W3(OH)致密HⅡ区磁场研究

本文以W3(OH)为实例,建立了与OH脉泽成协的HII区气体-尘埃壳层的磁场模型,由此可见,致密HII区所在分子云核心中的磁场强度,与分子云核心的分子数密度之间存在指数α=1/2的幂律关系;而在HII区气体-尘埃壳层中,磁场强度与分子数密度之间存在α=1的正比关系,根据讨论可知,与OH脉泽成协的HII区,其气体-尘埃壳层的分子数密度为10~6cm~(-3)量级,磁场强度为几个mG;一旦分子数密度达10~7cm~(-3)量级,OH脉泽便将熄灭。     

基于光学立体和InSAR的Grove山地区DEM建立和分析

本文分别利用光学立体和In SAR技术生成了东南极Grove山地区15 m分辨率的ASTER DEM和20 m分辨率的In SAR DEM。在利用ASTER立体像对生成DEM的过程中引入ICESat测高数据作为高程控制以减少错误匹配,提高DEM垂直精度;而在利用ERS tandem数据生成DEM后,选取ICESat测高数据对In SAR DEM进行倾斜面纠正,以消除基线不精确估计等带来的影响。通过与未作控制的ICESat测高数据进行比较,评价了两种DEM的精度并对误差进行了分析。同时,比较了两种DEM的差异,并分析了造成这些差异的原因,探讨了两种技术生成南极冰盖DEM的优势和不足。最后结合两DEM的优势,融合生成了Grove山地区高精度的DEM。     

Application and discussion of statistical seismology in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies

Earthquakes are one of the natural disasters that pose a major threat to human lives and property. Earthquake prediction propels the construction and development of modern seismology;however, current deterministic earthquake prediction is limited by numerous difficulties. Identifying the temporal and spatial statistical characteristics of earthquake occurrences and constructing earthquake risk statistical prediction models have become significant;particularly for evaluating earthquake risks and addressing seismic planning requirements such as the design of cities and lifeline projects based on the obtained insight. Since the 21 st century, the occurrence of a series of strong earthquakes represented by the Wenchuan M8 earthquake in 2008 in certain low-risk prediction areas has caused seismologists to reflect on traditional seismic hazard assessment globally. This article briefly reviews the development of statistical seismology, emphatically analyzes the research results and existing problems of statistical seismology in seismic hazard assessment, and discusses the direction of its development. The analysis shows that the seismic hazard assessment based on modern earthquake catalogues in most regions should be effective. Particularly, the application of seismic hazard assessment based on ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence)should be the easiest and most effective method for the compilation of seismic hazard maps in large urban agglomeration areas and low seismic hazard areas with thick sedimentary zones.     

Holocene palaeoflood events recorded by slackwater deposits along the lower Jinghe River valley,middle Yellow River basin,China

Palaeoflood slackwater deposits (SWDs), are the natural record of overbank flooding and are often found within aeolian loess‐soil profiles along the river valleys of the middle Yellow River basin. These pedo‐stratigraphic sequences are studied using a multi‐disciplinarily approach to reconstruct Holocene hydro‐climatic variations. Our field investigations along the lower Jinghe River valley have identified palaeoflood SWDs at several sites along the riverbanks based on sedimentological criteria. Analytical results, including magnetic susceptibility, particle‐size distribution and concentrations of chemical elements, indicate that these well‐sorted palaeoflood SWD beds were deposited from the suspended sediment load in floodwaters. We identify two episodes of extraordinary palaeoflood events along the Jinghe River valley. These hydro‐climatic events were dated to 4200–4000 and 3200–2800 a BP, by using the optically stimulated luminescence method in combination with archaeological dating of retrieved anthropogenic remains, and with pedo‐stratigraphic correlations with the previously studied Holocene pedo‐stratigraphy in the Jinghe River drainage basin. The flooding events are therefore considered to be a regional expression of known climatic events in the northern hemisphere and demonstrate Holocene climate was far from stable. This study provides important data in understanding the interactions between regional hydro‐climatic systems and global change in semi‐arid and sub‐humid regions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of frequency and confining pressure on consolidation drainage behavior of soft marine clays

Abstract

This article presents an experimental investigation on the dynamic consolidation (DC) drainage behavior of soft marine clays. A sinusoidal harmonic load with different frequencies was applied to simulate the DC method in which the conventional impact load was replaced by the cyclic load. Four geotextile-filter strips were used to form the side drainage channels simulating the wick drain method. A series of loading tests were conducted on soft soil specimens at different confining pressures (i.e., 20, 40, 70, and 100?kPa) and different vibration frequencies (i.e., 0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, and 5?Hz). Test results showed that both confining pressure and frequency have significant influences on the drainage behavior of soft marine clay specimens. The magnitude of drainage volume consistently decreases linearly with increasing confining pressure. Compared to static loading condition, specimens under cyclic loading condition at different frequencies show a better drainage performance. Specimen at applied frequency of 1?Hz exhibits the maximum cumulative drainage volume due to the resonant effect.     

海底声学底质分类的ELM-AdaBoost方法

基于自适应增强算法（AdaBoost）结合极限学习机（ELM）,通过迭代、调整、优化ELM分类器之间的权值,从而构建了具有强鲁棒性、高精度的ELM-AdaBoost强分类器,增强了现有的ELM分类器的稳定性。以珠江口海区侧扫声呐图像为实验数据,对礁石、砂、泥3类典型底质进行分类识别,该方法的平均分类精度超过90%,优于单一ELM分类器的平均分类精度85.95%,也优于LVQ、BP等传统分类器,且在分类所耗时间上也远少于传统分类器。实验结果表明,本文构建的ELM-AdaBoost方法可有效应用于海底声学底质分类,可满足实时底质分类的需求。     

北半球冬季环流异常的垂直结构特征

本文对北半球100,500,700和1000hPa四层高度距平资料,应用相关分析,EOF分解和谐波分析方法,分析了北半球冬季环流异常过程中的垂直结构特征。结果表明:第一特征向量在对流层中具有明显的相当正压性结构,并且在环流异常中占有最大权重,它和半球性的天气异常有明显关系。谐波分析表明大气环流异常的正压性主要和超长波的活动有关。     

Study on projection of water resources of Dongting Lake catchment based on emission scenarios assumptions

ABSTRACT

With global climate change and impacts of human activity, the water cycle, which has a close relationship with local water resources, has changed rapidly. Based on different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, five relatively independent global climate models are selected from 47 CMIP5 models to simulate future climatic conditions. Data are downscaled to the local projection, with bias neutralized before applying them to the hydrological models, by which availability of future water resources are calculated for the Dongting Lake basin. The results show that the water resources of the Dongting Lake basin are likely to increase in the future, but be distributed more unevenly. All scenarios indicate that water availability will increase during the flood season and decrease during the dry season, with a prominent increase in annual discharge. The scenarios also predict that the greater the greenhouse gas emissions, the more uneven the water distribution becomes. Overall, the water resources of the Dongting Lake catchment show the same increasing and unevenly distributed trend in the future, which could be further accelerated by human activities.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Q. Zhang     

NagiosQL软件在开源网络管理系统中的应用

NagiosQL开源软件,实现了对Nagios系统的监控对象、监控命令、分组信息等配置要素的图形化管理工作,方便了Nagios系统的进一步深入应用.本文阐述NagiosQL软件在天津市地震局开源网络管理系统中的应用,包括与Nagios系统的集成、联调和使用情况,是开源软件在地震行业中新的应用参考.     

青藏高原水文模拟的现状及未来

介绍了青藏高原水文模拟的研究现状和发展趋势。水文模拟是研究水文过程的主要手段,可为流域水资源管理及防灾减灾提供理论和决策支持。国际上第一代水文模型为"集总式",第二代水文模型为"分布式",但它们大都以描述降水—产流的水分输移为主("水圈"),未仔细考虑陆—气水热交换中植被的调节作用("生物圈—大气圈")。近10年来,在气候变化的背景下,随着大气科学以及生态学的蓬勃发展,分布式水文模型开始描述生物圈—大气圈相互作用;通过改进陆—气间的水热交换过程以及植被的生理过程,实现了对流域水圈—生物圈—大气圈的综合模拟。然而,针对显著受冰冻圈过程影响的青藏高原,需要深入研究冰冻圈与其他圈层(水圈/生物圈/大气圈)的相互作用机理,并实现其在水文模拟中的参数化,以提升区域水资源和水灾害的预测能力。