Wind and freshwater influence over hydrocarbon dispersal on Patos Lagoon, Brazil

The two-dimensional barotropic, hydrodynamic and transport model MOHID is applied to the Patos Lagoon system using a nested modelling approach to reproduce both the lagoon and estuary hydrodynamics. A new Lagrangian oil spill model is presented and used to simulate a hypothetical oil spill in the estuary. Hydrodynamic fields are validated and used to force the oil model. Results show that the hydrodynamics of this system is mainly controlled by the wind and freshwater discharge. The dispersion, concentration and thickness evolution of the oil in the first day after the spill is determined by the equilibrium between these two factors. The freshwater discharge is the major factor controlling the oil dispersion for discharges greater than 5000 m3 while the wind assumes control for lower discharge amounts. The results presented are a first step toward a coastal management tool for the Patos Lagoon.     

The spatial focus of U.S. interstate migration flows

"Despite the widespread interest in the changing geographies of national migration regimes, it is somewhat remarkable that no widely accepted measure of the spatial concentration or focus exhibited by such geographies has emerged. We examine four of the most popular indices of inequality in this paper and contrast their performance as measures of spatial focus. Adopting the coefficient of variation as our preferred alternative, we go on to examine the spatial focus of aggregate interstate migration steams in the U.S. over time. Then we consider disaggregations of the migration streams by age, race and nativity, and examine the role of states as national redistributors of these same subpopulations."     

利用单一的和集合的方法预告区域预报技巧

本文利用平均海平面气压的模式预报误差(MFE)的3个预告因子研究了预告澳大利亚有限区域模式36小时预报技巧的可能。两个预告因子使用单一预报:其中1个以对于初始分析和预报的MFE的统计回归为基础;另1个因子利用了预报的持续性程度。第3个因子应用了与其它NWP中心的预报集合偏差。根据5个月的逐日36小时预报,发现了上述预告因子与MFE的相关系数分别是0.58、0.18和0.40。用最佳线性方法把上述3个因子组合后与MFE的相关系数增加到0.71。用两个月的独立资料集进一步对组合因子进行试验,得出的相关系数是0.67。因此,把这种方法应用于独立的和非独立的资料中,可以解释MFE方差的近50％。这证明了这种方法对于在总体上鉴别模式预报好坏有业务应用价值。澳大利亚东南部的实例研究,进一步证明了这些预告因子在整个预报区域中可以相当好地鉴别预报技巧。     

The mean value concept in mono-linear regression of multi-variables and its application to trace studies in geosciences

The "mean value concept" in a mono-linear regression of multi-variables is clarified.Its applications to reconstruction of the past 90-year salinity of the sea surface water in Xisha Islands and to tracing the past 80 ka paleo-geomagnetic events from the Luochuan loess 10Be record are introduced in detail,which show the significance and the potential of the "mean value concept" in geoscience research.     

中生代燕山褶皱冲断带的构造演化—以河北省和辽宁省为重点的研究

从渤海湾和辽宁省开始 ,燕山山脉沿北纬 40°左右一直向西延伸到河北和内蒙古的边界。继续向西 ,以太古宙为基底的燕山山脉被上第三系所覆盖 ;因此 ,虽然内蒙古的阴山很可能就是燕山向西的延伸 ,但还缺乏有力的证据。中生代燕山褶皱冲断带以陆源沉积、岩浆作用和构造变形 (包括多期的褶皱作用 ,挤压、伸展及走滑断层作用 )为特征。对北京、冀北与辽西地区侵入岩及火山岩的野外工作及测年 (U Pb,40 Ar 39Ar方法 )研究揭示出该区中生代复杂的构造变形特征 ;而这种构造变形特征被归因于 :(1)中生代以前 (二叠纪到中生代早期 )复杂的早期变形序列 ,以及 (2 )中生代时期交替发生的主要构造形迹向南和向北的构造汇聚作用。燕山在中侏罗世之前 (早于 180 Ma)向南运动的低角度的逆冲断层发育在一条二叠纪三叠纪岩浆弧的南部 ,太古宙基底及元古宙和显生宙盖层均卷入其中。该次推覆作用可能是 (1)古生代时期蒙古弧与安第斯型的大陆弧沿华北板块的北部边缘发生碰撞的后果 ,或 (2 ) (北部陆块 )向南俯冲于华北太古宙“克拉通”之下时形成的 ,类似于美国科迪勒拉型的弧后、前陆褶皱冲断带。此次褶皱冲断发生之后 ,该推覆断层的上盘经历了广泛的剥蚀 ,随后中侏罗世火山沉积地层同时沉积在上、下盘之上。我们的研究表明     

“杰森1号”卫星检测到2004年12月26日海啸

根据已发表的报告，卫星测高仪在过去只检测到一次波辐相当小的海洋中的海啸波(Okal et al，1999)。2004年12月海啸显著地改变了这种图象。这次事件是自1970年代开始进行卫星测高以来发生的最大的事件。目前在轨道上的仪器可以相当高分辨率(海上5km范围平均几厘米)测量海面高度，不过仅能沿其轨道测量，不能提供事件的全景图象。而且它们也不可能安排在最佳位置在震源附近进行早期监测。