呼伦贝尔草原大气浑浊度的测量和尘埃输送的初步探讨

利用相对日射表和玻璃滤光片,于1974—76年的4—7月份在呼伦贝尔草原进行了大气浑浊度的测量。根据测量结果,研究了半干旱草原尘埃输送的特性。通过不同测点的对比,分析了草原开垦对尘埃输送的影响。     

A comparative study of extensive machine learning models for predicting long-term monthly rainfall with an ensemble of climatic and meteorological predictors

Rainfall prediction is of vital importance in water resources management. Accurate long-term rainfall prediction remains an open and challenging problem. Machine learning techniques, as an increasingly popular approach, provide an attractive alternative to traditional methods. The main objective of this study was to improve the prediction accuracy of machine learning-based methods for monthly rainfall, and to improve the understanding of the role of large-scale climatic variables and local meteorological variables in rainfall prediction. One regression model autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and five state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural networks, support vector machine, random forest (RF), gradient boosting regression, and dual-stage attention-based recurrent neural network, were implemented for monthly rainfall prediction over 25 stations in the East China region. The results showed that the ML models outperformed ARIMA model, and RF relatively outperformed other models. Local meteorological variables, humidity, and sunshine duration, were the most important predictors in improving prediction accuracy. 4-month lagged Western North Pacific Monsoon had higher importance than other large-scale climatic variables. The overall output of rainfall prediction was scalable and could be readily generalized to other regions.     

Spatial pattern of rural settlements in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River

A quantitative analysis of the spatial pattern of rural settlements in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River was made with the major data sources being the relevant ETM image and the national geographical database of China (including contour line, river and road) at the scale of 1:250 000, and using image interpretation and field investigation to obtain spatial information on rural settlements. The results of the spatial analysis technique of GIS and correlation analysis showed that most settlements (78.2 %) were located in the mountain area at 1500 ∼ 2700 m altitude, and almost half in the arid valley area. More than 80.0 % of settlements had their slopes above 15°. Most settlements had good access to water resources, roads and communications, and tended to cluster close to the road network rather than the river. About half of the rural settlements in the study area were relatively concentrated, while the others were decentralized. Those with higher altitude usually had land with steep slope, inconvenient water and road accesses, and were located far apart from each other. In view of such a situation, further research should be done to make reasonable countermeasures on these settlements for better living conditions and ecosystem stability.     

Meander hydrodynamics initiated by river restoration deflectors

River restoration projects have installed j‐hook deflectors along the outer bank of meander bends to reduce hydraulic erosion, and in this study we use a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model to document how these deflectors initiate changes in meander hydrodynamics. We validated the CFD with streamwise and cross‐channel bankfull velocities from a 193° meander bend flume (inlet at 0°) with a fixed point bar and pool equilibrium bed but no j‐hooks, and then used the CFD to simulate changes to flow initiated by bank‐attached boulder j‐hooks (1^st attached at 70°, then a 2^nd at 160°). At bankfull and half bankfull flow the j‐hooks flattened transverse water surface slopes, formed backwater pools upstream of the boulders, and steepened longitudinal water slopes across the boulders and in the conveyance region off the mid‐channel boulder tip. Streamwise velocity and mass transport jets upstream of the j‐hooks were stilled, mid‐channel jets were initiated in the conveyance region, eddies with a cross‐channel axis formed below boulders, and eddies with a vertical axis were shed into wake zones downstream of the point bar and outer bank boulders. At half bankfull depth conveyance region flow cut toward the outer bank downstream of the j‐hook boulders and the secondary circulation cells were reshaped. At bankfull depth the j‐hook at 160° was needed to redirect bank‐impinging flow sent by the upstream j‐hook. The hooked boulder tip of both j‐hooks funneled surface flow into mid‐channel plunging jets, which reversed the secondary circulation cells and initiated 1 to 3 counter rotating cells through the entire meander. The main outer bank collision zone centered at 50° without the j‐hook was moved by the j‐hook to within and just beyond the 70° j‐hook boulder region, which displaced other mass transport zones downstream. J‐hooks re‐organized water surface slopes, streamwise and cross‐channel velocities, and mass transport patterns, to move shear stress from the outer bank and into the conveyance and mid‐channel zones at bankfull flow. At half bankfull flows a patch of high shear re‐attached to the outer bank below the downstream j‐hook. J‐hook geometry and placement within natural meanders can be analyzed with CFD models to help restoration teams reach design goals and understand hydraulic impacts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of potential evapotranspiration over the Yellow River basin: reference crop evaporation or Shuttleworth–Wallace?

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a key input to hydrological models. Its estimation has often been via the Penman–Monteith (P–M) equation, most recently in the form of an estimate of reference evapotranspiration (RET) as recommended by FAO‐56. In this paper the Shuttleworth–Wallace (S–W) model is implemented to estimate PET directly in a form that recognizes vegetation diversity and temporal change without reference to experimental measurements and without calibration. The threshold values of vegetation parameters are drawn from the literature based on the International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme land cover classification. The spatial and temporal variation of the LAI of vegetation is derived from the composite NOAA‐AVHRR normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) using a method based on the SiB2 model, and the Climate Research Unit database is used to provide the required meteorological data. All these data inputs are publicly and globally available. Consequently, the implementation of the S–W model developed in this study is applicable at the global scale, an essential requirement if it is to be applied in data‐poor or ungauged large basins. A comparison is made between the FAO‐56 method and the S–W model when applied to the Yellow River basin for the whole of the last century. The resulting estimates of RET and PET and their association with vegetation types and leaf area index (LAI) are examined over the whole basin both annual and monthly and at six specific points. The effect of NDVI on the PET estimate is further evaluated by replacing the monthly NDVI product with the 10‐day product. Multiple regression relationships between monthly PET, RET, LAI, and climatic variables are explored for categories of vegetation types. The estimated RET is a good climatic index that adequately reflects the temporal change and spatial distribution of climate over the basin, but the PET estimated using the S–W model not only reflects the changes in climate, but also the vegetation distribution and the development of vegetation in response to climate. Although good statistical relationships can be established between PET, RET and/or climatic variables, applying these relationships likely will result in large errors because of the strong non‐linearity and scatter between the PET and the LAI of vegetation. It is concluded that use of the implementation of the S–W model described in this study results in a physically sound estimate of PET that accounts for changing land surface conditions. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Shift-share Analysis on International Tourism Competitiveness - A Case of Jiangsu Province

Shift-share analysis has been confirmed a useful approach in the study of regional economics and many kinds of extended shift-share models have been advanced and put into practice in economic studies, but few have hitherto been introduced and applied to the tourism research in China. Moreover understanding the spatially competitive relationship is of paramount importance for marketers, developers, and planners involved in tourism strategy development. Based on international tourism receipts from 1995 to 2004, this study aims at probing into the spatial competitiveness of interna- tional tourism in Jiangsu Province in comparison with its neighbors by applying a spatially extended shift-share model and a modified dynamic shift-share model. The empirical results illustrate that exceptional years may exist in the ap- plication of dynamic shift-share models. To solve this issue, modifications to dynamic shift-share model are put forward. The analytical results are not only presented but also explained by the comparison of background conditions of tourism development between Jiangsu and its key competitors. The conclusions can be drawn that the growth of international tourism receipts in Jiangsu mainly attributes to the national component and the competitive component and Zhejiang is the most important rival to Jiangsu during the period of 1995-2004. In order to upgrade the tourism competitiveness, it is indispensable for Jiangsu to take proper positioning, promoting and marketing strategies and to cooperate and integrate with its main rivals.     

光栅栅距检测与线阵CCD细分技术研究

利用线阵CCD分辨率高、像素均匀等特点对光栅莫尔条纹进行细分是目前广泛采用的一种新技术。由于CCD具有自扫描能力，能将光强随空间分布的莫尔条纹信号转换成随时间变化的电信号，从而可以对光栅刻线的像的移动进行精确定位和直接数字化，改变传统莫尔条纹位相细分方法，实现对光栅栅距进行高倍数的细分。     

CO Clouds around SNR G21.8-0.6 and G32.8-0.1

We made the first CO(I—0) mapping to SNR G21.8-0.6 and SNR G32.8-0.1, both associated with OH 1720 MHz maser.Based on the morphological correspondence and velocity and position agreement between the radio remnant and the CO clouds,we tentatively identify the clouds that are respectively interacting with the two SNRs.     

伊朗地震台网现状分析

通过中伊双方合作交流，详细考察了伊朗的地震台网。伊朗现建有4类台网:地震遥测台网、国家地震台网、强震台网及水库诱发地震台网。这些台网中高性能宽频带地震仪数量不足，使得地震定位精度不高;且4类台网分属不同机构，在一定程度上限制了伊朗的地震监测能力。