地震多属性综合解释的支持向量机方法研究

能够同时对多种属性进行训练,具有优秀推广能力的支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,简称SVM)方法是进行高精度地震参数预测的有力保障。然而,支持向量机中用于构建回归估计函数的参数最优解很难确定。针对该问题,通过建立数学模型进行参数选择研究,总结出了参数ε、C、σ2对样本预测的影响规律。在此基础上提出了求取惩罚因子C和核参数σ2的权系数公式。结合提出的参数求取公式,利用支持向量机方法,以地震属性为输入向量对渤海SZ36-1油田的砂泥岩百分比和孔隙度进行了预测。结果表明,利用该方法对储层参数进行预测具有较高的预测精度;权系数公式的提出极大地缩短了构建回归估计函数所耗用的时间,简化了参数选取的难度。     

中国粮食安全脆弱区的识别及空间分异

In view of food affordability and the threshold for food security, this paper has established an integrated index for assessing the vulnerability of food security in China, which is composed mainly of the balance between food supply and demand, the reserve for food security and the economic capacity for offset food demand. Six types of food security regions are identified based on the data from county-level statistics. At regional scale, China’s food security is not optimistic. Under normal conditions without the emergence of extreme disasters and decline of grain-sown areas, China’s most vulnerable areas (Type VI) account for 30.3% of the total number of counties (cities), which are unable to meet the ends by food productivity or market based measures at subsistence levels. In China, there are only 14.5% of the counties (cities) that could guarantee well-off food security through grain production (Type I) or economic measures to meet the demand by themselves (Type III). According to the different vulnerable levels of food security and its dominant forming factors, vulnerable regions of food security in China could be classified into three categories: (1) Vulnerable regions of food security dominated by natural factors (including Type IV and Type VIa), which account for 39.4% of the total number of counties (cities), mainly located in fragile ecologic zones, i.e., farming-grazing transitional zones in the marginal areas of summer monsoon, the poor hilly areas in southern China and so on; (2) Vulnerable regions of food security dominated by low ratio of grain-sown areas (including Type VIb and Type V), which account for 16.7% of the total number of counties (cities), mostly located in the developed areas in the eastern coast of China; (3) Potential vulnerable regions of food security with underdeveloped local economies (Type II), of which 57% are the main grain-surplus regions in China, mainly located in the areas of plains and basins with favorable climate.     

Geochemical evidence for the variation of historical seabird population on Dongdao Island of the South China Sea

From a rare freshwater lake characteristic of alkalescence, named “Cattle Pond”, on the Dongdao Island of South China Sea (16°39′–16°41′ N, 112°43′–112°45′ E), we collected two undisturbed sediment cores that contain seabird droppings. In this paper, we determined the concentration-versus-depth profiles of the geochemical elements in the ornithogenic sediment layers of the two cores, analyzed these profiles by various statistical methods, and studied their geochemical characteristics. The concentration profiles of As, Cd, Cu, Se, Zn, P and S are significantly correlated with each other and with loss on ignition (LOI) at 550°C, the measure for the abundance of organic matter. Similar geochemical characteristics, however, were not observed in the upper sediment layer of the Cattle Pond notably affected by cattle excrements, as well as in the bottom sediment layer compositionally dominated by coral sand and gravel. This shows that these “bio-elements” are mainly derived from seabird feces and their geochemical composition is an important geochemical characteristic of the lacustrine ornithogenic sediments. By Q-mode factor analysis (QFA) on the concentration profiles of these bio-elements, we reconstructed the historical seabird population on Dongdao Island between 1350 and 350 year B.P., and observed significant fluctuations in the calculated population. The fluctuations seem to be related to the change of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Southern China Sea. This study provides new paleoenvironmental information of past seabird population changes in low latitude areas using an indirect geochemical method.     

Automatic recognition of damaged town buildings caused by earthquake using remote sensing information: Taking the 2001 Bhuj, India, earthquake and the 1976 Tangshan, China, earthquake as examples

Introduction As we well know, the hazard of earthquake is very wide especially in cities. The conventionalmethods to investigate the damage are difficult to meet the requirements in applications. In recentyears, with the rapid development of remote sensing, especially the successful launch and applica-tion of high-resolution commercial remote sensing satellite, it has become possible to recognize andextract damage information by using remote sensing. The researchers at home and abroad hav…     

八角形FPSO串靠外输系统耦合动力响应分析

针对100 m作业水深的八角形FPSO,提出采用穿梭油轮串靠的外输方案,研究串靠外输在南海的适用性。建立由八角形FPSO及其系泊系统、穿梭油轮及FPSO与穿梭油轮之间的系泊大缆等组成的浮式多体动力学模型,根据多浮体动力学理论进行耦合时域模拟。在外输海况条件下,分析了串靠连接的环境适应性及研究大缆载荷的响应特性,对连接大缆的长度、刚度等关键参数进行了敏感性分析。研究表明,串靠外输的形式对于八角FPSO具有足够的安全性和可靠性,系泊大缆受到明显的冲击张力,张力的幅值受大缆的长度和刚度影响较大。     

水温对南美白对虾肠道菌群影响的研究

在不同温度下 ,对南美白对虾 (Penaeusvannamei)肠道乳酸杆菌(Lactobacillussp.)、双歧杆菌(Bifidobactsp.)、大肠杆菌(Escherichiacoli)、金黄色葡萄球菌(Staphylococcusaureus)、副溶血性弧菌(Vibrioparahaemolyticus)、产气荚膜梭菌产气荚膜梭菌(Clostridiumperfringens)、厌氧菌总数和好氧菌总数进行了定性定量分析。结果表明 ,大肠杆菌、金黄色葡萄球菌、副溶血性弧菌、产气荚膜梭菌为过路菌群 ;乳酸杆菌、双歧杆菌为常住菌群。厌氧菌总数、双歧杆菌随水温升高显著增加 (Ftest,P<0.01) ;好氧菌总数、乳酸杆菌随水温升高变化不显著(Ftest,P>0.05)。肠道中厌氧菌总数比好氧菌多(ttest,P<0.05) ,且随着水温升高 ,厌氧菌的优势越明显。     

Research of Power Take-off System for “Sharp Eagle Ⅱ” Wave Energy Converter

The "Sharp Eagle" device is a wave energy converter of a hinged double floating body. The wave-absorbing floating body hinges on the semi-submerged floating body structure. Under the action of wave, the wave-absorbing floating body rotates around the hinge point, and the wave energy can be converted into kinetic energy. In this paper, the power take-off system of "Sharp Eagle II" wave energy converter(the second generation of "Sharp Eagle") was studied, which adopts the hydraulic type power take-off system. The 0-1 power generation mode was applied in this system to make the "Sharp Eagle II" operate under various wave conditions. The principle of power generation was introduced in detail, and the power take-off system was simulated. Three groups of different movement period inputs were used to simulate three kinds of wave conditions, and the simulation results were obtained under three different working conditions. In addition, the prototype of "Sharp Eagle II" wave energy converter was tested on land and in real sea conditions. The experimental data have been collected, and the experimental data and simulation results were compared and validated. This work has laid a foundation for the design and application of the following "Sharp Eagle" series of devices.     

气候模式中海洋数据同化对热带降水偏差的影响

本文采用海洋卫星观测海表温度(SST)和海面高度异常(SLA)数据,对国家海洋局第一海洋研究所地球系统模式FIO-ESM(First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model version 1.0)中海洋模式分量进行了集合调整卡尔曼滤波(EAKF)同化,对比分析了大气环流、湿度和云量对海洋数据同化的响应,探讨了海洋同化对热带降水模拟偏差的影响。结果表明:海洋数据同化能有效改善海表温度和上层海洋热含量的模拟,30°S~30°N纬度带内年平均SST的绝均差降低60%。同化后大气模式模拟的赤道两侧信风得到明显改善,上升气流在赤道以北热带地区增强而在赤道以南热带地区减弱,热带降水模拟的动力结构更为合理,水汽和云量分布也更切合实际。热带年平均降水的空间分布和强度在同化后均得到改善,赤道以南的纬向年平均降水峰值显著降低,降水偏差明显减小,同化后30°S~30°N纬度带内年平均降水绝均差降低35%。     

Predicting climate anomalies:A real challenge

过去几十年,气候变化和极端气候事件造成的经济损失和灾害显著增加.虽然全球的科学家在理解和预测气候变异方面做出了巨大的努力,但当前在气候预测领域仍然存在几个重大难题.2020年,依托于国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目的气候系统预测研究中心(CCSP)成立了,该中心旨在应对和处理气候预测领域的三大科学难题:厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)预测,延伸期天气预报,年际-年代际气候预测,并为更加准确的气候预测和更加有效的灾害防御提供科学依据.因此,本文介绍了CCSP的主要目标和面对的科学挑战,回顾了CCSP在季风动力过程,陆-气相互作用和模式开发,ENSO变率,季节内振荡,气候预测等方面已取得的重要研究成果.未来CCSP将继续致力于解决上述领域的关键科学问题.     

1961—2010年我国夏季高温热浪的时空变化特征

利用全国753个站1961—2010年夏季逐日最高气温资料和基于死亡率明显增加而制定的高温热浪指标的已有研究成果,统计分析了我国高温热浪频次、日数和强度的时空分布特征。结果表明:我国的高温热浪频次、日数、强度高值区基本相同,均在江淮、江南大部和四川盆地东部等地,其中江西北部、浙江北部高温热浪频次最高,高温日数最多;浙江北部高温强度尤为突出。近50年来我国夏季高温热浪的频次、日数和强度总体呈增多、增强趋势,但也呈现明显的阶段性变化特征,20世纪60—80年代前期高温热浪频次和强度呈减少(弱)趋势,80年代后期以来,高温热浪频次和强度呈增多(强)趋势。区域变化特征明显,华北北部和西部、西北中北部、华南中部、长江三角洲及四川盆地南部呈显著增多(强)趋势;而黄淮西部、江汉地区呈显著减少趋势。自20世纪90年代以来,我国高温热浪的范围明显增大。