南京市城市居民对乡村旅游发展的感知及旅游行为研究

运用问卷调查法和基于SPSS软件的统计分析法,以南京市为例,从城市居民感知视角考察乡村旅游的发展情况。从旅游偏好、旅游频率和空间分布等方面探讨城市居民的乡村旅游行为特征,并进一步分析了乡村旅游的知晓度、居民对各乡村旅游点开发水平的感知与其空间分布之间的相关关系,以及居民对乡村旅游发展总体印象与旅游频率之间的相关关系。在此基础上,提出南京市乡村旅游发展的有关对策与建议。     

干旱荒漠区土地利用方式快速转变对土壤入渗性能的影响

研究不同土地利用类型下土壤入渗及其影响因素,有助于城市土地利用管理及径流调节。以快速城市化的兰州新区6种土地利用类型为例,利用圆盘入渗仪,对土壤水分入渗过程进行了实地测量,并利用主成分分析对影响因素进行研究。结果表明：城市化过程中土地利用变化使土壤砂粒和容重增加,总孔隙度和饱和含水量降低;待建地和人工林地的土壤入渗参数值均低于其他土地利用类型。土壤入渗率与有机质含量、总孔隙度、饱和含水量、粉粒含量正相关,与容重和砂粒、黏粒含量负相关。城市化过程中土地利用类型向待建地的转变改变了土壤理化性质及土壤水分入渗能力。     

2008年“凤凰”台风暴雨的水汽和螺旋度分析

本文利用NCEP/NCAR1°×1°再分析格点资料和降水实况数据,对"0808"号台风"凤凰"在登陆福建前后引发浙闽沿海地区的暴雨过程进行水汽和螺旋度分析。结果表明:东海和南海是此次强降水的主要水汽供应源。水汽输送辐合主要出现在低层,950 hPa水汽通量散度幅合场对强降水落区有较好的指示作用。台风登陆福建之前,东边界的水汽输入起主导作用;登陆福建后,南边界的水汽输入逐渐起主导作用。800 hPa螺旋度正值区对未来6 h强降水落区有很好的指示意义。同时,螺旋度强度演变对未来6 h的降水强度有较好的正相关关系。水汽收支演变表明净水汽输入量对于降水强度演变的指示效果不及螺旋度,但是整层净水汽输入明显减小时,可预见其后降水强度减小。     

1961—2016年江西不同量级暴雨的时空分布特征

利用江西省83个站点逐日降水资料,采用滑动平均、小波分析和Mann Kendall检验等方法,分析了1961—2016年江西春季(3—5月)、汛期(5—7月)、秋季(9—11月)不同量级暴雨的时空分布特征。结果表明：不同量级的暴雨在不同季节的变化特征存在明显的差异,降水主要集中在汛期。暴雨量在春季和秋季变化趋势平稳,而汛期在1990年之前呈减少趋势,之后呈增加趋势;其空间分布均呈“南少北多、东多西少”特征;存在准30 a和准10 a两个变化周期。大暴雨量在春季和汛期呈“先下降、后上升”的趋势,空间分布较为平均。特大暴雨发生的概率很小,主要集中在汛期,其降水量变化趋势呈“先下降、后上升”特征,空间分布集中在赣北中部和赣中东部。     

大地形上边界层流场的动力学研究

本文应用边界层气象学中Estoque数值模式关于湍流交换系数及分层的处理方法,求得了大地形存在时定常边界展方程的零、一级解析解,并用来得到大地形存在时边界层的散度场、垂直速度场,改进了前人的结果。     

日降水量空间插值方法研究

采用反距离权重法和普通克里格方法对26°~34°N, 103°~115°E范围内2004年逐日降水量进行空间插值试验分析, 分辨率为1 km×1 km。采用交叉检验方法和准确率方法对两种方法插值的总体效果及不同等级的降水插值效果进行综合对比。结果表明:两种方法插值效果近似, 插值结果与实测值相关系数分别为0.83和0.82。但对日雨量较大的情况, 两种方法插值效果均有所降低, 相关系数为0.66和0.67。两种方法的实测值与插值结果的相关系数在不同季节非常接近, 并且均以春季最大, 其次为冬、秋季, 夏季相关系数最小; 通过采用平均误差、平均绝对误差和均方根3个指标衡量及不同等级雨量的插值准确率统计比较, 普通克里格方法插值效果略好于反距离权重法。     

人工触发闪电电流及磁场变化特征对比

对2006年山东人工触发闪电实验中获取的一次传统触发闪电的电流及60 m处的磁感应强度变化波形对比分析的结果表明,Rogowski线圈和磁场测量系统记录到的波形很类似.这次闪电共包含两次回击,回击的时间间隔约为34 ms.两次回击的电流幅值很大,分别为41.6 kA和29.6 kA,在60 m处产生的磁感应强度变化分别为133μT和97μT,通过磁感应强度反演得到两次回击的电流分别为39.8 kA和29.1 kA,与Rogowski线圈的实测结果基本一致.另外,回击之前放电过程中仅出现了两个脉冲,利用所测磁感应强度反演得到两个脉冲对应的电流分别为2.11 kA和2.7 kA,与Rogowski线圈的实测结果2.1 kA和2.8 kA基本一致.     

省级气象预报业务系统软件工程开发原则与技术

针对新时期技术装备不断更新、探测手段日益丰富、信息量急剧增长的技术形势,根据气象预报业务对软件系统工程的具体需求,及目前省级气象预报业务软件系统开发人员的具体状况,从可靠性、开放性、可移植性及工作效率等多方面入手,讨论了气象预报业务软件系统工程开发的原则,并对具体技术措施进行了分析。     

Properties and stability of a meso-scale line-form disturbance

By using the 3D dynamic equations for small- and meso-scale disturbances, an investigation is performed on the heterotropic instability (including symmetric instability and traversal-type instability) of a zonal line-like disturbance moving at any angle with respect to basic flow, arriving at the following results: (1) with linear shear available, the heterotropic instability of the disturbance will occur only when flow shearing happens in the direction of the line-like disturbance movement or in the direction perpendicular to the disturbance movement, with the heterotropic instability showing the instability of the internal inertial gravity wave; (2) in the presence of second-order non-linear shear, the disturbance of the heterotropic instability includes internal inertial gravity and vortex Rossby waves. For the zonal line-form disturbance under study, the vortex Rossby wave has its source in the second-order shear of meridional basic wind speed in the flow and propagates unidirectionally with respect to the meridional basic flow. As a mesoscale heterotropic instable disturbance, the vortex Rossby wave has its origin from the second shear of the flow in the direction perpendicular to the line-form disturbance and is independent of the condition in the direction parallel to the flow; (3) for general zonal line-like disturbances, if the second-order shear happens in the meridional wind speed, i.e., the second shear of the flow in the direction perpendicular to the line-form disturbance, then the heterotropic instability of the disturbance is likely to be the instability of a mixed Rossby–internal inertial gravity wave; (4) the symmetric instability is actually the instability of the internal inertial gravity wave. The second-order shear in the flow represents an instable factor for a symmetric-type disturbance; (5) the instability of a traversal-type disturbance is the instability of the internal inertial gravity wave when the basic flow is constant or only linearly sheared. With a second or nonlinear vertical shear of the basic flow taken into account, the instability of a traversal-type disturbance may be the instability of a mixed vortex Rossby – gravity wave.     

Monitoring global land surface drought based on a hybrid evapotranspiration model

The latent heat of evapotranspiration (ET) plays an important role in the assessment of drought severity as one sensitive indicator of land drought status. A simple and accurate method of estimating global ET for the monitoring of global land surface droughts from remote sensing data is essential. The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid ET model by introducing empirical coefficients based on a simple linear two-source land ET model, and to then use this model to calculate the Evaporative Drought Index (EDI) based on the actual estimated ET and the potential ET in order to characterize global surface drought conditions. This is done using the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) products, AVHRR-NDVI products from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) group, and National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis-2 (NCEP-2) datasets. We randomly divided 22 flux towers into two groups and performed a series of cross-validations using ground measurements collected from the corresponding flux towers. The validation results from the second group of flux towers using the data from the first group for calibration show that the daily bias varies from −6.72 W/m² to 12.95 W/m² and the average monthly bias is −1.73 W/m². Similarly, the validation results of the first group of flux towers using data from second group for calibration show that the daily bias varies from −12.91 W/m² to 10.26 W/m² and the average monthly bias is −3.59 W/m². To evaluate the reliability of the hybrid ET model on a global scale, we compared the estimated ET from the GEWEX, AVHRR-GIMMS-NDVI, and NECP-2 datasets with the latent heat flux from the Global Soil Wetness Project-2 (GSWP-2) datasets. We found both of them to be in good agreement, which further supports the validity of our model's global ET estimation. Significantly, the patterns of monthly EDI anomalies have a good spatial and temporal correlation with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) anomalies from January 1984 to December 2002, which indicates that the method can be used to accurately monitor long-term global land surface drought.