基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

An Example of Island-Arc Petrogenesis: Geochemistry and Petrology of the Southern Luzon Arc, Philippines

Volcanism throughout the Luzon arc is associated with eastwardsubduction of the South China Sea floor along the Manila Trench.The southern section of the arc, the focus of this study, extendsfrom the Lingayen-Dingalan fault to the small islands just southof Luzon. Two segments appear to exist along this section ofthe arc the northern Bataan and southern Mindoro segments whichare separated by the Macolod Corridor. The volcanic rocks have typical arc phenocryst mineralogies:olivine, clinopyroxene, plagioclase, and titanomagnetite inthe most mafic rocks and clinopyroxene, plagioclase, orthopyroxene,titanomagnetite, ? amphibole in the more felsic samples. Complexzoning, sieve textures, and decoupling of incompatible traceelements suggest that processes such as assimilation have takenplace. The rocks from the study area range from basalts to rhyolitesand show typical calc-alkaline features. The rocks of the MacolodCorridor and Mindoro segment are particularly enriched in largeion lithophile elements (LILE), light rare earth elements (LREE),and radiogenic Sr compared with the Bataan segment. The datafall within the mantle array on Sr-Nd isotopic diagrams andgrade toward higher Sr and lower Nd isotopic values from northto south. A likely source for the volcanics of this study is either amid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB)-type mantle that undergoes higherdegrees of partial melting than regions involved in MORB generationor a previously depleted source. We suggest that the high fieldstrength element (HFSE) anomalies have been derived throughdifferential element partitioning during fluid transport fromthe subducted lithosphere to the mantle wedge. Continental crustal material seems to play a significant roleparticularly in the Macolod Corridor and the Mindoro segment,based on the high LILE, La/Sm ratios, radiogenic Sr isotopes,and ¹⁸O values. The Macolod Corridor and the Mindoro segmenthave undergone source contamination by crustal material fromthe North Palawan-Mindoro crustal block either during the collisionof this block with the Manila Trench or by subduction of sedimentsrich in this crustal material. A similar component has alsobeen detected in the Bataan segment but in minor amounts. Thetrace element and isotopic differences between the northernand southern sections of the arc are interpreted in terms ofvariable composition (i. e., variable amounts of a crustal componentintroduced from the Palawan-Mindoro crustal terrain) of themetasomatic fluids released into the source.     

鱼卡煤田大煤沟组高分辨率层序地层特征及聚煤规律

利用高分辨率层序地层学理论和技术方法,综合地震、测井、岩芯和煤质资料对柴达木盆地北缘鱼卡煤田中下侏罗统大煤沟组地层河湖三角洲沉积体系进行高分辨率层序地层学分析,从中识别出短期、中期、长期3个级别的基准面旋回层序,划分出向上"变深"非对称型、向上"变浅"非对称型及对称型3种短期基准面旋回基本结构类型。依据等时地层对比法则进行不同级次基准面旋回层序的联井对比,建立了大煤沟组的等时地层格架,在等时地层格架内进行了煤层对比,并在等时地层格架内分析了聚煤规律。     

火试金法测定铜精矿中金含量结果的不确定度评定

对火试金法测定铜精矿中金含量的结果进行不确定度评定。分析了铜精矿样品称量、铜精矿样品的不均匀性和配料处理,以及金粒称量等因素对金含量测量结果不确定度的影响,并得出火试金法测量铜精矿中金含量的扩展不确定度。     

Modeling of water–rock interactions in an aquitard of sandy clay in the coastal area near Beihai,China

Unconsolidated sand, gravel and clay deposits near Beihai and in the Leizhou Peninsula in southern China form an unconfined aquifer, aquitard and a confined aquifer. Water and soil samples were collected from the two aquifers in the coastal Beihai area for the determination of chemical compositions, minerals and soluble ions. Hydrogeochemical modeling of three flow paths through the aquitard are carried out using PHREEQC to determine water–rock interactions along the flow paths. The results indicate that the dissolution of anorthite, fluorite, halite, rhodochrosite and CO₂, and precipitation of potash feldspar and kaolinite may be occurring when groundwater leaks through the aquitard from the unconfined aquifer to the confined aquifer. Cation exchanges between Na and Ca can also happen along the flow paths.     

两千年来黑河流域水资源平衡估算与下游水环境演变驱动分析

利用地方史志、历史地理、树木年轮和近代器测记录相关的黑河流域历史时期人口变动、水土资源开发利用、下游湖泊变化、流域水资源和气候变化等资料, 通过对比上游出山水资源量、中游人类活动水资源利用量和下游湖泊面积变化, 在千年-百年时间尺度上对流域水资源平衡进行了估算, 并分析了历史时期各阶段下游湖泊水环境和天然绿洲演变过程和驱动机制. 研究结果表明: 在黑河流域, 气候变化条件下的上游山区水资源总量和中游走廊平原区绿洲人类活动用水后下泄的水资源量, 决定了下游水环境演变过程;在两千年来显现出不同历史阶段的流域水资源平衡模式和下游水环境演变特征, 以及气候变化和人类活动在不同历史时期的耦合驱动机制.     

中祁连东段什川杂岩基的岩石化学特征及年代学研究

祁连造山带被托菜南山-了高山构造带及宗务隆山-贵得构造带分为北祁连、中祁连及南祁连构造带。什川岩基位于中祁连构造带东部,由闪长岩、斜长花岗岩、二长花岗岩组成;对二长花岗岩进行U-Pb单颗粒锆石微区LA-ICP-MS同位素测定,获得444.6Ma及414.3Ma两组加权平均年龄,前者代表岩石的形成年龄,后者代表构造热事件年龄。二长花岗岩主量元素W(SiO_2)=68.66%～80.77%,w(K_2O)/w(Na_2O)>1和A/CNK介于0.95～1.21间,总体为钾质钙碱性过铝质花岗岩。岩石富集LILE元素(K、Th、Rb、Ba等),亏损HFSE元素(Ta、Nb、Y等);稀土元素总量较高(∑REE多介于109.05×10~(-6)～322.66×10~(-6)),轻重稀土强烈分馏(∑LREE/∑HREE介于7.92～31.68),稀土元素分配模式为轻稀土富集型,具中等-强Eu负异常(δEu=0.26～0.58)。岩石矿物组合及岩石地球化学特征共同表明,什川岩基为中上地壳泥砂质岩石部分熔融而成,形成温度较低,为加厚地壳拆沉熔融成因。这为祁连造山带构造演化及其深部动力学机制研究提供了新的资料。     

Copula函数在多变量水文分析计算中的应用及研究进展

综述了多变量水文分析计算方法及存在的问题.系统地介绍了Copula函数的基本理论与方法,分析探讨Copula函数在多变量水文计算领域的适用性及优越性.总结了Copula函数应用的关键技术,包括参数估计、拟合检验及类型选择等,并展望了Copula函数的研究应用前景.     

Diel Patterns in Chlorophyll <Emphasis Type="Italic">a</Emphasis> Specific Absorption Coefficient and Absorption Efficiency Factor of Picoplankton

Diel patterns in the chlorophyll a specific absorption coefficient of surface picoplankton, a*_pico (γ) (m²·[mg chlorophyll a]⁻¹), were studied at 7 stations under daily cycle of in situ light condition in the western subarctic Pacific and Japan Sea. All the data were normalized by dividing the anomaly with daily averaged a*_pico (γ). Opposite diel patterns were observed for the normalized a*_pico (443) and a*_pico (675) with maximum toward dawn or dusk and minimum toward midday at 4 stations under low-irradiance (LI) conditions and vice versa at 3 stations under high-irradiance (HI) conditions. The absorption efficiency factors at red absorption peak, Q _a (675), were determined by reconstruction with intracellular chlorophyll a concentration and cell diameter. The normalized Q _a (675) also showed diel pattern with maximum toward midday and minimum toward dawn or dusk under LI. The diel pattern in a*_pico (675) and Q _a (675) were primarily caused by changes in intracellular chlorophyll a concentration due to photoadaptation under LI. The diel pattern in a*_pico (443) was influenced by pigmentation, as recognized by blue to red ratio [a*_pico (443)/a*_pico (675)] under HI. This study proposed that the opposite diel pattern in a*_pico (γ) might occur for a wide range of algal species. The results presented here have important consequences for the interpretation of diel variations in optical properties observed in the open ocean.