Modeling the history of Lake of the Woods since 11,000 cal yr B.P. using GIS

Because of differential isostatic rebound, many lakes in Canada have continued to change their extent and depth since retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Using GIS techniques, the changing configuration and bathymetry of Lake of the Woods in Ontario, Manitoba, and Minnesota were reconstructed for 12 points in time, beginning at 11,000 cal yr B.P. (9.6 ¹⁴C ka B.P.), and were also projected 500 years into the future, based on the assumption that Lake of the Woods continued to have a positive hydrological budget throughout the Holocene. This modeling was done by first compiling a bathymetric database and merging that with subaerial data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). This DEM file was then adjusted by: (1) isobase data derived from Lake Agassiz beaches prior to 9000 cal yr B.P. (8.1 ¹⁴C ka B.P.) and (2) modeled isostatic rebound trend analysis after 9000 cal yr B.P. Just after the end of the Lake Agassiz phase of Lake of the Woods, only the northernmost part of the basin contained water. Differential rebound has resulted in increasing water depth. In the first 3000 years of independence from Lake Agassiz, the lake transgressed >50 km to the south, expanding its area from 858 to 2857 km², and more than doubling in volume. Continued differential rebound after 6000 cal yr B.P. (5.2 ¹⁴C ka B.P.) has further expanded the lake, although today it is deepening by only a few cm per century at the southern end. In addition, climate change in the Holocene probably played a role in lake level fluctuations. Based on our calculation of a modern hydrological budget for Lake of the Woods, reducing runoff and precipitation by 65% and increasing evaporation from the lake by 40% would end overflow and cause the level of the lake to fall below the outlets at Kenora. Because this climate change is comparable to that recorded during the mid-Holocene warming across the region, it is likely that the area covered by the lake at this time would have been less than that determined from differential isostatic rebound alone.     

Freshwater Ostracodes in Quaternary Permafrost Deposits in the Siberian Arctic

Ostracode analysis was carried out on samples from ice-rich permafrost deposits obtained on the Bykovsky Peninsula (Laptev Sea). A composite profile was investigated that covers most of a 38-m thick permafrost sequence and corresponds to the last ca. 60 kyr of the Late Quaternary. The ostracode assemblages are similar to those known from European Quaternary lake deposits during cold stages. The ostracode habitats were small, shallow, cold, oligotrophic pools located in low centred ice wedge polygons or in small thermokarst depressions. In total, 15 taxa, representing 7 genera, were identified from 65 samples. The studied section is subdivided into six ostracode zones that correspond to Late Quaternary climatic and environmental stadial-interstadial variations established by other paleoenvironmental proxies: (1) cold and dry Zyrianian stadial (58–53 kyr BP); (2) warm and dry Karginian interstadial (48–34 kyr BP); (3) transition from the Karginian interstadial to the cold and dry Sartanian stadial (34–21 kyr BP); (4) transition from the Sartanian stadial to the warm and dry Late Pleistocene period, the Allerød (21–14 kyr BP); (5) transition from the Allerød to the warm and wet Middle Holocene (14–7 kyr BP); and (6) cool and wet Late Holocene (ca. 3 kyr BP). The abundance and diversity of the ostracodes will be used as an additional bioindicator for paleoenvironmental reconstructions of the Siberian Arctic.     

Relationships between Holocene sea-level variations,trophic development,and climatic change in Negra Lagoon,Southern Uruguay

Paleolimnological data are presented on trophic development, climatic change and sea level variations in Negra Lagoon, a 142 km² coastal lagoon in southern Uruguay. Using a sediment core that extended to the early Holocene, analyses of organic matter, carbonate, diatoms and opal phytoliths allowed us to track changes in trophic state and paleosalinity levels, which were closely related to Holocene sea level variation, temperature and humidity. Diatom Association Zones (DAZ) corresponding to transgressive events were dominated by marine/brackish taxa and relatively low organic matter values, while those DAZ corresponding to regressive events showed increases in brackish/freshwater diatoms and organic matter. Opal Phytoliths Association Zones (OPAZ) also were identified, temperature and humidity indices were calculated, and climatic trends were inferred. During the middle Holocene (i.e., ~5000–4000 yr BP), cool–dry climatic conditions were established. After ~4000 yr BP, a transition from cool to warm–humid conditions was observed, but fully warm humid conditions established only after ~1700 yr BP. Such climatic amelioration led to increases in trophic state.     

Paleolimnological investigations of anthropogenic environmental change in Lake Tanganyika: V. Palynological evidence for deforestation and increased erosion

Pollen spectra from seven short cores taken from deltaic sites in the central and northern parts of Lake Tanganyika provide information about vegetation changes around the lake during the last 5000 years. Pollen analysis was undertaken to understand the history and timing of catchment deforestation and its causal linkage to excess sedimentation and ecosystem change in Lake Tanganyika. The spectra are dominated by grass pollen at all levels in every core. Grass pollen percentage values range between 40 and 80%. Low values of arboreal pollen taxa (1–20%) were documented from most cores except core LT-98-2M. Core LT-98-2M represents the longest duration vegetation record of this study (close to 5000 years BP), and records the onset of increasingly arid conditions in the Late Holocene, especially after 500 A.D., with the probable replacement of forest by open grassland in the Mahale Mountains region. The pollen/spore content for other cores showed a consistent trend of a decrease in grass pollen and an increase in pteridophyte and forest indicator pollen taxa during the last few centuries, contemporaneous with other indications of increased watershed disturbance from forest clearing (especially isotopes and lake faunal change). The timing or strength of this trend is not tied to specific levels of watershed disturbance. However, increasing fern spore abundance does occur progressively later towards the south, where modern human population densities are lower. Although increasing fern spore abundance is consistent with a land-clearing hypothesis, the rising arboreal pollen percentages are seemingly counterintuitive. One possible explanation is that increasing arboreal pollen proportions reflects the recycling of abundant pollen of this type from rapidly eroding soils. Another likely explanation for this finding is that land clearing involved the replacement of miombo woodland, with its mixture of trees producing little pollen and understory grasses producing large amounts of pollen, by the present day cassava, banana, and legume agricultural systems, all of which are poor pollen producers. This shift in catchment vegetation would increase the relative contribution of Afromontane pollen transported long distances from the surrounding highland regions. This hypothesis is consistent with both the lack of correlation of palynological history with specific watershed deforestation attributes, as well as the broader historical record of human habitation in the Lake Tanganyika region. This study also highlights the need for both modern pollen transect data from the region and comparative cores from low elevation swamps or ponds (wetlands) in the region with smaller catchment areas.     

Late Holocene changes in ultraviolet radiation penetration recorded in an East Antarctic lake

Late Holocene changes in the ultraviolet radiation (UVR) penetration in a lake in the Larsemann Hills (East Antarctica) were reconstructed using sediment core proxies based on fossil pigments (scytonemins and its derivatives) and siliceous microfossils. The influence of changes in lake depth on the UVR proxy was excluded by applying a correction, based on the non-linear relation between modern scytonemin concentrations and lake depth in a regional reference data set, and the record of past lake depths inferred using a diatom based transfer function in the sediment core. Results showed four well-defined maxima in the UVR proxy during the last 1600–1800 years, centred around 1820–1780, 1580–1490, 790–580 and 680–440 AD. Several mechanisms may account for these observed changes in UVR penetration, including past variability in cloud cover, atmospheric turbidity, ozone column depth, snow cover on the lake ice, DOM concentrations and lake-ice thickness and transparency resulting from temperature fluctuations. Although some gaps remain in our knowledge of scytonemin production in relation to the limnology of Antarctic lakes, the results highlight the importance and potential of the sediments in these highly transparent water bodies as archives of changes in past UVR receipt at the Earth’s surface.     

Limnic Responses to Increased Effective Humidity during the 8200 cal. yr BP Cooling Event in Southern Sweden

Highly resolved sediment stratigraphic and stable isotope records from a lake in south-central Sweden give evidence of relatively humid summers during the wide-spread cold event at c. 8200 cal. BP. A transient lake-level rise led to increased catchment erosion followed by enhanced phytoplankton production and disturbance of the Chara-dominated algal community. An associated increase in the deposition of organic material resulted in hypolimnetic oxygen deficit and methane formation as inferred from elevated sulphur content of the sediments and strong depletion in ¹³C of bulk organic material. In combination with dry and cold winter conditions as revealed by other proxy records, these data suggest the development of a strongly seasonal climate in northwestern Europe in response to altered atmospheric circulation at this stage. Enhanced zonal circulation with frequent cyclonic activity and increased effective humidity probably characterized the summer climate of southern and central Scandinavia, consistent with conditions inferred for continental Europe. In contrast, the winter climate was dominated by blocking high-pressure circulation, giving rise to cold and dry conditions.     

星系团内物理过程对宇宙微波背景辐射的影响

观测表明,富星系团内存在着大量的高温热电子.它们将与微波背景光子相互作用.本文考虑了星系团集合使微波背景辐射产生的畸变.我们的理论估计表明,富星系团集合的高温热电子散射背景光子,使背景辐射谱偏离黑体辐射谱.在背景谱的维恩区,畸变小于2.74K黑体峰值强度的1％,这个结果与最近COBE卫星的探测结果是一致的.没有得到Matsumoto所探测到的在700μm附近有相当于黑体谱峰值强度10％的重大畸变.星系作为微引力透镜,对背景辐射的影响不可能探测得到.星系团内热电子的轫致辐射在微波波段更弱.     

Bridging Political Expectations and Scientific Limitations in Climate Risk Management – On the Uncertain Effects of International Carbon Sink Policies<Superscript>*</Superscript>

Despite great advances in carbon cycle research during the past decade the climatic impact of terrestrial ecosystems is still highly uncertain. Although contemporary studies suggest that the terrestrial biosphere has acted as a net sink to atmospheric carbon during the past two decades, the future role of terrestrial carbon pools is most difficult to foresee. When land use change and forestry activities were included into the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, the requirements for scientific precision increased significantly. At the same time the political expectations of carbon sequestration as climate mitigation strategy added uncertainties of a social kind to the study of land-atmosphere carbon exchange that have been difficult to address by conventional scientific methods. In this paper I explore how the failure to take into account the effects of direct human activity in scientific projections of future terrestrial carbon storage has resulted in a simplified appreciation of the risks embedded in a global carbon sequestration scheme. I argue that the social limits to scientific analysis must be addressed in order to accommodate these risks in future climate governance and to enable continued scientific authority in the international climate regime.     

Ice-Core Study of the Link between Sea-Salt Aerosol,Sea-Ice Cover and Climate in the Antarctic Peninsula Area

Three ice cores and a set of snow pit samples collected on James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula, in 1979, 1981 and 1991 have been analyzed for water stable isotope content D or ¹⁸O (isotopic temperature) and major chemical species. A reliable and detailed chronological scale has been established first for the upper 24.5 m of water equivalent (1990–1943) where various data sets can be compared, then extended down to 59.5 m of water equivalent (1847) with the aid of seasonal variations and the sulphate peak reflecting the 1883 Krakatoa volcanic eruption. At James Ross Island, sea-salt aerosol is generally produced by ice-free marine surfaces during the summer months, although some winter sea-salt events have been observed. For the upper part of the core (1990–1943), correlations (positive or negative) were calculated between isotopic temperature, chloride content (a sea-salt indicator), sea-ice extent, regional atmospheric temperature changes and atmospheric circulation. The D and chloride content correlation was then extended back to 1847, making it possible to estimate decadal sea-ice cover fluctuations over the study period. Our findings suggest that ice-core records from James Ross Island reflect the recent warming and sea-ice decrease trends observed in the Antarctic Peninsula area from the mid-1940s.     

Verification of Carbon Sink Assessment: Can We Exclude Natural Sinks?

Any human-induced terrestrial sink is susceptible to the effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration, nitrogen deposition, climate variability and other natural or indirect human-induced factors. It has been suggested in climate negotiations that the effects of these factors should be excluded from estimates of carbon sequestration used to meet the emission reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. This paper focuses on the methodologies for factoring out the effects of atmospheric and climate variability/change. We estimate the relative magnitude of the non-human induced effects by using two biosphere models and discuss possibilities for narrowing estimate uncertainty.