Forecasting rock slope failure: how reliable and effective are warning systems?

Warning systems are increasingly applied to reduce damage caused by different magnitudes of rockslides and rockfalls. In an integrated risk-management approach, the optimal risk mitigation strategy is identified by comparing the achieved effectiveness and cost; estimating the reliability of the warning system is the basis for such considerations. Here, we calculate the reliability and effectiveness of the warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012. “Reliability” is defined as the ability of the warning system to forecast the hazard event and to prevent damage. To be cost-effective, the warning system should forecast an event with a limited number of false alarms to avoid unnecessary costs for intervention measures. The analysis shows that to be reliable, warning systems should be designed as fail-safe constructions. They should incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, have low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. In addition, the experts operating the warning system should have limited risk tolerance. In an additional hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of the decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting the event and initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on the related intervention cost. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessments can support the identification of optimal warning system designs and decision criteria.     

Petrogenesis of low-δ<Superscript>18</Superscript>O quartz porphyry dykes,Koegel Fontein complex,South Africa

This paper investigates the origin of low-δ¹⁸O quartz porphyry dykes associated with the 144–133 Ma Koegel Fontein Igneous Complex, which was intruded during the initial phase of breakup of Africa and South America. The 25-km diameter Rietpoort Granite is the largest and youngest phase of activity, and is roofed by a 10-km diameter pendant of gneiss. Quartz porphyry (QP) dykes, up to 15 m in width, strike NW–SE across the complex. The QP dykes that intruded outside the granite have similar quartz phenocryst δ¹⁸O values (average 8.0‰, ± 0.7, n?=?33) to the granite (average 8.3?±?1.0, n?=?7). The QP dykes that intruded the roof pendant have quartz phenocrysts with more variable δ¹⁸O values (average 1.6‰, ± 2.1, n?=?55). In some cases quartz phenocrysts have δ¹⁸O values as low as ? 2.5‰. The variation in δ¹⁸O value within the quartz crystal population of individual dykes is small relative to the overall range, and core and rim material from individual quartz phenocrysts in three samples are identical within error. There is no evidence that quartz phenocryst δ¹⁸O values have been affected by fluid–rock interaction. Based on a ?_quartz?magma value of 0.6‰, magma δ¹⁸O values must have been as low as ? 3.1‰. Samples collected along the length of the two main QP dykes that traverse the roof pendant have quartz phenocryst δ¹⁸O values that range from +?1.1 to +?4.6‰, and ? 2.3 to +?5.6‰, respectively. These δ¹⁸O values correlate negatively (r = ? 0.96) with initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, which can be explained by the event that lowered δ¹⁸O values of the source being older than the dykes. We suggest that the QP dykes were fed by magma produced by partial melting of gneiss, which had been variably altered at high temperature by ¹⁸O-depleted meteoric water during global glaciation at ~?550 Ma. The early melts had variable δ¹⁸O value but as melt pockets interconnected during melting, the δ¹⁸O values approached that of average gneiss. Variable quartz phenocryst δ¹⁸O values in the same dyke can be explained by vertical emplacement, at variable rates of ascent along the dyke. The lateral variation in quartz, and hence magma δ¹⁸O value at a particular point along a single dyke would depend on the rate of ascent of magma at that point along the dyke, and the ‘age’ of the particular magma batch.     

Composition of barian mica in multiphase solid inclusions from orogenic garnet peridotites as evidence of mantle metasomatism in a subduction zone setting

Multiphase solid inclusions in minerals formed at ultra-high-pressure (UHP) provide evidence for the presence of fluids during deep subduction. This study focuses on barian mica, which is a common phase in multiphase solid inclusions enclosed in garnet from mantle-derived UHP garnet peridotites in the Saxothuringian basement of the northern Bohemian Massif. The documented compositional variability and substitution trends provide constraints on crystallization medium of the barian mica and allow making inferences on its source. Barian mica in the multiphase solid inclusions belongs to trioctahedral micas and represents a solid solution of phlogopite KMg₃(Si₃Al)O₁₀(OH)₂, kinoshitalite BaMg₃(Al₂Si₂)O₁₀(OH)₂ and ferrokinoshitalite BaFe₃(Al₂Si₂)O₁₀(OH)₂. In addition to Ba (0.24–0.67 apfu), mica is significantly enriched in Mg (X_Mg ~ 0.85 to 0.95), Cr (0.03–0.43 apfu) and Cl (0.04–0.34 apfu). The substitution vector involving Ba in the I-site which describes the observed chemical variability can be expressed as BaFe^IVAlClK_?1Mg_?1Si_?1(OH)_?1. A minor amount of Cr and ^VIAl enters octahedral sites following a substitution vector ^VI(Cr,Al)₂□^VI(Mg,Fe)_?3 towards chromphyllite and muscovite. As demonstrated by variable Ba and Cl contents positively correlating with Fe, barian mica composition is partly controlled by its crystal structure. Textural evidence shows that barian mica, together with other minerals in multiphase solid inclusions, crystallized from fluids trapped during garnet growth. The unusual chemical composition of mica reflects the mixing of two distinct sources: (1) an internal source, i.e. the host peridotite and its garnet, providing Mg, Fe, Al, Cr, and (2) an external source, represented by crustal-derived subduction-zone fluids supplying Ba, K and Cl. At UHP–UHT conditions recorded by the associated diamond-bearing metasediments (c. 1100 °C and 4.5 GPa) located above the second critical point in the pelitic system, the produced subduction-zone fluids transporting the elements into the overlying mantle wedge had a solute-rich composition with properties of a hydrous melt. The occurrence of barian mica with a specific chemistry in barium-poor mantle rocks demonstrates the importance of its thorough chemical characterization.     

Apatite-hosted melt inclusions from the Panzhihua gabbroic-layered intrusion associated with a giant Fe–Ti oxide deposit in SW China: insights for magma unmixing within a crystal mush

The ～?2-km-thick Panzhihua gabbroic-layered intrusion in SW China is unusual because it hosts a giant Fe–Ti oxide deposit in its lower zone. The deposit consists of laterally extensive net-textured and massive Fe–Ti oxide ore layers, the thickest of which is ～?60 m. To examine the magmatic processes that resulted in the Fe enrichment of parental high-Ti basaltic magma and the formation of thick, Fe–Ti oxide ore layers, we carried out a detailed study of melt inclusions in apatite from a ～?500-m-thick profile of apatite-bearing leucogabbro in the middle zone of the intrusion. The apatite-hosted melt inclusions are light to dark brown in color and appear as polygonal, rounded, oval and negative crystal shapes, which range from ～?5 to ～?50 µm in width and from ～?5 to ～?100 µm in length. They have highly variable compositions and show a large and continuous range of SiO₂ and FeO_t with contrasting end-members; one end-member being Fe-rich and Si-poor (40.2 wt% FeO_t and 17.7 wt% SiO₂) and the other being Si-rich and Fe-poor (74.0 wt% SiO₂ and 1.20 wt% FeO_t). This range in composition may be attributed to entrapment of the melt inclusions over a range of temperature and may reflect the presence of µm-scale and immiscible Fe-rich and Si-rich components in different proportions. Simulating results for the motion of Si-rich droplets within a crystal mush indicate that Si-rich droplets would be separated from Fe-rich melt and migrate upward due to density differences in the interstitial liquid when the magma unmixed. Migration of the Si-rich, immiscible liquid component from the interstitial liquid caused the remaining Fe-rich melt in the lower part to react with plagioclase primocrysts (An_59–60), as evidenced by fine-grained lamellar intergrowth of An-rich plagioclase (An_79–84)?+?clinopyroxene in the oxide gabbro of the lower zone. Therefore, magma unmixing within a crystal mush, combined with gravitationally driven loss of the Si-rich component, resulted in the formation of Fe-rich, melagabbro and major Fe–Ti oxide ores in the lower part and Si-rich, leucogabbro in the upper part of the intrusion.     

Carbon costs and benefits of France’s biomass energy production targets

Background

Concern about climate change has motivated France to reduce its reliance on fossil fuel by setting targets for increased biomass-based renewable energy production. This study quantifies the carbon costs and benefits for the French forestry sector in meeting these targets. A forest growth and harvest simulator was developed for French forests using recent forest inventory data, and the wood-use chain was reconstructed from national wood product statistics. We then projected wood production, bioenergy production, and carbon balance for three realistic intensification scenarios and a business-as-usual scenario. These intensification scenarios targeted either overstocked, harvest-delayed or currently actively managed stands.

Results

All three intensification strategies produced 11.6–12.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent per year of wood-based energy by 2026, which corresponds to the target assigned to French wood-energy to meet the EU 2020 renewable energy target. Sustaining this level past 2026 will be challenging, let alone further increasing it. Although energy production targets can be reached, the management intensification required will degrade the near-term carbon balance of the forestry sector, compared to continuing present-day management. Even for the best-performing intensification strategy, i.e., reducing the harvest diameter of actively managed stands, the carbon benefits would only become apparent after 2040. The carbon balance of a strategy putting abandoned forests back into production would only break even by 2055; the carbon balance from increasing thinning in managed but untended stands would not break even within the studied time periods, i.e. 2015–2045 and 2046–2100. Owing to the temporal dynamics in the components of the carbon balance, i.e., the biomass stock in the forest, the carbon stock in wood products, and substitution benefits, the merit order of the examined strategies varies over time.

Conclusions

No single solution was found to improve the carbon balance of the forestry sector by 2040 in a way that also met energy targets. We therefore searched for the intensification scenario that produces energy at the lowest carbon cost. Reducing rotation time of actively managed stands is slightly more efficient than targeting harvest-delayed stands, but in both cases, each unit of energy produced has a carbon cost that only turns into a benefit between 2060 and 2080.

     

新疆乌什6.2级地震的中期预测

介绍了利用地倾斜资料和中国地壳运动网络工程GPS复测资料对新疆地区震情进行跟踪研究的基本依据、方法和过程,对2005年2月15日发生的乌什Ms6.2地震给出了较好的年度预测意见。     

Kinematic source model for simulation of near-fault ground motion field using explicit finite element method

1 Introduction The prediction of broadband near-fault ground motion is an important aspect of seismic risk analysis, and is essential for the evaluation of urban seismic safety. Many methodologies are used to model the near-fault ground motions, such as the Green function method, ?nite element (FE) / ?nite difference (FD) method and a hybrid method (Aagaard, 1999; Oprsal and Zahradnik, 2002; Oprsal et al., 2003 a and b). In the hybrid method, the FE / FD method is used to model the low fr…