Shift trend and step changes for runoff time series in the Shiyang River basin,northwest China

Shift trend and step changes were detected for runoff time series in the Shiyang River basin, one of the inland river basins in north‐west China. Annual runoff data from eight tributaries as well as both annual and monthly runoff from the mainstream from 1958 to 2003 were used. Seven statistical test methods were employed to identify the shift trends and step changes in the study. Mann–Kendall test, Spearman's Rho test, linear regression and Hurst exponent were used to detect past and future shift trends for runoff time series, while the distributed‐free CUSUM test, cumulative deviations and the Worsley likelihood ratio test were used to detect step changes for the same time series. Results showed that the annual runoff from Zamu, Huangyang and Gulang rivers, as well as both annual and monthly runoff from the mainstream, show statistically significant decreasing trends. Future tendency of runoff for both tributaries and mainstream were consistent with that from 1958 to 2003. Step changes probably occurred in 1961 for the runoff from Huangyang, Gulang and Dajing rivers according to the Worsley likelihood ratio test, but no similar results were found using the other two test methods. Three change points (1979, 1974 and 1973) were detected for the mainstream using different methods. These change points were close to the years that reservoirs started to be operated. Both climate change and human activities, especially the latter, contributed to the decreasing runoff in the study area. Between 21% and 79% of the reduction in runoff from the mainstream was due to the impact of human activities during the past few decades. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics and distribution of clay minerals and their effects on reservoir quality: Huagang Formation in the Xihu Sag,East China Sea Basin

Abstract

The characteristics and distribution of clay minerals and their effects on reservoir quality in the Huagang sandstones in the Xihu Sag, East China Sea Basin were studied by using X-ray diffraction, casting thin-sections, scanning electron microscopy, electron microprobe analysis, fluid inclusion analysis, constant-rate mercury injection and nuclear magnetic resonance. Clay minerals consist of kaolinite, chlorite, illite and illite–smectite mixed layer (I/S); kaolinite forms from dissolved feldspars, chlorite occurs as clay coatings that are transformed from clay precursors owing to the flocculation of suspended detrital clays or the crystallisation of pore fluids, and illite forms from the illitisation of detrital smectite, authigenic kaolinite and K-feldspars. Clay distribution is controlled by sedimentary environments, burial history and lithologies. Typical reservoirs in the western sub-sag are thin and developed in braided river facies at relatively shallow burial depths with clays dominated by kaolinite. However, typical reservoirs in the central inversion tectonic zone are thicker and developed in a braided delta front facies at deeper burial depths with clays mainly consisting of chlorite, illite and I/S. High-quality reservoirs are characterised by coarse granularity, high quartz content and low clay content with widespread development of chlorite coatings that inhibit quartz cements at low temperatures. At higher temperatures, the high-quality reservoirs develop more pores providing growth space for quartz cements and result in the coexistence of chlorite coatings and quartz cements. The high-quality reservoirs are controlled by their lithological characteristics rather than chlorite coatings. Illite and I/S clays create severe damage to reservoirs by reducing the size and connectivity of pore-throats.     

Long‐term trend analysis for major climate variables in the Yellow River basin*

Some previous studies have shown that drying‐up of the lower Yellow River resulted from decreasing precipitation and excessive industrial and agricultural consumption of water from the middle and downstream regions of the Yellow River. On the basis of average air temperature, precipitation, and pan evaporation data from nearly 80 gauging stations in the Yellow River basin, the monotonic trends of major climate variables over the past several decades are analysed. The analysis was mainly made for 12 months and the annual means. The isograms for annual and typical months are given in the paper. The result shows that the average temperature in the study area exhibits an increasing trend, mainly because of the increase of temperature in December, January and February. The largest trend is shown in December and the smallest is in August. There are 65 of 77 stations exhibiting a downward trend for annual precipitation. In all seasons except summer, there is a similar trend in the upstream region of the Yellow River, south of latitude 35°N. It is interesting to note that the pan evaporation has decreased in most areas of the Yellow River basin during the past several decades. April and July showed the greatest magnitude of slope, and the area from Sanmenxia to Huayuankou as well as the Yiluo River basin exhibited the strongest declining trend. The conclusion is that the decreasing pan evaporation results from complex changes of air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed, and both climate change and human activities have affected the flow regime of the Yellow River during the past several decades. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigation on strength and stability of jointed rock mass using three‐dimensional numerical manifold method

This paper proposes a numerical model for jointed rock masses within the 3‐D numerical manifold method (NMM) framework equipped with a customized contact algorithm. The strength of rock sample containing a few sets of discontinuities is first investigated. The results of models with simple geometries are compared with the available analytical solutions to verify the developed computer code, whereas models with complex geometries are simulated to better understand the fundamental behavior and failure mechanism of jointed rock mass. Furthermore, the stability of jointed rock mass in an underground excavation is studied, where rock failure process is determined by the 3‐D NMM simulation. The simulation results provide valuable guidance on excavation process design and stabilization design in rock engineering practice. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using a H∞ filter assimilation procedure to estimate root zone soil water content

Root zone soil water content impacts plant water availability, land energy and water balances. Because of unknown hydrological model error, observation errors and the statistical characteristics of the errors, the widely used Kalman filter (KF) and its extensions are challenged to retrieve the root zone soil water content using the surface soil water content. If the soil hydraulic parameters are poorly estimated, the KF and its extensions fail to accurately estimate the root zone soil water. The H‐infinity filter (HF) represents a robust version of the KF. The HF is widely used in data assimilation and is superior to the KF, especially when the performance of the model is not well understood. The objective of this study is to study the impact of uncertain soil hydraulic parameters, initial soil moisture content and observation period on the ability of HF assimilation to predict in situ soil water content. In this article, we study seven cases. The results show that the soil hydraulic parameters hold a critical role in the course of assimilation. When the soil hydraulic parameters are poorly estimated, an accurate estimation of root soil water content cannot be retrieved by the HF assimilation approach. When the estimated soil hydraulic parameters are similar to actual values, the soil water content at various depths can be accurately retrieved by the HF assimilation. The HF assimilation is not very sensitive to the initial soil water content, and the impact of the initial soil water content on the assimilation scheme can be eliminated after about 5–7 days. The observation interval is important for soil water profile distribution retrieval with the HF, and the shorter the observation interval, the shorter the time required to achieve actual soil water content. However, the retrieval results are not very accurate at a depth of 100 cm. Also it is complex to determine the weighting coefficient and the error attenuation parameter in the HF assimilation. In this article, the trial‐and‐error method was used to determine the weighting coefficient and the error attenuation parameter. After the first establishment of limited range of the parameters, ‘the best parameter set’ was selected from the range of values. For the soil conditions investigated, the HF assimilation results are better than the open‐loop results. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land-ice teleconnections of cold climatic periods during the last Glacial/Interglacial transition

Independent calendar year chronologies are a basic requirement for the establishment of high resolution land-ice teleconnections. The annually laminated Meerfelder Maar record provides both an independent chronology, established by varve counting, and high resolution lithological proxy data for the period of the last Glacial/Interglacial transition. These data reveal a series of four periods of climatic deterioration coinciding with negative isotopic deviations in the GRIP record signal, thus demonstrating the synchronicity of environment changes in Western Germany and temperature shifts in Greenland. The terrestrial data supports a further sub-division of the event stratigraphy based on the GRIP core, by introducing the cold event GI-1c2 between 13 500 and 13 400 calendar years BP. Multiproxy analyses reveal that the environmental response at Meerfelder Maar was not linear throughout the Lateglacial but was modified by local processes. A change in the response of the lake environment to climate deterioration was observed during sub-stage GI-1b (Gerzensee oscillation), the only event with gradual rather than abrupt transitions. The two-fold character of the Younger Dryas as seen in the GRIP record is more pronounced in the Meerfelder Maar record. This lithological signal occurred with a delay of 60 years to the GRIP signal, and has been linked to a shift in the catchment. It is proposed that the trigger for this shift was a trend towards a more humid second half of the Younger Dryas. Received: 21 May 1999 / Accepted: 18 August 1999     

Isotopes and geochemistry in a managed aquifer recharge scheme: a case study of fresh water injection at the Damascus University Campus,Syria

A combination of stable isotopes (¹⁸O and ²H) and hydrochemistry has been applied to investigate storage processes in relation to aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) of the shallow alluvial Quaternary aquifer in Damascus basin. The stored water, entirely taken from the Figeh springs during flood periods, was injected in a single well having a brackish groundwater. Water samples were collected from four observation wells drilled in the Damascus University Campus (DUC) site during a 3‐year period (2006–2008). The injectant water, which deviates in its chemical and isotopic signatures from that of the ambient groundwater, shows that the stored water plume remains within close proximity to the injection well (IW) (<≈ 100 m). Thus, only two wells (W13 and W14) located at a distance less than 80 m from the injection point were affected by this injection. The observation wells located at longer distances from the IW (≈145 m and ≈ 600 m for wells W15 and WHz, respectively) were completely unaffected by the injection. Although most of the chemical and isotopic parameters usefully reflected the mixing process that occurs between the injectant water and ambient groundwater, the stable isotope (¹⁸O) and chloride (Cl⁻) were the most sensitive parameters that quickly reflect this signature. Using a simple mass balance, the calculated proportion of injectant water reaching the well W13 was in the range of 50–90%. This proportion was even lower (30–55%) in the case of well W14. Although the drought event prevailing during this study did not much help to inject further amounts of water, higher than the injected volume (0·2416 M m³) and also not favourable to better evaluate the fate and subsurface hydrological processes, these findings offer encouragement to continue the ASR activities, as an alternative way for better management of water resources in this basin facing intensive problems. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

State of the art of modelling two-phase flow in fractured rock

 Two-phase flow in fractured rock is an important phenomenon for a range of practical problems, not the least of which is non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) contamination of groundwater. Although multiphase systems have long been studied in the petroleum field, in the hydrogeological field progress has only just reaches the point where models are being developed. Scale effect is one of the main issues of concern. Although models presented in this paper have the potential to provide useful predictions, they can only be used to investigate a variety of possible scenarios with parameters being specified in the form of distribution of values. The calibration and validation of all but the simplest of these models poses a formidable task, with great demands on hydrogeologists and geophysicists to provide adequate data. Received: 20 May 1996 · Accepted: 19 August 1996