上海地面沉降模型研究及存在问题

文章主要对当今国内外地面沉降模型研究进展进行了简要的回顾和总结。针对上海地面沉降现象，就准三维水流－一维耦俣沉降模型中存在的科学问题进行了阐述，并就模型的下一步研究提出了科学的目标。     

Discovery of Radiolarian Fossils from the Aiketik Group at the Western End of the South Tianshan Mountains of Chinaand Its Implications

The Aiketik Group, distributed at the western end of the South Tianshan Mountains, China, is an important lithostratigraphic unit involved in the South Tianshan orogen. It is separated from the adjacent rocks by faults. Generally, the geologists ascribed it to the Upper Carboniferous according to Pseudostaffella sp., Profusulinella sp. and Fusulinella sp. found from the limestone and sandy limestone of Aiketik. Our radiolarian fossils were obtained from the chert samples collected from the Haladaok section located at the upper Tuoshihan River. The fossils mainly include Albaillella undulata Deflandre, Albaillella paradoxa Deflandre, Albaillella sp. aff. A. paradoxa Deflandre, Albaillella sp. cf. A. deflandrei Gourmelon, Albaillella sp., Albaillella excelsa Ishiga, Kito and Imoto (?), Belowea variabilis (Ormiston et Lane), Callella cf. C. parvispinosa Won, Entactinia cf. E. tortispina Ormiston et Lane, Entactinia aff. E. tortispina Ormiston et Lane, Entactinia variospina Won, Entactinia sp., Eostylodicty     

塔里木盆地晚泥盆世及石炭纪岩相古地理

塔里木盆地上泥盆统及石炭系包括5个组，自下而上分别为上泥盆统东河塘组和甘木里克组，石炭系巴楚组、卡拉沙依组和小海子组。其中东河塘组和甘木里克组地质时代为晚泥盆世，巴楚组地质时代为早石炭世杜内早中期，卡拉沙依组地质时代为晚杜内中期至巴什基尔期，小海子组地层时代为巴什基尔末期至莫斯科早期。岩石类型有碎屑岩和碳酸盐岩，还有膏盐岩，并夹薄层火山碎屑岩。沉积相主要为海陆过渡相组合，包括河流、三角洲、滨岸、浅海、碳酸盐岩台地、台地边缘6种相和12种亚相及33种微相。晚泥盆世东河塘期至石炭纪发生过4次较大的海侵，海侵范围由下而上逐渐增大，至晚石炭世小海子期海侵规模最大。东河塘期开始海侵，海水由西而东侵入，此时周缘碎屑物质供应充分，主要为无障壁海岸和障壁海岸沉积，西南缘为浅海相沉积。巴楚期晚期，海侵范围进一步扩大，物源向北或北东方向退却，陆源碎屑物质注入急剧减少，形成了一套富含生屑的碳酸盐岩地层，发育了开阔台地和局限台地亚相沉积。卡拉沙依期中期海侵规模比巴楚期更大，海水深度加大，西部为开阔台地亚相沉积，其余地区为局限台地亚相沉积。卡拉沙依期晚期和小海子期海侵达最大，向东扩展，大部分地区为开阔台地亚相沉积，东部地区为局限台地亚相沉积，塔北大部分地区缺失。     

西昌锦屏地区的旅游地质资源

作为一种新兴的旅游形式，地质旅游因以地质考察与旅游活动的有机结合而达到追求返璞归真与休闲猎奇的目的。本文重点介绍了西昌锦屏地区的几处自然景点和地质旅游路线。该地区的自然、地质景观极具开发潜力。     

Maximum-likelihood ambiguity resolution based on Bayesian principle

 Based on the Bayesian principle and the fact that GPS carrier-phase ambiguities are integers, the posterior distribution of the ambiguities and the position parameters is derived. This is then used to derive the maximum posterior likelihood solution of the ambiguities. The accuracy of the integer ambiguity solution and the position parameters is also studied according to the posterior distribution. It is found that the accuracy of the integer solution depends not only on the variance of the corresponding float ambiguity solution but also on its values. Received: 27 July 1999 / Accepted: 22 November 2000     

1998年夏季500hPa行星尺度环流系统对长江流域“二度梅”的影响

利用NCEP／NCAR1998年5－8月逐日500hPa高度场再分析资料及中国国家气象中心整编的同时段全国160站降水资料，就1998年夏季500hPa行星尺度环流系统对长江流域“二度梅”的影响进行了深入研究。结果发现，鄂霍次克海附近阻塞高压加强（减弱）和副热带西太平洋高压西部强度减弱（加强）的反位相变化是造成长江中下游和东北大部分地区的降水增加（减少）的重要原因。     

利用数字化雷达回波参数分析人工增雨播云条件

利用数字化测雨雷达观测的层状云雷达立体扫描资料和探空资料，分析得出层状云降水部分特征，并利用多元逐步回归获得催化作业效果指标y=2.0mm.h^-1，在使用雷达立体扫描资料进行人工增雨作业时指导方面做了探讨。     

Climate Change in China from 1880 to 1998 and its Impact on the Environmental Condition

The global mean surface air temperature (SAT) or the Northern Hemisphere mean SAT has increased since the late nineteenth century, but the mean precipitation around the world has not formed a definite tendency to increase. A lot of studies showed that different climate and environmental changes during the past 100 years over various regions in the world were experienced. The climate change in China over the past 100 years and its impact on China's environmental conditions needs to be investigated in more detail.Data sets of surface air temperature and atmospheric precipitation over China since 1880 up to the present are now available. In this paper, a drought index has been formulated corresponding to both the temperature and precipitation. Based on three series of temperature, precipitation, and drought index, interdecadal changes in all 7 regions of China and temperature differences among individual regions are analyzed. Some interesting facts are revealed using the wavelet transform method. In Northeast China, the aridification trend has become more serious since 1970s. Drought index in North China has also reached a high value during 1990s, which seems similar to that period 1920s–1940s. In NorthwestChina, the highest temperature appeared over the period 1930s–1940s. Along the Yangtze River valley in central eastern China and Southwest China, interdecadal high temperature occurred from 1920s to 1940s and in 1990s, but the drought climate mainly appeared from 1920s to early 1940s. In South China, temperature remained at a high value over the period 1910s–1940s,but the smaller-scale variation of drought index was remarkable from 1880 to 1998. Consequently, the quasi-20-year oscillation (smaller-scale variation) and the quasi-70-year oscillation (secular variation) obviously exist in temperature and precipitation series in different regions over China.Climate change and intensified human activity in China have induced certain environmental evolutions, such as the frequency change of dust-storm event in northern China, no-flow in the lower reaches of the Yellow River and the runoff variation in Northwest China. On the other hand, frequent floods along the Yangtze River and high frequency of drought disaster have resulted in tremendous economic losses in the last decade in China. The primary reason for these happenings may be attributed to the evolution of the monsoon system in East Asian.     

由APRGP97～APRGP99的GPS联测资料确定的亚太地区地壳形变

使用伪无基准（pseudo nonfiducial）算法、利用GIPSY软件，归算了APRGP97、APRGP98 和APRGP99的GPS资料．对大多数站所得解的站座标的精度:南北分量是1～2mm，东西分量是2～5mm，垂直分量是5～10mm；并初步获得亚太地区84个站在ITRF97中的运动速度，其水平方向的精度约为1～4mm/a．基于ITRF97速度场建立一个新的现今全球板块运动模型ITRF97VEL，由此获得这些站相对于该模型的现今形变速度，并对这些站相对欧亚板块的运动情况作了初步分析．      

南京地区中暑天气条件指数研究预报

本文采用南京地区1988－1997年每年夏季逐日各项气象要素及全市各医院同期重症中暑人数进行统计筛选出热夏年：1988年、1994年、1995年，对这三年中暑期重症中暑病例资料与气象资料进行相关统计分析，找出相关性较好的气象因子，经过方程化筛选，得出气温、湿度、气压、对中暑影响较大。三日滑动平均值为主要预报因子。设计中暑指数数学模式。根据中暑病病理、程度将中暑天气条件分三个等级，给出三个不同的中暑天气条件指数临界值，经过1998年、1999年试报验证，准确率较高，社会效益较好。该指数预测模式基本可行。