Chlorine-36 and C chronology support a limited last glacial maximum across central chukotka, northeastern Siberia, and no Beringian ice sheet

The Pekulney Mountains and adjacent Tanyurer River valley are key regions for examining the nature of glaciation across much of northeast Russia. Twelve new cosmogenic isotope ages and 14 new radiocarbon ages in concert with morphometric analyses and terrace stratigraphy constrain the timing of glaciation in this region of central Chukotka. The Sartan Glaciation (Last Glacial Maximum) was limited in extent in the Pekulney Mountains and dates to 20,000 yr ago. Cosmogenic isotope ages > 30,000 yr as well as non-finite radiocarbon ages imply an estimated age no younger than the Zyryan Glaciation (early Wisconsinan) for large sets of moraines found in the central Tanyurer Valley. Slope angles on these loess-mantled ridges are less than a few degrees and crest widths are an order of magnitude greater than those found on the younger Sartan moraines. The most extensive moraines in the lower Tanyurer Valley are most subdued implying an even older, probable middle Pleistocene age. This research provides direct field evidence against Grosswald’s Beringian ice-sheet hypothesis.     

Modelling inter-annual and spatial variability of ice cover in a temperate lake with complex morphology

The formation of ice cover on lakes alters heat and energy transfer with the water column. The fraction of surface area covered by ice and the timing of ice-on and ice-off therefore affects hydrodynamics and the seasonal development of stratification and related ecosystem processes. Multi-year model simulations of temperate lake ecosystems that freeze partially or completely therefore require simulation of the formation and duration of ice cover. Here we present a multi-year hydrodynamic simulation of an alpine lake with complex morphology (Lower Lake Constance, LLC) using the three-dimensional (3D) model Aquatic Ecosystem Model (AEM3D) over a period of 9 years. LLC is subdivided into three basins (Gnadensee, Zeller See and Rheinsee) which differ in depth, morphological features, hydrodynamic conditions and ice cover phenology and thickness. Model results were validated with field observations and additional information on ice cover derived from a citizen science approach using information from social media. The model reproduced the occurrence of thin ice as well as its inter-annual variability and differentiated the frequency and extent of ice cover between the three sub-basins. It captured that full ice cover occurs almost each winter in Gnadensee, but only rarely in Zeller See and Rheinsee. The results indicate that the 3D model AEM3D is suitable for simulating long-term dynamics of thin ice cover in lakes with complex morphology and inter-annual changes in spatially heterogeneous ice cover.     

Characterizing Non-Industrial Private Forest Landowners' Forest Management Engagement and Advice Sources

Non-industrial private forestland (NIPF) owners have options for engagement by following management strategies that reduce wildfire risk on their forestlands. Forest management engagement is a broad term with underlying categories and management implications. To better understand these categories, we examine interview data on the engagement of forest landowners from a case study of private forestland owner perspectives in northeast Oregon, USA. NIPF landowners outline two types of forest management engagement, one for property and one for community-focused forestland management. NIPF owners describe actions for engagement in public forestland management and how these actions differ from engagement in private management. Additionally, NIPF owners establish barriers to engagement in both public and private forestland management. Our findings can be used to better identify unengaged private forestland owners in the U.S. West, informing the design and implementation of extension and outreach for NIPF owners.     

Orogenesis and Basin Development: U-Pb Detrital Zircon Age Constraints on Evolution of the Late Paleozoic St. Marys Basin, Central Mainland Nova Scotia

The St. Marys Basin, along the southern flank of the composite Late Paleozoic Magdalen Basin in the Canadian Appalachians and along the Avalon-Meguma terrane boundary, contains Late Devonian-Early Carboniferous continental clastic rocks of the Horton Group that were deposited in fluvial and lacustrine environments after the peak of the Acadian orogeny. SHRIMP II (Geological Survey of Canada) data on approximately 100 detrital zircons from three samples of Horton Group rocks from the St. Marys Basin show that most of the zircons have been involved in a multistage history, recycled from clastic rocks in the adjacent Meguma and Avalonian terranes. Although there is a minor contribution from Early Silurian (411 Ma) and Late Devonian suites (ca. 380-370 Ma), Neoproterozoic (ca. 700-550 Ma) and Paleoproterozoic (ca. 2.0-2.2 Ga) zircon populations predominate, with a minor contribution from ca. 1.0-, 1.2-, and 1.8-Ga zircons. Published U-Pb single-zircon analyses on clastic sedimentary rocks indicate that the Meguma and Avalon terranes have different populations of detrital zircons, sourced from discrete portions (Amazonian and West African cratons) of the ancient Gondwanan margin. Both terranes contain Neoproterozoic and Late Archean populations. The SHRIMP data, in conjunction with published sedimentological and geochemical data, indicate that the Horton Group basin-fill sediments are largely the result of rapid uplift and erosion of Meguma terrane metasedimentary and granitoid rocks immediately to the south of the St. Marys Basin during the waning stages of the Acadian orogeny. Regional syntheses indicate that this uplift occurred before and during deposition and was a consequence of dextral ramping of the Meguma terrane over the Avalon terrane along the southern flank of the Magdalen Basin.     

Education,politics and opinions about climate change evidence for interaction effects

U.S. public opinion regarding climate change has become increasingly polarized in recent years, as partisan think tanks and others worked to recast an originally scientific topic into a political wedge issue. Nominally “scientific” arguments against taking anthropogenic climate change seriously have been publicized to reach informed but ideologically receptive audiences. Reflecting the success of such arguments, polls have noted that concern about climate change increased with education among Democrats, but decreased with education among Republicans. These observations lead to the hypothesis that there exist interaction (non-additive) effects between education or knowledge and political orientation, net of other background factors, in predicting public concern about climate change. Two regional telephone surveys, conducted in New Hampshire (n = 541) and Michigan (n = 1, 008) in 2008, included identical climate-change questions that provide opportunities to test this hypothesis. Multivariate analysis of both surveys finds significant interactions. These empirical results fit with theoretical interpretations and several other recent studies. They suggest that the classically identified social bases of concern about the environment in general, and climate in particular, have shifted in recent years. Narrowcast media, including the many Web sites devoted to discrediting climate-change concerns, provide ideal conduits for channeling contrarian arguments to an audience predisposed to believe and electronically spread them further. Active-response Web sites by climate scientists could prove critical to counterbalancing contrarian arguments.     

Plate tectonics began in Neoproterozoic time,and plumes from deep mantle have never operated

Archean, Paleoproterozoic, and Mesoproterozoic rocks, assemblages, and structures differ greatly both from each other and from modern ones, and lack evidence for subduction and seafloor spreading such as is widespread in Phanerozoic terrains. Most specialists nevertheless apply non-actualistic plate-tectonic explanations to the ancient terrains and do not consider alternatives. This report evaluates popular concepts with multidisciplinary information, and proposes options. The key is fractionation by ca. 4.45 Ga of the hot young Earth into core, severely depleted mantle, and thick mafic protocrust, followed by still-continuing re-enrichment of upper mantle from the top. This is opposite to the popular assumption that silicate Earth is still slowly and unidirectionally fractionating. The protocrust contained most material from which all subsequent crust was derived, either directly, or indirectly after downward recycling. Tonalite, trondhjemite, and granodiorite (TTG), dominant components of Archean crust, were derived mostly by partial melting of protocrust. Dense restitic protocrust delaminated and sank into hot, weak dunite mantle, which, displaced upward, enabled further partial melting of protocrust. Sinkers enriched the upper mantle, in part maintaining coherence as distinct dense rocks, and in part yielding melts that metasomatized depleted-mantle dunite to more pyroxenic and garnetiferous rocks. Not until ca. 3.6 Ga was TTG crust cool enough to allow mafic and ultramafic lavas, from both protocrust and re-enriched mantle, to erupt to the surface, and then to sag as synclinal keels between rising diapiric batholiths; simultaneously upper crust deformed ductily, then brittly, above slowly flowing hot lower TTG crust. Paleoproterozoic and Mesoproterozoic orogens appear to be largely ensialic, developed from very thick basin-filling sedimentary and volcanic rocks on thinned Archean or Paleoproterozoic crust and remaining mafic protocrust, above moderately re-enriched mantle. Subduction, and perhaps the continent/ocean lithospheric dichotomy, began ca. 850 Ma – although fully modern plate-tectonic processes began only in Ordovician time – and continued to enrich the cooling mantle in excess of partial melts that contributed to new crust. “Plumes” from deep mantle do not operate in the modern Earth and did not operate in Precambrian time.     

The importance of health co-benefits in macroeconomic assessments of UK Greenhouse Gas emission reduction strategies

We employ a single-country dynamically-recursive Computable General Equilibrium model to make health-focussed macroeconomic assessments of three contingent UK Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation strategies, designed to achieve 2030 emission targets as suggested by the UK Committee on Climate Change. In contrast to previous assessment studies, our main focus is on health co-benefits additional to those from reduced local air pollution. We employ a conservative cost-effectiveness methodology with a zero net cost threshold. Our urban transport strategy (with cleaner vehicles and increased active travel) brings important health co-benefits and is likely to be strongly cost-effective; our food and agriculture strategy (based on abatement technologies and reduction in livestock production) brings worthwhile health co-benefits, but is unlikely to eliminate net costs unless new technological measures are included; our household energy efficiency strategy is likely to breakeven only over the long term after the investment programme has ceased (beyond our 20 year time horizon). We conclude that UK policy makers will, most likely, have to adopt elements which involve initial net societal costs in order to achieve future emission targets and longer-term benefits from GHG reduction. Cost-effectiveness of GHG strategies is likely to require technological mitigation interventions and/or demand-constraining interventions with important health co-benefits and other efficiency-enhancing policies that promote internalization of externalities. Health co-benefits can play a crucial role in bringing down net costs, but our results also suggest the need for adopting holistic assessment methodologies which give proper consideration to welfare-improving health co-benefits with potentially negative economic repercussions (such as increased longevity).     

The westerly acceleration phase of the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation as revealed in FGGE analyses: Research note

Abstract

The initial development of the westerly acceleration phase of the tropical quasi‐biennial oscillation in late 1979 was examined using FGGE analyses at the 20‐ and 10‐mb levels. The analysed winds were found to undergo strong equatorially‐centred westerly accelerations. These accelerations are narrower in meridional extent than those expected to result from the interaction of the Wallace‐Kousky Kelvin wave with the mean flow.