经验格林函数法与随机有限断层法在合成近场强地震动中的联合运用

本文采取将经验格林函数法与随机有限断层法相结合的方式,突出体现了各自方法的优点,通过经验格林函数法确定地震震源参数,用随机有限断层法计算参数、检验其合理性。利用1998年新疆阿图什M6．9级地震的肘L4．7级余震记录,合成了这次地震的最大余震Ms6．0级地震的加速度记录,并将合成的结果与实际记录在频域和时域做了对比,分析研究了地震动特征和这次最大余震的可能破裂特征。同时对经验格林函数法需进一步改进的方向进行了探讨。     

几种海洋蓝藻生长条件的研究

对Ｓｙｎｅｃｈｏｃｏｃｃｕｓ ｂａｃｉｌｌａｒｉｓ，Ｏｓｃｉｌｌａｔｏｒｉａ ｌｕｄ，Ｓｃｈｉｚｏｔｈｒｉｘ ｃａｌｃｉｃｏｌａ，Ｓｐｉｒｕｌｉｎａ ｐｌａｔｅｎｓｉｓ等４各海洋蓝藻的生长条件的研究表明，除Ｓ．ｐｌａｔｅｎｓｉｓ外，其他３种蓝藻在“ｆ／２”培养基中生长良好，外源生长因子对生长有不同程度的促进作用。Ｓ．ｂａｃｉｌｌａｒｉｓ适应较高光强，其温度和ｐＨ最适范围较窄，Ｓ．ｃａｌｃｉｃｏｌａ     

东亚夏季风的年际变化及其对环流和降水的影响

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis geopotential height (GHT) and wind at 850 hPa, GHT at 500 hPa, precipitation rate, sea level pressure (SLP) and precipitation observations from more than 600 stations nationwide in June–August from 1951 to 2006, and focusing on the East Asia-West Pacific region (10°–80°N, 70°–180°E), interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and its correlations with general circulation and precipitation patterns are studied by using statistical diagnostic methods such as 9-point high pass filtering, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, composite analysis and other statistical diagnosis, etc. It is concluded as follows: (1) EOF analysis of SLP in the East Asia-West Pacific region shows the existence of the zonal dipole oscillation mode (APD) between the Mongolia depression and the West Pacific high, and APD index can be used as an intensity index of EASM. (2) EOF analysis of GHT anomalies at 500 hPa in the East Asia-West Pacific region shows that the first EOF mode is characterized with an obvious meridional East Asian pattern (EAP), and EAP index can also be used as an EASM intensity index. (3) The composite analysis of high/low APD index years reveals the close correlation of APD index with EAP at 500 hPa (or 850 hPa). The study shows an obvious opposite correlation exists between APD index and EAP index with a correlation coefficient of −0.23, which passes the confidence test at 0.10 level. (4) Both APD and EAP indexes are closely correlated with precipitation during flood-prone season in China and precipitation rate over the East Asia-West Pacific region. The significant correlation area at 5% confidence level is mainly located from the southern area of the Yangtze River valley to the ocean around southern Japan, and the former is a positive correlation and the latter is a negative one. Foundation: Cooperative Project funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China, No.2007DFB20210; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.90502003; JICA China-Japan Technical Cooperative Project “China-Japanese Cooperative Research Center on Meteorological Disasters”. Author: Yu Shuqiu, Associate Professor, specialized in climate and climate change.     

南极政治及浅析

随着各国对南极考察和研究的日益深入,南极政治作为国际政治的一个新兴领域已经形成。本文拟通过对南极地区的领土争端问题、环境保护问题、矿产资源问题和科学考察问题的研究来阐述南极政治的主要内涵,并对南极政治法律框架在解决这些问题中的作用进行初步的分析,探讨南极条约体系与国际社会的互动对南极政治的影响。     

Spatio-temporal point pattern analysis on Wenchuan strong earthquake

For exploring the aftershock occurrence process of the 2008 Wenchuan strong earthquake, the spatio-temporal point pattern analysis method is employed to study the sequences of aftershocks with magnitude M≥4.0, M≥4.5, and M≥5.0. It is found that these data exhibit the spatio-temporal clustering on a certain distance scale and on a certain time scale. In particular, the space-time interaction obviously strengthens when the distance is less than 60 km and the time is less than 260 h for the first two aftershoc...     

东半球空间环境地基综合监测子午链简介

“东半球空间环境地基综合监测子午链”（简称子午工程）是我国空间科学领域开工建设的第一个国家重大基础设施项目。子午工程利用沿东半球120°E子午线附近和北纬30°N附近的15个综合性观测台站,运用无线电、地磁、光学和探空火箭等多种探测手段,连续监测地球表面20—30km以上到几百公里的中高层大气、电离层和磁层,以及十几个地球半径以外的行星际的空间环境参数。它将为我国各类用户提供完整、连续、可靠的多学科、多层次的空间环境地基综合监测数据。子午工程总投资1．67亿元,建设期3年,子午工程整体科学寿命预计超过11年。     

龙滩库区蓄水初期水库诱发地震活动分析

龙滩水利枢纽位于广西天峨,是一座典型高坝大库容水库。本文通过对库区及周围的地质构造和蓄水前后地震活动分析,总结了龙滩水库蓄水初期诱发地震的时间、空间和深度分布特征以及蓄水后库区水位变化与地震活动关系,讨论了龙滩库区蓄水初期诱发地震机理。     

Spectral element analysis on the characteristics of seismic wave propagation triggered by Wenchuan <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>s</Subscript>8.0 earthquake

The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake occurred in an active earthquake zone, i.e., Longmenshan tectonic zone. Seismic waves triggered by this earthquake can be used to explore the characteristics of the fault rupture process and the hierarchical structure of the Earth’s interior. We employ spectral element method incorporated with large-scale parallel computing technology, to investigate the characteristics of seismic wave propagation excited by Wenchuan earthquake. We calculate synthetic seismograms with one-point source model and three-point source model respectively. The AK135 model is employed as a prototype of our numerical global Earth model. The Earth’s ellipticity, Earth’s medium attenuation, and topography data are taken into consideration. These wave propagation processes are simulated by solving three-dimensional elastic wave governing equations. Three-dimensional visualization of our numerical results displays the profile of the seismic wave propagation. The three-point source, which is proposed from the latest investigations through field observation and reverse estimation, can better demonstrate the spatial and temporal characteristics of the source rupture process than the one-point source. We take comparison of synthetic seismograms with observational data recorded at 16 observatory stations. Primary results show that the synthetic seismograms calculated from three-point source agree well with the observations. This can further reveal that the source rupture process of Wenchuan earthquake is a multi-rupture process, which is composed by at least three or more stages of rupture processes. Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2004CB418406), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40774049 and 40474038), and Computer Network Information Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. INF105-SCE-02-12)     

水下岩质边坡稳定性的模型试验研究

随着三峡水利建设工程的进行,许多原本位于水面以上且已趋于稳定的人工或自然岩质边坡将被淹没,导致边坡稳定性降低,而水的压力、冲击、渗流和侵蚀等综合作用,给下岩质边坡的稳定性带来大量的不确定性。基于已有的水下土质边坡稳定性试验和水下岩质边坡有限元分析,进行水下岩质边坡模型试验研究,探讨在水位升降水过程中和波浪作用下水下岩质边坡的稳定性和破坏机制。将结构面为30°和50°的两种岩质边坡模型布置在人工水槽中,采用波流系统进行水位升降水波浪冲击试验,量测岩质边坡的应力变化。通过分析边坡各测点应力变化,得出了一些有意义的结论：（1）把边坡前部岩体划分成3个区域,每个区域内应力变化规律相同;（2）水下岩质边坡坡脚处应力集中最大,破坏始于坡脚,并由此产生的塑性区沿结构面逐渐同坡顶发展,这与一般边坡从坡顶逐渐向下发展的开裂破坏形式完全不同;（3）波浪对水下岩质边坡结构面的影响,将随其倾角的变小而减弱。