time and baseline data (and their seasonal variations) are known with certainty for each monitoring site, then the observation of positive anomalies might provide a correlation or connection to seismic activity.     

Coexistence of abyssal and ultra-depleted SSZ type mantle peridotites in a Neo-Tethyan Ophiolite in SW Turkey: Constraints from mineral composition,whole-rock geochemistry (major–trace–REE–PGE), and Re–Os isotope systematics

We present new, whole-rock major and trace element chemistry, including rare earth elements (REE), platinum-group elements (PGE), and Re–Os isotope data from the upper mantle peridotites of a Cretaceous Neo-Tethyan ophiolite in the Mu?la area in SW Turkey. We also report extensive mineral chemistry data for these peridotites in order to better constrain their petrogenesis and tectonic environment of formation. The Mu?la peridotites consist mainly of cpx-harzburgite, depleted harzburgite, and dunite. Cpx-harzburgites are characterized by their higher average CaO (2.27 wt.%), Al₂O₃ (2.07 wt.%), REE (53 ppb), and ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os_(i) ratios varying between 0.12497 and 0.12858. They contain Al-rich pyroxene with lower Cr content of coexisting spinel (Cr# = 13–22). In contrast, the depleted harzburgites and dunites are characterized by their lower average CaO (0.58 wt.%), Al₂O₃ (0.42 wt.%), and REE (1.24 ppb) values. Their clinopyroxenes are Al-poor and coexist with high-Cr spinel (Cr# = 33–83). The ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os_(i) ratios are in the range of 0.12078–0.12588 and are more unradiogenic compared to those of the cpx-harzburgites.Mineral chemistry and whole rock trace and PGE data indicate that formation of the Mu?la peridotites cannot be explained by a single stage melting event; at least two-stages of melting and refertilization processes are needed to explain their geochemical characteristics. Trace element compositions of the cpx-harzburgites can be modeled by up to ~ 10–16% closed-system dynamic melting of a primitive mantle source, whereas those of the depleted harzburgites and dunites can be reproduced by ~ 10–16% open-system melting of an already depleted (~ 16%) mantle. These models indicate that the cpx-harzburgites are the products of first-stage melting and low-degrees of melt–rock interaction that occurred in a mid-ocean ridge (MOR) environment. However, the depleted harzburgites and dunites are the product of second-stage melting and related refertilization which took place in a supra subduction zone (SSZ) environment. The Re–Os isotope systematics of the Mu?la peridotites gives model age clusters of ~ 250 Ma, ~ 400 Ma and ~ 750 Ma that may record major tectonic events associated with the geodynamic evolution of the Neo-Tethyan, Rheic, and Proto-Tethyan oceans, respectively. Furthermore, > 1000 Ma model ages can be interpreted as a result of an ancient melting event before the Proto-Tethys evolution.     

Liquefaction-induced settlement,site effects and damage in the vicinity of Yalova City during the 1999 Izmit earthquake,Turkey

Yalova City (Turkey) is in a tectonically active location that is particularly affected by the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. Magnitudes 7.4 and 7.2 earthquakes in 1999 caused great destruction in Yalova. The heavy damage to buildings and other civil engineering structures was mainly due to liquefaction-induced settlement and site effects such as resonance and amplification. In the first phase of this study, the soil liquefaction potential index (PL) and the induced soil settlement were estimated. In the second phase, the effects on sites in Yalova soil were investigated using microtremor and earthquake data. The fundamental periods and amplification in soft soil were compared with microtremor data and strong ground motion records obtained by a local array of eight accelerograph stations deployed in Yalova. Thirty-seven ‘single site’ ambient noise measurements were taken in a dense grid of points covering the centre of the city. A comparison between fundamental periods obtained from strong ground motion records and from microtremor measurements showed similarities, in the 0.1–5 Hz range. Finally, soil liquefaction and amplification (or resonance) were divided into regions according to the extent of damage and the geotechnical/geophysical results.     

Geochemical make-up of oceanic peridotites from NW Turkey and the multi-stage melting history of the Tethyan upper mantle

We present the whole-rock and the mineral chemical data for upper mantle peridotites from the Harmanc?k region in NW Turkey and discuss their petrogenetic–tectonic origin. These peridotites are part of a Tethyan ophiolite belt occurring along the ?zmir-Ankara-Ercincan suture zone in northern Turkey, and include depleted lherzolites and refractory harzburgites. The Al₂O₃ contents in orthopyroxene and clinopyroxene from the depleted lherzolite are high, and the Cr-number in the coexisting spinel is low falling within the abyssal field. However, the orthopyroxene and clinopyroxene in the harzburgites have lower Al₂O₃ contents for a given Cr-number of spinel, and plot within the lower end of the abyssal field. The whole-rock geochemical and the mineral chemistry data imply that the Harmanc?k peridotites formed by different degrees of partial melting (~%10–27) of the mantle. The depleted lherzolite samples have higher MREE and HREE abundances than the harzburgitic peridotites, showing convex-downward patterns. These peridotites represent up to ~16 % melting residue that formed during the initial seafloor spreading stage of the Northern Neotethys. On the other hand, the more refractory harzburgites represent residues after ~4–11 % hydrous partial melting of the previously depleted MOR mantle, which was metasomatized by slab-derived fluids during the early stages of subduction. The Harmanc?k peridotites, hence, represent the fragments of upper mantle rocks that formed during different stages of the tectonic evolution of the Tethyan oceanic lithosphere in Northern Neotethys. We infer that the multi-stage melting history of the Harmanc?k peridotites reflect the geochemically heterogeneous character of the Tethyan oceanic lithosphere currently exposed along the ?zmir-Ankara-Erzincan suture zone.     

Determination of deterioration of the main facade of the Ferit Paşa Cistern by non-destructive techniques (Konya,Turkey)

Building stones have long been one of the most widely used construction materials in the world. Building stones used in historical monuments are deteriorated partly or completely depending on the environmental and atmospheric effects. In recent years, non-destructive test methods have been used to assess deterioration of building stones used in historical monuments. Gödene stone is one of the building stones being widely used in the historical buildings in the Konya region, Central Anatolia. The most deterioration effects are observed in the Ferit Pa?a Cistern among the historical structures built with Gödene stone in the region. The aim of this study is to assess the deteriorating effects in the street façade of the Ferit Pa?a Cistern via non-destructive testing methods (Schmidt hardness rebound value, P-wave velocity, humidity measurement and thermal imaging) and create maps of deteriorated features. Turkey’s historic places are integrated to Turkish culture, efforts are made to conserve heritage through rehabilitation. Therefore, this study will help developers and federal managers during the project planning stage by providing technical data.