潜在地震灾害预测和评价神经网络系统及其若干问题

结合人工神经网络自身的特性和地震灾害预测研究的特点,本文应用神经网络模型,建立了潜在地震灾害预测和评价系统。针对网络模型参数设置、数据归一化、中间层神经元最优数目以及泛化分类评价指标等若干实际问题给出了实际可行的解决方案。通过大样本数据对网络的训练,形成了有识别和记忆功能的非线性预测和评价系统。对网络的测试和检验,论证了该系统在预测潜在地震灾害上的可行性和有效性。同时,从测试精度出发,探讨了这种预测网络存在的不足,并给出了相应的改进建议,为开展进一步的研究工作提供了参考。     

The conservation patterns of grassland ecosystem in response to the forage-livestock balance in North China

Being a key ecological security barrier and production base for grassland animal husbandry in China,the balance between grassland forage supply and livestock-carrying pressure in North China directly affects grassland degradation and restoration,thereby impacting grassland ecosystem services.This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal variation in grassland vegetation coverage,forage supply,and the balance between grassland forage supply and livestock-carrying pressure from 2000 to 2015 in North China.We then discuss the spatial pattern of grassland ecological conservation under the impacts of grassland degradation and restoration,and livestock-carrying pressure.Over the last 16 years,the total grassland area in North China decreased by about 16,000 km2,with vegetation coverage degraded by 6.7％ of the grasslands but significantly restored by another 5.4％ of grasslands.The provisioning of forage by natural grassland mainly increased over time,with an annual growth rate of approximately 0.3 kg/ha,but livestock-carrying pressure also increased continuously.The livestock-carrying pressure index without any supplementary feeding reached as high as 3.8.Apart from the potential livestock-carrying capacity in northeastern Inner Mongolia and the central Tibetan Plateau,most regions in North China are currently overloaded.Considering the actual supplementary feeding during the cold season,the livestock-carrying pressure index is about 3.1,with the livestock-carrying pressure mitigated in central and eastern Inner Mongolia.Assuming full supplementary feeding in the cold season,livestock-carrying pressure index will fall to 1.9,with the livestock-carrying pressure alleviated significantly in Inner Mongolia and on the Tibetan Plateau.Finally,we propose different conservation and development strategies to balance grassland ecological conservation and animal husbandry production in different regions of protected areas,pastoral areas,farming-pastoral ecotone,and farming areas,according to the grassland ecological protection patterns.     

Spatial variation and driving mechanism of soil organic carbon components in the alluvial/sedimentary zone of the Yellow River

Alluviation and sedimentation of the Yellow River are important factors influencing the surface soil structure and organic carbon content in its lower reaches. Selecting Kaifeng and Zhoukou as typical cases of the Yellow River flooding area, the field survey, soil sample collection, laboratory experiment and Geographic Information System(GIS) spatial analysis methods were applied to study the spatial distribution characteristics and change mechanism of organic carbon components at different soil depths. The results revealed that the soil total organic carbon(TOC), active organic carbon(AOC) and nonactive organic carbon(NOC) contents ranged from 0.05–30.03 g/kg, 0.01–8.86 g/kg and 0.02–23.36 g/kg, respectively. The TOC, AOC and NOC contents in the surface soil layer were obviously higher than those in the lower soil layer, and the sequence of the content and change range within a single layer was TOCNOCAOC. Geostatistical analysis indicated that the TOC, AOC and NOC contents were commonly influenced by structural and random factors, and the influence magnitudes of these two factors were similar. The overall spatial trends of TOC, AOC and NOC remained relatively consistent from the 0–20 cm layer to the 20–100 cm layer, and the transition between high-and low-value areas was obvious, while the spatial variance was high. The AOC and NOC contents and spatial distribution better reflected TOC spatial variation and carbon accumulation areas. The distribution and depth of the sediment, agricultural land-use type, cropping system, fertilization method, tillage process and cultivation history were the main factors impacting the spatial variation in the soil organic carbon(SOC) components. Therefore, increasing the organic matter content, straw return, applying organic manure, adding exogenous particulate matter and conservation tillage are effective measures to improve the soil quality and attain sustainable agricultural development in the alluvial/sedimentary zone of the Yellow River.     

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New patterns of urban development in China

1　ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＣｉｔｙｐｌａｙｓａｎｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔｒｏｌｅｉｎｔｈｅｐｒｏｃｅｓｓｏｆｒｅ ｇｉｏｎａｌｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃｄｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔ .Ｆｏｒｉｎｓｔａｎｃｅ ,ｉｎ 1996,ｔｈｅｔｏｔａｌｍｕｎｉｃｉｐａｌａｒｅａｓｏｆ 666ｃｉｔｉｅｓｏｎｌｙｃｏｖｅｒｅｄｔｈｅｐｒｏｐｏｒｔｉｏｎｏｆ 18.12ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｉｎｎａｔｉｏｎａｌｔｅｒｒｉｔｏｒｙ ,ａｎｄｂｕｉｌｔ ｕｐａｒｅａ 1.8ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔ .Ｂｕｔｔｈｅｙｐｒｏｄｕｃｅｄｔｈｅ 68.63ｐｅｒｃｅｎｔｏｆＧＤＰ(ＧｒｏｓｓＤｏ…     

发挥矿产资源优势加快丹徒经济发展

丹徒县位于苏南宁镇丘陵地区,矿产资源丰富,是我县的"四大优势" 之一.在实行经济体制、经济增长方式2个根本性转变和调整经济结构及产业、产品结构的过程中,在我县制定"十五"计划和15年规划中,如何发挥我县矿产资源优势,调整和规划我县矿业经济结构,加快矿业经济的发展,从而加快全县经济的发展,这是我们十分关注的问题.本文试图就这个问题谈些看法和意见.     

A comprehensive analysis of phenological changes in forest vegetation of the Funiu Mountains,China

Journal of Geographical Sciences - This paper reports the phenological response of forest vegetation to climate change (changes in temperature and precipitation) based on Moderate Resolution...     

Perceptions of Land Tenure Security in Rural China: The Impact of Land Reallocations and Certification

Abstract

Tenure security is commonly recognized as an important factor in stimulating long-term investments in land. Recent studies suggest that a distinction between legal, actual and perceived tenure security needs to be made in analyzing tenure security. This study discusses the relationships between legal, actual and perceived land tenure security in rural China, and empirically examines the impact of actual on perceived land tenure security by applying Probit models to household and village survey data collected in four provinces. Using household expectations about the absence of land reallocations within the next five years as the dependent variable, we find that tenure security is positively affected by the possession of land certificates in villages that periodically reallocated land but not in villages that did not do so. The estimated impact is larger for land certificates issued in the new round of land certification than for land certificates that were issued earlier.     

广州城市流浪乞讨者的空间管治与日常生活实践

以广州流浪乞讨者为研究对象,通过深度访谈等质性研究方法,解读针对流浪乞讨者的空间管治政策与手段,分析流浪乞讨者的日常生活实践与生境协商。研究发现：在地方城市政策对流动性与公共秩序限制的双重压力下,在流浪乞讨者的日常生活实践中,不仅有针对管治行动者而刻意为之的特殊营建,亦有基于程式化生活流程对自我身份认同的重塑与真情实感的展演。地方政府基于空间目标的救助与真实存在的日常生活实践存在着一种张力。研究关注了城市边缘群体日常生活对地理意义的主动塑造过程,对全面理解并规范管理中国城市流浪乞讨现象具有借鉴意义。     

中国物理海洋学研究70年:发展历程、学术成就概览

本文概略评述新中国成立70年来物理海洋学各分支研究领域的发展历程和若干学术成就。中国物理海洋学研究起步于海浪、潮汐、近海环流与水团,以及以风暴潮为主的海洋气象灾害的研究。随着国力的增强,研究领域不断拓展,涌现了大量具有广泛影响力的研究成果,其中包括:提出了被国际广泛采用的“普遍风浪谱”和“涌浪谱”,发展了第三代海浪数值模式;提出了“准调和分析方法”和“潮汐潮流永久预报”等潮汐潮流的分析和预报方法;发现并命名了“棉兰老潜流”,揭示了东海黑潮的多核结构及其多尺度变异机理等,系统描述了太平洋西边界流系;提出了印度尼西亚贯穿流的南海分支(或称南海贯穿流);不断完善了中国近海陆架环流系统,在南海环流、黑潮及其分支、台湾暖流、闽浙沿岸流、黄海冷水团环流、黄海暖流、渤海环流,以及陆架波方面均取得了深刻的认识;从大气桥和海洋桥两个方面对太平洋–印度洋–大西洋洋际相互作用进行了系统的总结;发展了浅海水团的研究方法,基本摸清了中国近海水团的分布和消长特征与机制,在大洋和极地水团分布及运动研究方面也做出了重要贡献;阐明了南海中尺度涡的宏观特征和生成机制,揭示了中尺度涡的三维结构,定量评估了其全球物质与能量输运能力;基本摸清了中国近海海洋锋的空间分布和季节变化特征,提出了地形、正压不稳定和斜压不稳定等锋面动力学机制;构建了“南海内波潜标观测网”,实现了对内波生成–演变–消亡全过程机理的系统认识;发展了湍流的剪切不稳定理论,提出了海流“边缘不稳定”的概念,开发了海洋湍流模式,提出了湍流混合参数化的新方法等;在海洋内部混合机制和能量来源方面取得了新的认识,并阐述了混合对海洋深层环流、营养物质输运等过程的影响;研发了全球浪–潮–流耦合模式,推出一系列海洋与气候模式;发展了可同化主要海洋观测数据的海洋数据同化系统和用于ENSO预报的耦合同化系统;建立了达到国际水准的非地转(水槽/水池)和地转(旋转平台)物理模 型实验平台;发展了ENSO预报的误差分析方法,建立了海洋和气候系统年代际变化的理论体系,揭示了中深层海洋对全球气候变化的响应;初步建成了中国近海海洋观测网;持续开展南北极调查研究;建立了台风、风暴潮、巨浪和海啸的业务化预报系统,为中国气象减灾提供保障;突破了国外的海洋技术封锁,研发了万米水深的深水水听器和海洋光学特性系列测量仪器;建立了溢油、危险化学品漂移扩散等预测模型,为伴随海洋资源开发所带来的风险事故的应急处理和预警预报提供科学支撑。文中引用的大量学术成果文献(每位第一作者优选不超过3篇)显示,经过70年的发展,中国物理海洋学研究培养了一支实力雄厚的科研队伍,这是最宝贵的成果。这支队伍必将成为中国物理海洋学研究攀登新高峰的主力军。