一种利用贝叶斯最小判别准则估计未来地震危险的新方法

提出了一种基于最大似然和贝叶斯最小判别准则的新预测方法,它的长处在于对样本数无特殊要求,所以,对低地震活动地区,此模型也能得到与时间有关的稳定的未来强震危险估计。最后,以华北地区为例,说明了本方法的可行性。     

藕塘古滑体在三峡水库形成后的稳定性分析

采用极限平衡和三维弹塑性有限元分析方法,对藕塘古滑体在三峡水库形成后的稳定性进行了计算分析。计算中考虑了水库水位变化、渗透压力、建筑荷载以及地震等诸多因素对滑体稳定性的影响,并给出了滑体失稳的临界破坏条件,为库区移民迁建新址的勘察工作提供了量化的论证。     

随机介质理论在深基坑稳定性分析中的应用

使用矿业工程中广为应用的随机介质理论和方法,计算深基坑开挖引起的地表及土体变形,并据此探讨深基坑边坡的稳定性。     

Silicon Isotope Geochemistry of Micro—Fine Disseminated Gold Deposits in SW Guizhou and NW Guangxi,China

Quartz was studied with respect to its silicon isotopic composition and cathodoluminescence in micro-fine disseminated gold deposits in SW Guizhou and NW Guangxi.The results showed that quartz in wall rocks.ores and that in association with hydrothermal silicification are distinctive in silicon isotopes and cathodoluminescence characters.Quartz in association with primary silicification is non-luminescent while that in wall rocks and associated with secondary silicification exhibits striking luminescence.Based on the dynamic fractionation of silicon isotopes,it is suggested that the mineralization was accompanied by rapid transport of aprimary siliceous fluid along the major deep fault system into subordinate faults before ore components deposited in favorable strata via penetration and metasomatism.Therefore,a deep origin is implicit for gold deposits of this type.     

Preliminary results of measuring the crustal deformation in Qinghai-Xizang area using GPS technique

GPS repetition measurement tbta in Qinghai-Xizatlg (Tibetan) area in 1992 and 1994 have been used to determine the change rates of seven bascline vectors of Lhasa-Wenquan, etc. It is the first time to obtain the direct observation results of the large-scale crustal horizontal motions in this area. Thesc preliminary results also for the first time provide the direct observation evidence for some important geophysical and geological viewpoints, such as the northward gradual reduce of the effect of the northward push-pressing to Eurasian continent by Indian Plate in the Qinghai-Xizang area, having a southward strike slip movement of the Chuan-Dian diamond block, etc.     

Estimating open boundary conditions from coastal tidal observations by adjoint approach

A numerical study for estimating the tidal open boundary conditions of a shelf current modrl from tb coastal tidal observations is presented. The method is based on the optimal control/adjoint method. A lrast square fitting of the model state to simulated data is used. Two ideal domains and coastlines are considered. Using the IAP shallow. water model and its adjoint model, some identical twin experiments are carried out to test efficiency and lirnilsd of the method. The results show that the adjoint method can efficiently estimate the open boundary conditions well for gulf/bay like domains. The adjoint method seems to have great potential to improve the accuracy of tide and shelf current modeling in coastal regions. Project supported hy the National Natural Science Fuundation of China (Grant No. 49376256)     

Processes of the deposition and vicissitude of Mu Us Desert, China since 150 ka B.P.

“Milanggouwan stratigraphical section” named lately takes down 27 cycles of alternately evolutionary histories of desert depositions in the Mu Us area with the fluviolacustrine facies and palaeosols since 150 ka B. P. Studies show that the sedimentary form was induced by the growth and decline and confrontation each other between the winter monsoon and the summer monsoon of East Asia in the past 150 ka. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 49473192).     

穿过张家口—渤海地震带西缘的折射剖面所揭示的地壳上地幔构造与速度结构

近期完成的北北东向的繁峙～太仆寺旗宽角反射／折射剖面,由山西断隆进入内蒙地轴,它穿过了山西地震带的大同～阳高震区和北西西向张家口～渤海地震带的西北缘。其主要目的是探测研究张～渤地震带及其两侧壳幔构造与速度结构的差异及其与地震活动的相关性。结果表明：张～渤地震带壳内界面及莫霍面较其两侧有１．０～２．０ｋｍ的不同程度的上隆;在阳原～张家口之间地壳结构纵向与横向非均匀性明显,上地壳和下地壳上部有局部的速度逆转,下地壳下部的低速层由山西断隆一直延伸至内蒙地轴,上地幔顶部的速度梯度明显增大;在阳原、怀安和张北附近分别存在着延伸至莫霍面的地壳深断裂带;在内蒙地轴一系列壳内界面不明显。     

1976年唐山地震发震断裂的活动性研究

震后野外考察及航空摄影发现的地裂缝带,说明唐山断裂与１９７６年唐山７．８级大地震的发震构造有密切关系。用卫星遥感信息和浅层地震勘探结果对唐山断裂的活动性做了新的研究。卫星图像解释结果表明：震前一年多时间内,ＮＥ向的唐山断裂被ＮＮＷ向断裂截切而ＮＷＷ向断裂受到牵引,因而显示出右旋走滑的活动形迹。浅层地震勘探结果则证明,唐山断裂是倾向ＮＷ,高倾角的右旋走滑正断层,它断错了全新统（Ｑ４）、晚更新统（Ｑ３）、中更新统（Ｑ２）和早更新统（Ｑ１）地层     

张北6.2级地震发生在小震条带上

分析晋、冀、蒙交界地区的地震分布格局,发现张北地震前存在小地震条带。条带由２０余年持续发生的小震组成,与华北地壳应力场最大剪切应力方向相同,是燕山－渤海地震构造带的西延段落。６．２级强震发生在条的东端。文中讨论了张北地震地点预测失误的原因,提出采用地震学和地震地质学交叉,融合的思路,分析观今小地震活动图象、震源机制资料,从构造学,运动学,动力学角度,研究地壳深部地震构造的方法。